Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
715 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Latest update...
aviation
Synopsis...
issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
High pressure to bring warmer and dry weather Thursday and
Friday. Warm temperatures on track to remain in place through all
of next week. There will be a chance for thunderstorms late Friday
afternoon through the early part of next week.
&&
Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Low chance for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and Friday
night...otherwise a quiet short term period with warming
temperatures...and overall little cloud cover.
High pressure that will bring warmer air into southwest lower
Michigan Thursday and Friday should keep any showers Friday
afternoon and evening limited and mostly off to our north or
northwest. This high pressure should also help to slow down
approaching warm front Friday night keeping chances for storms low
then as well. Best chance for any storms this next week in the
long term.
Long term...(saturday through wednesday)
issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Overall the thinking hasnt changed much with the forecast. Agree
with the previous forecaster that the best chance of rain looks to be
Saturday.
The upper ridge in place to the west will begin to tilt toward the
northeast with the result being short waves riding northeastward from the
plains will begin to cross lower Michigan. At the same time a warm
front will be in place across the northern County Warning Area Saturday. Given the
abundant moisture in place by then...instability will be moderately
high and the combination of numerous short waves and a frontal
boundary nearby should result in thunderstorm development. Low shear
values should preclude any severe storms however.
The general SW flow will continue into next week as the warm front
moves north. Will keep chance probability of precipitation in the grids through the period.
Decent low level jet over the Mississippi Valley may kick off nocturnal mesoscale convective system
development over Minnesota/WI which would then move east-southeast. Models show a
deeper trough moving across the upper Midwest Tuesday
night/Wednesday. This should increase our precipitation chances again.
Muggy conditions will be present through the period with highs in
the middle to upper 80s and dewpoints around 70.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 712 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
High confidence for VFR conditions through the period. After
nearly calm winds overnight...light winds from the southwest are
expected by Thursday afternoon.
&&
Marine...
issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Light winds and little wave activity expected tonight through
Friday. Thunderstorm chances late Friday afternoon through the
weekend with potential hazards to boaters and swimmers from any
thunderstorms that develop.
&&
Hydrology...
issued at 305 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
No precipitation expected through Friday. Scattered thunderstorms
Saturday through the middle of next week could bring periods of
moderate to heavy precipitation to the region...but at this time no
hydrology issues are expected to occur in the next week.
&&
GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
Lm...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...maczko
short term...maczko
long term...93
aviation...tjt
hydrology...maczko
marine...maczko
