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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
748 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Latest update...

issued at 330 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

High pressure will build into the northern Great Lakes region
today bringing partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. The
high will remain in control and bring pleasant weather with
seasonable temperatures Saturday. It will be mild on Sunday as
winds become southerly and help to boost temperatures up to near
the 70 degree mark Sunday afternoon. The next chance for rain of
any significance will not come until Sunday night or Monday.


Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 330 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Isolated light rain showers and sprinkles will continue through the
early to middle morning hours over our southeast forecast area before ending.
Otherwise a high pressure ridge will build in from the northwest later
today and remain in control of the weather tonight through Saturday
bringing fair weather with seasonable temperatures.

It will become mild Sunday with some sun and southerly flow warm
air advection helping to boost maximum temperatures into the 65 to 70 degree
range near to south of I-96. There is just a small chance of an
isolated light rain shower or sprinkle across our extreme northern
counties Sunday but the better chance for rain will stay north to
northwest of our forecast area through Sunday afternoon.

Maximum temperatures Sunday will hold in the 60 to 65 degree range across
the northern third of our forecast area due to more extensive cloud
cover up there.

Long term...(sunday night through thursday)
issued at 330 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Rain is expected across the northern zones Sunday night in area of
isentropic ascent. Elevated instability looks to be marginal for
this event and thunder potential is low enough to avoid in the

Weak surface trough slowly moves through Monday and Monday night but
washes out with only scattered showers expected. Fair weather
expected Tuesday and Wednesday under weak surface ridging. The ridging
moves east by Thursday with moist return flow arriving and the
chance of showers late in the day. Main batch of precipitation should hold
off until surface low arrives...which appears to be past the end of the
extended period on Friday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 748 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Patchy IFR will persist this morning across central and southeast
lower Michigan including btl. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through tonight. Northwest winds will be around 10 knots
today decreasing tonight.


issued at 1146 am EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Numerous areal flood warnings were canceled today based on
updated reports from Road commissions and emergency managers that
conditions were improving. For Newaygo...Osceola...and Isabella
counties the area Flood Warning continues until widespread
improvement in Road conditions occurs due to a recession of the
flood waters.

Moderate to major flooding on the Muskegon river continues with a
slow recession forecasted. Evart will hold above major flood stage
until Saturday night while Croton will hold above moderate flood
stage until Saturday night as well. As such...significant flood
impacts will continue to plague properties along the Muskegon
river through much of the weekend unfortunately. The Croton dam
operation continues to reduce flows downstream...leading to a slow
and steady decline in river levels for interests in Newaygo and
Muskegon counties. The good news is no significant rainfall is in
over the next several the river recession will continue.

The pere Marquette and Chippewa rivers continue to hold between
minor and moderate flood stage with both rivers expected to drop
below flood stage within the next day or two. Impacts from flood
waters will continue until then.


GRR watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Laurens
long term...ostuno