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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
314 PM EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Latest update...
synopsis/short term/long term/marine

Synopsis...
issued at 314 PM EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Some light rain tonight and Friday with quiet weather expected
through the weekend. Cooler and showery weather is expected for the
next week.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 314 PM EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Slower progression of the system moving in from the west combined
with strong influx of dry air from the southeast today will lead
to a later start time for rain and also lower amounts of
precipitation over the next 24 hours. Some sprinkles might be
possible this evening but if they occur they should be short
lived.

More organized precipitation looks to hold off until around or
shortly after midnight with rain slowly working across the state
through midday Friday. Overall not a large amount of rain
expected...maybe a quarter inch or more in some locations. Have
adjusted probability of precipitation for slower timing and also have trended tomorrow
high temperatures down to account for rain and clouds expected
throughout the day.

Precipitation should move off quickly Friday afternoon with a
drier and somewhat cool weekend with high temperatures in the 50s
and low temperatures near to above freezing.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 314 PM EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

An Omega block will rule the early portion of the long term...with
an upper low off the New England coast and another over the plains.
This puts an upper ridge over the Great Lakes. Atlantic moisture
will attempt to advect into the Great Lakes with the persistent southeast
flow...but it will likely struggle. Will maintain low chance probability of precipitation
Sunday and Monday...but amounts should only be around a tenth of an
inch for this 36 hour period...a little higher SW...a bit lower NE.
The minimal precipitation should allow for temperatures in the 50s...so bumped up
maximum temperatures a bit.

Eventually the plains upper low will drift our way...but as it does
it will continue to only move slowly across the region. High chance
or likely probability of precipitation will be carried for the Tuesday through Thursday time
frame. As the low moves closer we should experience a cool down in
temperatures Wednesday into Thursday.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 121 PM EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

VFR conditions are expected through much...if not all...of the
next 24 hours. The main concern will remain the brisk southeast winds
which will gust up to 25 knots this afternoon into tonight. These
winds will finally drop off around sunrise Friday morning.

There will be a front and low pressure that will cross the region
early Friday morning. The system lacks solid moisture and mostly
VFR conditions are expected with it/S passage. However patchy MVFR
can not be completely ruled out toward I-94...but this was not
included in the tafs at this time. The system will support a few
rain showers...the bulk of which should occur between 10-15z Friday.

&&

Marine...
issued at 314 PM EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

1 to 3 foot waves in gusty winds are expected tonight through early
Friday morning. This will result in some hazardous wave conditions
to small craft.

&&

Hydrology...
issued at 121 PM EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Rivers continue to recede and the only site still above bankfull as
of noon Thursday is Evart. It too should fall below bankfull Friday
night or Saturday.

Rain is likely late tonight and early Friday with general amounts of
one tenth to one quarter inch. This will have little impact on the
overall falling trend of the rivers. More showers are likely next
week but no heavy rain is expected at this time.

&&

GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Michigan...none.
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Friday for lmz844>849.

&&

$$

Synopsis...maczko
short term...maczko
long term...jk
aviation...jk
hydrology...Meade
marine...maczko