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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan
306 am EDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Latest update...
synopsis/short term/long term/Hydro/marine

issued at 305 am EDT Monday Sep 15 2014

A cold front will bring some rain today. Fair weather will return
tonight as high pressure moves in. The next chance for rain will
be over the weekend as another cold front moves through.


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 305 am EDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Narrow line of showers across the northern lower Michigan at this time
will be expanding and moving south today as upper divergence
precedes passage of 500 mb trough axis and surface cold front. Rain
should be ending from northwest to southeast late this afternoon
and early evening with storm total quantitative precipitation forecast expected to be around a
quarter inch. Height rises follow tonight as upper trough shifts
east with surface ridging building in so we should see clearing by

Long term...(wednesday night through sunday)
issued at 305 am EDT Monday Sep 15 2014

The long term portion will start out rather quiet...and will become
a bit unsettled toward next weekend.

The only item of note through Thursday night will be a backdoor cold
front that will approach the area from the NE on Wednesday night and into
early Thursday. We will see a fairly robust upper trough slip by just to
our NE at that time. This will try to drag a cold front into the
area. We will see a surface ridge move north of the area and low level
NE flow will try to advect cooler air in across the state.

We will see a warm up across the area then late into this week and
at least the first half of the upcoming weekend. The trend has been
for less energy to move out of the western storm and lift NE into
Canada. We will see an upper ridge across the eastern rockies and plains
eventually get flattened out with jet energy plowing into it. As
this is happening...a cold front will begin to approach the area
with a nice flow of moisture coming in from the Gulf. The front
looks to potentially lay out along the nearly zonal pattern and
stall out.

We could be looking at multiple rounds of rain if this front stalls
out near the area. It is not a given that it will stall out...and it
could be more progressive and move through a little quicker. Either
way...the best chances of rain look to be centered around Sat with
warmer air. Temperatures will eventually cool off late in the period or
early next week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 135 am EDT Monday Sep 15 2014

VFR conditions prevail first thing this morning across the entire
area. All areas will see deterioration of ceilings and vbsys later this
morning and this afternoon as rain will spread in from the north
and west today. With a wave of low pressure. We expect lots of
low scale MVFR to rule as the lower clouds and rain moves in. IFR
and lower conditions will be possible.

We expect that the rain should move out this evening. Residual low
clouds could hold on across the I-94 terminals for a bit. Clouds
will try to clear out from the northwest late in the evening and overnight.


issued at 305 am EDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Will drop the Small Craft Advisory at 5 am as winds and waves are
decreasing...with 2 to 4 foot waves expected today.


issued at 305 am EDT Monday Sep 15 2014

No Hydro issues.


GRR watches/warnings/advisories...
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for lmz846>849.



short term...ostuno
long term...njj

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