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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VILAS COUNTY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAD NOT FALLEN QUITE AS
FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WINDS WERE LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...
WIND CHILLS WERE STILL MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A DOZEN
OBSERVATION SITES...AND WERE CLOSE AT SEVERAL OTHERS. WILL LET
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RUN UNTIL THE PLANNED EXPIRATION TIME
AT 9 AM.

EXPECT REMAINING LAKE-EFFECT TO END THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR AT 850 MB PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY
EDGES EAST. MIN TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...WITH A COLD START...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTING VERY COLD TEMPS.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING MILDER AIR AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE. THE RECENT BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS WERE FORECASTING MUCH MILDER READINGS
THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL
FACTORS...ONLY DECIDED TO EDGE MIN TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT MOST
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW A LITTLE
BIT...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT ARRIVING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF
INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...TO AN INCH
OR INCH AND A HALF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. SOME LAKE-EFFECT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SE WINDS...BUT DETAILS
ARE SKETCHY RIGHT NOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S...WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.  IN GENERAL...THEY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL.  BESIDES TEMPERATURES...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
TAKE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DISJOINTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH LOW MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...FORCING IS
MODEST AND MAY GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA DUE
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  IN
ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION.  WILL SIDE WITH THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.  THIS WOULD GIVE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH
TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE BEFORE THE SNOW PULLS OUT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S RANGE ON
MONDAY.  

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND PROVIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN.  AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF SOME TYPE AS WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTH.  LOW PRESSURE IS THEN IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BY THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF
HI PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS LATE TNGT AND MID CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DROPS SE THRU THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A WRMFNT
STRETCHED ACROSS IA/IL. INCREASING ISEN LIFT IS FCST TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WL MAINLY PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...BUT
STILL BRING SOME LGT SNOW TO NE WI. CIGS/VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE LGT SNOW BEGINS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK

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