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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER WITHOUT
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH WIND SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT
TRACKS EAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN MUCAPE VALUES
SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION. THE GFS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG WITH THE NAM
JUST ABOUT DOUBLE THAT AT AROUND 4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THE LESS
UNSTABLE GFS VERIFIES THAT IS STILL A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS IN MARGINAL OR ON THE CUSP OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC OUTLOOKS...WHICH IS
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL TRACK AND
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO PUSH OFF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING 
WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT FOR MUCH 
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO TROUGHING LOCATED OVER 
ONTARIO AND MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING WISCONSIN.  THE ECMWF 
IS QUICKER SHIFTING THIS PATTERN TO THE EAST THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BY 
THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF THROUGH 
12Z TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE QUICKER EXITING A 
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WITH SB CAPES 
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE THREAT OF STRONG TO 
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS.  WITH 0-
6KM AROUND 45 KTS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN ANY STORMS.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL 
INVADE FROM THE NORTH.  SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY 
THOUGH WILL SEE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  PROGGED 
SOUNDINGS LOOKED CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS COLDER AIR 
ALOFT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE IMPULSES TO KICK OFF SHOWERS.  
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH.  NOT UNREASONABLE THAT 
ANY SHOWER THREAT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY 
NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOME SHOWERS COULD ALSO OCCUR ON TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...THEN THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO 
PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE 
REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON 
TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAYS READINGS. HIGH PRESSURE TO LINGER 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE THREAT OF PRECIP RETURNS LATE IN 
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ARRIVES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. PLACED A PROB30 GROUP IN LATE
TONIGHT FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER AS COVERAGE IS NOT
CERTAIN. SOME LLWS IS PSBL AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z...THEN AROUND
08Z AT ATW/GRB/MTW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI

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