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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1053 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Updated aviation portion for 06z taf issuance

issued at 254 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

A slow-moving storm system will bring mixed precipitation to the
area during the early to middle part of the week. The best
potential for snow will be over north-central Wisconsin...where
several inches of accumulation is possible.

The upper flow across western and central noam is currently split...with
a southern stream trough over the southwestern Continental U.S....S of a northern stream ridge near
the West Coast. The southwestern Continental U.S. Upper trough will migrate
eastward...eventually merging back into the northern stream over the eastern
Continental U.S.. that will result in a more consolidate flow regime by late in
the week...though the flow will probably split back apart

The main weather maker during the period will be the southwestern upper low
as it crosses the area during the Erly to middle part of the
upcoming work week. That will probably be sufficient to bring precipitation
totals close to seasonal normals. The split flow regime will keep
cold air bottled up way north of the area...resulting in above normal
temperatures for the period.

Short term...tonight and Sunday
issued at 254 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Quiet conditions are expected tonight and Sunday. High clouds to the
S could brush southern areas at times...and some middle clouds moving across
mainly southern Canada and the Lake Superior region could brush the north.
Overall though...generally clear skies are expected.

Looks like good radiational cooling conditions tonight...especially across the
far north where an inch or two of snow cover exists. Lowered mins from
previous levels a little below the lowest of the guidance
products. The lack of snow cover should limit the temperature fall
some across the rest of the area. Stuck close to a blend of top
performing guidance products for maximum temperatures Sunday.

Long term...Sunday night through Saturday
issued at 254 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

A low pressure system will move northeast into the Midwest during
the first half of next week. This event is the primary focus of the
long term portion of the forecast. Models have generally become a
little more progressive with advancing chances for precipitation
into northeast Wisconsin on Monday. The precipitation will begin
as rain in most of the region and then switch to a wintry mix by
Monday night. From that point forward...both diurnal temperature
changes and vagaries associated with the track of the low pressure
system center will influence precipitation type. The system is
prognosticated to move out...with precipitation Wednesday
evening. After that...dry conditions are expected with seasonable
temperatures through the weekend.

Aviation...for 06z taf issuance
issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Quiet weather with generally good flight conditions expected the
next 24 hours. Temperatures could fall off enough to allow some patchy fog
to form tonight. That would be most likely to affect the rhi taf
site. Otherwise...a lake cloud band may develop over Lake Michigan
tonight...but seems unlikely to shift far enough westward to bring more
than scattered clouds to mtw.

VFR conditions will prevail into Sunday...however a deck of middle
clouds located over Iowa is expected to advect in over Wisconsin
later Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening. Conditions are
expected to remain VFR with bases in the 6-8k feet range.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...


short term.....Skowronski

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