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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1130 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Updated aviation portion for 18z taf issuance

Short Saturday
issued at 327 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Area radars shows mainly rain east of the Fox River...while
observations to the west indicate light snow. Correlation
coefficient display indicates a changeover to snow and sleet
working toward the Lakeshore...perhaps around mtw County between
09z and 10z. Temperatures were dropping to the freezing mark over
east central Wisconsin so will continue with a Special Weather Statement due to the
initially wet roads.

Scattered snow showers were noted over northern Minnesota with a
middle level trough and a colder environment. This middle level trough
is prognosticated to slide over the north this morning so will continue
a snow shower mention across the north for this feature as well as
lake effect snow showers. May need to keep a small mention of snow
showers early this morning east of the Fox River until the cold
front departs far enough East.

Ridge of high pressure will then settle into the region today into
Saturday for a quiet stretch of weather. With the new snow cover
across the north...will continue with the colder guidance numbers
for tonight's lows.

Long term...Saturday night through Thursday
issued at 327 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Main weather maker during this period will be a closed 500mb low
moving across the middle portion of the United States early next
week. Enough mild air in place that this system will bring a mixed
bag of precipitation...mainly rain or snow. Since system is closed
at 500mb...trended toward the slower European model (ecmwf) solution which at this
time would bring the precipitation into the area Monday night.
850mb temperatures will collapse later Monday night into Tuesday
as colder air works in from the southwest. System has some
potential for an accumulating snow during this time frame. Light
snow will linger into Tuesday night as system moves away from the

Except for a cold night Saturday night...temperatures during the
period should average above normal with no real Arctic air in

Aviation...for 18z taf issuance
issued at 1124 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Widespread MVFR ceilings will gradually erode from northwest to southeast later
this afternoon and early evening as a ridge of high pressure and
associated drier air moves in. The clouds may linger near the
Lakeshore...including the mtw taf site...due to possible lake-
enhancement with north-northeast winds. Have low clouds breaking up around
22z at rhi...00z at auw/cwa...01z at grb/atw...and 06z at mtw.

VFR conditions...with mostly clear skies and light winds...will
prevail overnight into Saturday morning.


Grb watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term.....Tdh
long term......eckberg

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