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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
533 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

Updated aviation portion for 12z taf issuance

Short Saturday
issued at 348 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

Light snow showers or flurries were gradually winding down early
this morning as drier colder air on north to northwest winds were
pouring into the area. Lake effect snow showers over north central
Wisconsin were also tapering off early this morning as a surface
high pressure ridge drifts toward the area. Sat imagery shows
plenty of clouds over the northeast portion of the state this
morning. Anticipate some decrease in the clouds northward...but
middle level clouds ahead of the next short wave will be back on the
increase today in the northwest flow and 80 knots jet let.

Warm air advection precipitation with the next short wave system already noted over North
Dakota this morning and will track over the northern Great Lakes
region tonight. Main dynamics with this system north of the area
so minor probability of precipitation will continue. Weak warm air advection ahead of this system and
increasing clouds will produce near steady temperatures overnight.
With the warmer start Saturday morning...temperatures will have a
chance to rebound well into the 20s before the cold front sags
southward again later in the day. Minor Lake effect snow showers
will likely be on the increase again over north central Wisconsin.

Long term...Saturday night through Thursday
issued at 348 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

There is a chance for some lake effect snow in northern Wisconsin
on Saturday night into Sunday behind a departing clipper system.
There is also a chance for snow across central Wisconsin as snow
associated with a central/Southern Plains system moves into the
state as the system begins to phase with a another system in the
northern branch of upper flow. There could be some lake effect
snow showers in north central Wisconsin...and in the eastern part
of the state with low level onshore flow near Lake Michigan. The
best chance for lake effect would be south of the forecast area
but have some chance probability of precipitation going for Sunday evening...before winds
back a bit and become less favorable for lake effect in the east.

Expect generally low amplitude upper flow across the region for
the early part of next week. High pressure should keep the area
dry on Monday...but weak and fast moving systems will then impact
the area through midweek and temperatures behind them will be
cold...though coldest air will remain to our north until later in
the week.

Aviation...for 12z taf issuance
issued at 532 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015

Clouds plumes from Lake Superior hanging tough early this
morning...ranging from MVFR levels over northern Wisconsin to a
lower end VFR condition over east central Wisconsin. Anticipate
remaining MVFR conditions to improve to VFR conditions later this
morning as winds begin to turn more west then southwest this
afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure trough. Any snow
with this system should be of the patchy MVFR ceiling and visibility variety
and should be confined over northern tonight.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term.....Tdh

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