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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
534 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015

Updated aviation portion for 12z taf issuance

Short term...today...tonight...and Sunday
issued at 256 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015

Temperatures and small precipitation chances will be the main forecast concerns.

High pressure over the Great Lakes will bring another sunny day to
northeast WI today. After another cold morning...temperatures are expected
to warm into the upper teens and lower 20s.

Low to middle-level moisture will increase across the region during
the late evening and overnight...but forcing will be weak. Any
measurable precipitation is expected to split around the forecast area...
but scattered flurries are possible. Min temperatures will be much milder than
the previous several nights...with readings mainly in the single
digits above zero.

A cold front will move into the region on Sunday...and reach
eastern WI late in the afternoon. A short wave trough will arrive late
in the day...and there may be deep enough saturation near the
front to support scattered snow showers there. Elsewhere...mostly
cloudy skies and scattered flurries are expected. Temperatures will moderate...
with highs reaching the middle 20s to around 30 range.

Long term...Sunday night through Friday
issued at 256 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015

Upper flow at the start of the period will consist of a ridge
over the West Coast with a trough extending southwest from Hudson
Bay to California. A short wave ejecting from the upper trough
will bring a significant system to the central Continental U.S. As it
approaches. Models have this system bringing accumulating snow to
the forecast area late Monday night through Tuesday night.
Surface return flow behind a departing high pressure system will
bring increasing moisture and warmer air in south/southwest flow
by Monday evening. It will take a little while before saturation
occurs across the forecast area...but snow is likely across the
entire area by 12z Tuesday. There are some differences in snowfall
totals among the models...but it looks like there will be at least
advisory criteria snowfall in central and east central Wisconsin.
Based on model quantitative precipitation forecast it would not be surprising if a warning is
necessary across the southern part of the forecast area...with and
advisory across the north. Stay tuned for the latest details on
this system. As the system departs the snow should come to an end
by Wednesday morning...with the possible exception of some lake
effect in north central Wisconsin. Winds behind the system will
bring colder air back to the area and could produce some blowing
and drifting of the new snow.
&&

Aviation...for 12z taf issuance
issued at 527 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015

Mostly clear skies will continue through early evening...but
increasing clouds (bases 5k-7k feet agl) will arrive late evening...
followed by low VFR or MVFR ceilings and scattered flurries late
tonight. S-SW winds around 5-10 kts will occur through the
period.
&&

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term.....Kieckbusch
long term......mg
aviation.......kieckbusch

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