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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
701 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Updated aviation portion for 12z taf issuance

Short term...today...tonight...and Tuesday
issued at 352 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Surface high moves from Iowa to Indiana and Ohio
will produce dry and mild weather through Tuesday. Some patchy fog
possible late tonight.

Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday
issued at 352 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

Very quiet weather to dominate the region during the period. Only
minor concerns will be whether to include very low chance probability of precipitation
and degree of cloud cover mid-week...fog potential...and how warm
temperatures will be able to climb.

Models remain in agreement with overall pattern through the
period. Middle-upper level pattern will consist of a trough pulling
out of the eastern u... ridging spreads/builds across the
eastern 2/3 of the Continental U.S. And southern Canada...and a deep trough
digs over the eastern Pacific. Main feature Worth watching for our
area will be a shortwave trough approaching the western Great
Lakes by Wednesday. Models have been surprisingly consistent with
this feature the past several runs...but have waffled a little on
how far east its effect will reach. Latest models continue to
hold the best low level moisture...and any associated light
precipitation...just west of the forecast area...so will continue with
dry forecast. Middle to upper level moisture does make a little more
progress across the state...so will increase cloud cover slightly
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

At the surface...a sprawling area of high pressure will work from
the Great Lakes region mid-week...toward the eastern Seaboard and
Atlantic late in the week. Its influence will aid in keeping the
dry forecast through the period. The high will also bring light
winds and clear skies...which will likely lead to some patchy fog
development. Winds just off the deck look to be the lightest
Tuesday night...so added patchy fog to most locations.

Temperatures look to be above normal all week and into the
weekend...with highs mainly in the upper 60s to middle 70s...with
the only exception being near Lake Michigan...where persistent
south winds will keep temperatures a little cooler. 850mb temperatures look
remarkably steady between 11c-14c through the period. Mixing up to
850mb would get highs around 80 degrees...however model soundings
show mixing potential only to around 900-875mb. Low temperatures will
range mainly from the upper 40s to lower 50s...with a few
locations across the north a little cooler...and locations near
Lake Michigan a little warmer.
&&

Aviation...for 12z taf issuance
issued at 701 am CDT Monday Sep 22 2014

A few clouds between 3000 feet and 4000 feet possible
today. Otherwise mainly clear skies and light surface winds. Some
patchy ground fog possible late tonight otherwise clear.
&&

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...
frost advisory until 8 am CDT this morning for wiz005-010>013-
018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

Short term.....Rdm
long term......bersch
aviation.......rdm

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