Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1048 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Updated aviation portion for 06z taf issuance

Synopsis...
issued at 313 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Little change to the weather pattern for the rest of the week.
Scattered showers...mainly during the afternoons and evenings...
with seasonable temperatures.

The upper pattern in vicinity of noam is highly amplified...with upper troughs
over the east and off the British Columbia coast...and strong
ridging from the intermountain west...nnewd...acrs the Canadian
prairies. This is a very stable pattern...and little change to the
trough and ridge posns is expected during the forecast period. But a
slow modification of the cold air in the eastern noam upper trough will
cause the flow across the eastern Continental U.S. To gradually weaken.

Temperatures will start out below normal but should moderate a
little and be close to normal for the rest of the period. There
will be ample opportunities for precipitation as disturbances
ride southeastward across the area. But with limited moisture...precipitation amnts will
be modest and most areas will probably end up below normal for the
week.
&&

Short term...tonight and Wednesday
issued at 313 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Precipitation trends and fog potential are the main concerns
during this part of the forecast.

An upper level short wave moving toward the forecast area in cyclonic
flow will keep showers and scattered thunderstorms going throughout
the afternoon and into the early evening hours.

The short wave and a cold front should pass through the area
overnight. Winds and clouds are expected to decrease during the
night and provide favorable conditions for fog development during
the night...especially in locations that receive heavier rainfall.
There was some fog in north central Wisconsin this morning and MOS
guidance had it in grb and rhi.

An upper level short wave passing to the northeast will bring
another chance for showers and thunderstorms...on
Wednesday...mainly during the afternoon.

Long term...Wednesday night through Tuesday
issued at 313 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

The relatively quiet middle-Summer weather will continue. The main
forecast challenge will continue to be when to have the highest probability of precipitation in
the forecast. Timing of shortwaves becomes more difficult farther into
the forecast...so relied mainly on typical diurnal trends by later in
the week.

850 mb temperatures may briefly edge up a few degrees during the
weekend...though it looks like the cooler air will be reinforced from
the north again later next weak. No sig changes to the broad-based blend
of guidance products used to initialize the extended part of the
forecast.
&&

Aviation...for 06z taf issuance
issued at 1045 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Given earlier shower and thunderstorm activity and clearing skies...the
issue overnight will be fog development as winds go light. At this
time have hit typical foggy sites harder...with MVFR visibilities at
remainder of taf sites. More shower activity possible Wednesday afternoon as
another upper disturbance passes through.

&&

Grb watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Synopsis.......skowronski
short term.....Mg
long term......skowronski
aviation.......te

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations