Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
533 am MDT sun may 19 2013
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 235 am MDT sun may 19 2013
04z water vapor imagery indicated short wave trough over eastern
Colorado and New Mexico with another short wave trough/pv anomaly
located upstream near Washington. At the surface...low was located near
Tribune with cold front advancing across northwestern County Warning Area.
Thunderstorms had redeveloped behind the cold front at this time
and were lifting to the north.
Main forecast concerns will center around precipitation chances
through the start of the week.
Today-tonight...already seeing thunderstorms develop to the north of
cold front and with large scale forcing for ascent staying some what
constant in addition to lingering frontogenesis think potential for
storms will continue through the early morning hours as static
stability above the surface will remain low. Divergence q fields indicate upper
level support moves north today...but point soundings indicate low
convective temperatures with little cinh so expect scattered showers/storms
to redevelop today even with modest surface heating. With instability
limited and lack of strong near surface forcing mechanism not sure I
want to go more than scattered coverage at this point. Think
precipitation will be strongly driven by daytime heating and think
coverage will diminish rapidly tonight. With low convective temperatures
and cloud cover with upper level trough in the area...am hesitant to
go too warm for temperatures today with some guidance suggesting skies will
cloud up in several areas once temperatures reach the middle 60s. Was leaning
towards lowering temperatures towards these values but with temperatures currently
around 60 am hesitant to go with such a small diurnal curve at this time.
Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 235 am MDT sun may 19 2013
Monday-Tuesday night...large 500 mb trough will remain over the Central
Plains through Tuesday before short wave ridge builds into the area
Tuesday evening. Prior to the shortwave ridging weak surface based
instability and periods of large scale ascent will keep the chance
for showers and thunderstorms going around the County Warning Area through the
period...with ensemble data and operational models pointing to
northern County Warning Area having best chance for precipitation through this
period. While there is some upper level support still not much in
the way of near surface forcing to increase confidence in storm
organization coverage so have left probability of precipitation in the scattered range for
now. With low convective temperatures...gusty northerly winds and cloud
cover have opted to keep temperatures on the cool side of things for
the time being.
&&
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 527 am MDT sun may 19 2013
Cluster of thunderstorms including small Bow echo will likely
impact the mck terminal prior to 14z. It is uncertain if storm
will be able to maintain its strength as MUCAPES suggest
instability diminishes to the northeast...but think the threat of
strong wind gusts to 40 kts is high for the next few hours.
Otherwise...expect scattered thunderstorms to develop during the
late morning hours and continue through the early evening. These
could bring a period of reduced flight categories...but coverage
is expected to be somewhat limited/transient.
&&
Gld watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
Colorado...none.
NE...none.
&&
$$
Short term...jrm
long term...jrm/mck
aviation...jrm
