Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1039 am MST Monday Jan 26 2015
issued at 848 am MST Monday Jan 26 2015
Morning soundings indicate strong inversion in place around the
area with dnr sounding indicating 13.2c at 800 mb which was similar to
inversion strength at ddc and lbf. One noticeable difference in
upper level profiles was with respect to moisture profile. Both
lbf and dnr suggest that deep mixing would not lead to a
noticable drop in dewpoints as mixing ratios do not change a lot
in lowest 2 km of atmosphere. Further south however...pocket of
drier air around 850 mb may allow for a dramatic drop in afternoon
dew points. So far...GOES precipitable water product not really showing much of a
difference in total moisture content across the County Warning Area and given the
expected surface flow am putting more weight towards lbf/bou type
environment for the afternoon. With temperatures in the upper 60s/middle to
upper 20 dewpoints and gusty winds fire weather will remain a concern
but do not anticipate a widespread critical fire weather day.
Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 211 am MST Monday Jan 26 2015
Shortwave ridge will move across the area today and Tuesday
bringing dry conditions and much above normal temperatures.
Expecting afternoon highs in the 70s both days. Shortwave trough
will move out of northern Colorado Tuesday night and Wednesday
brining slightly cooler temperatures and windy conditions. Even
behind the associated surface cold front temperatures will be in
the 60s Wednesday afternoon. Lower levels remain Bone dry and no
precipitation is expected.
Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 1230 am MST Monday Jan 26 2015
Thursday...cloudiness increases Thursday night with shortwave
ridging over the area. Afternoon temperatures in the middle 40s to
around 50 with lows in the middle to upper 20s.
Friday...lots of cloudiness during the day before decreasing
from northwest to southeast as drier air moves in from the
northwest as upper trough axis moves through. May see some light
snow south of the Interstate Friday morning before warming temperatures
change anything over to light rain. For the overnight hours rain
possible in the evening south of the Interstate then snow as
temperatures fall toward freezing. Highs in the middle 40s with lows
in the middle to upper 20s.
Saturday...decreasing cloudiness with forecast area in between
upper low north of the Great Lakes and another off the
California/Mexico coast. Little agreement between the European model (ecmwf)/GFS
regarding clouds and temperatures so no changes made to extended
forecast procedure. Highs currently expected to be in the low 40s
with lows in the low 20s.
Sunday...little agreement between long range models which make for
low confidence forecast. European model (ecmwf) showing 850mb temperatures of -5c
to -12c while the GFS showing +11c to +13c. No changes made to
current forecast and will go with upper 40s to low 50s for highs
and around 30 for lows.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1032 am MST Monday Jan 26 2015
VFR conditions will prevail for next 24 hours with few high clouds
and gusty northwesterly winds decreasing and becoming westerly
overnight. Am a little concerned about potential low level wind shear around mck
as winds increase to the 20-25kts range at base of inversion which
will be around 100 feet of the surface. If winds decouple...could
see a period where low level wind shear thresholds being met. Confidence not high
at this point though to include in this issuance.