Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
526 PM MST sun Nov 29 2015
issued at 524 PM MST sun Nov 29 2015
Update issued to tweak forecast based on latest couple hours of
observations...but overall no major changes. Regional radar is
showing increasing areal coverage of precipitation over
central/south central Colorado at this time...and is slowly
working towards eastern Colorado. Going forecast has this covered.
Will adjust timing in next estf update if needed.
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 123 PM MST sun Nov 29 2015
Southwest flow will continue tonight ahead of an upper low that will
move into southwest Nebraska Monday. Surface high pressure will
continue over the Central Plains tonight followed by a trough over
northwest Kansas Monday.
The NAM, GFS and European model (ecmwf) are showing the vorticity currently over western
Utah swinging around the base of the trough and into western Kansas
tonight. The NAM has the lowest quantitative precipitation forecast associated with this vorticity while
the GFS has the highest. The European model (ecmwf) is between the two and seems
most reasonable based on the speed of the system has it moves
through. As a result the three remaining counties in Kansas will
need to be placed in the current Winter Weather Advisory. (See
highlight below). Overall, total snowfall amounts are somewhat
lower than the previous forecast but still within advisory criteria.
Expect around 2 inches in eastern Colorado with around 3 inches in
There will only be a chance of snow early this evening with some
light freezing drizzle possible due to the lack of supportive
midlevel moisture. Moisture improves by middle evening in the western
forecast area with snow becoming likely and then spreading east into the rest
of the forecast area during the middle to late evening. The best chances for snow
should occur from around 06z to 12z with snow tapering off from west
to east Monday morning into early afternoon in the far northeast forecast area.
Winds will be relatively light during the snowfall but then increase
with possible gusts to 30 miles per hour as the system exits in the afternoon.
Do not expect any complications from the wind Monday afternoon since
the snow will have ended across most of the area.
Min temperatures tonight should be in the upper teens to around 20.
Maximum temperatures should rise to the lower 30s Monday.
Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 1257 PM MST sun Nov 29 2015
Monday night-Friday...large scale riding will settle into the
central rockies and plains and dominate the pattern over our County Warning Area
through these periods. A quick moving shortwave trough will round
the northern extent of this ridge and pass through the northern
plains. With a very deep/dry air mass in place there will be little
impact on our sensible weather from this feature. Expect dry
conditions and a moderation of the air mass over our County Warning Area through
these periods. While highs will trend above normal (low 50s
Thu/fri)...lingering widespread snow pack at least over the
central/eastern part of our County Warning Area may dampen this recovery.
Saturday-Sunday...there is considerable uncertainty in these periods
with large spread between extended guidance in the evolution of a
trough as it progresses across the central rockies/plains. GFS
continues to show an open wave across our County Warning Area and favors dry
conditions. 12z run of the European model (ecmwf) shows a closed low center over
western Kansas and supports potential for a developing winter storm
Saturday night-Sunday. Previous European model (ecmwf) was dry and much further south
with closed low. There is at least some gefs ensemble members in
support of all solutions...so its hard to give a lot of weight to
either end of the spectrum. Consensus has trended back towards a dry
forecast for now...however this pattern will need to be watched
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 431 PM MST sun Nov 29 2015
For kgld...MVFR ceilings through 04z Monday...then IFR and lower
expected with ceilings ovc002-008 and visibility 3sm down to 1/2sm
at times in light/moderate snow. Some freezing drizzle possible
04z-06z. After 20z VFR sky condition. Winds variable through 04z then
east-southeast 5-10kts through 16z Monday...then northwest 10-15kts with gusts near
25kts after 20z Monday.
For kmck...through 07z Monday expect MVFR skies ovc010-025 with light
-fzdz/-sn down to 5sm at times. After 07z Monday...ceilings
ovc002-008 with visibility 1/2sm to 3sm in light to moderate
snowfall. By 22z Monday...VFR with skies bkn035. Winds variable
through 05z Monday then east-northeast 5-10kts. By 17z northwest 10-15kts.
Kansas...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am MST /noon CST/ Monday for
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am MST /noon CST/ Monday for