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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
545 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 213 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014


Lee-side trough to our west...combined with high pressure to our
east is giving a nice warm afternoon across the entire forecast
area. This combination is providing the forecast area with strong
south-southeast flow...lifting temperatures into the m70s up to the l80s with
mostly sunny/sunny skies. Going into tonight and the overnight
period...County Warning Area will see continuing of synoptic setup initially.
Expecting area to see fairly decent night with gradient remaining
initially but slackening some by midnight. By midnight...models do
bring trough slowly off the Front Range and into the plains region
by 12z Wednesday. Increasing cloud cover will accompany the leading
edge of approaching trough with some light -rw over eastern Colorado
by 12z Wednesday. Quantitative precipitation forecast only a few hundredths. By 08z Wednesday...northern and
central Kansas zones will see chance for light patchy fog developing
before clouds overrun area. Based on latest dewpoints from observation and
model guidance...looking for overnight lows to range from the u40s
west to the m50s east. These numbers will depend on extent/push of
cloud cover pushing into area tonight.


Early morning fog will give way to Lee-side trough and associated
surface front traversing the County Warning Area from west to east middle morning hours into
the early evening. This system combo will be slowed by blocking
ridge over the Mississippi. Weak/moderate instability will kick off
some isolated thunder west/ -rw. Best chances for -trw activity will
occur over central/northern zones...due to morning timing over
western County Warning Area. Light/moderate -rw could bring a range of 0.02-0.20"
quantitative precipitation forecast potential. Early highs expected for western zones...due to wind
shift with surface frontal passage... so bring these locales middle to upper 60s
and low 70s elsewhere.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 213 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Wednesday evening there may be some lingering storms mainly east of
Highway 83 as the upper level trough departs the tri-state area.
Thought about adding a mention of fog over the east where the most
rain will have fallen...but models indicate the reduced visibilities
will be east of the area. So will leave a mention of fog out of the
forecast at this time.

Thursday through Sunday will remain dry as the upper level ridge
builds back over the area. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal under the ridge.

The next round of rainfall will be Sunday night and Monday as an
upper level trough moves across the northern part of the area. At
this time models disagree how fast the trough will move through and
how far south the trough will be as it moves across the area. The
further south the trough will be the better the rainfall chances
will be for the area. A cold front will accompany the trough
through the area Monday. Behind the front highs will be near


Aviation...(for tafs 00z Wednesday through 00z thursday)
issued at 545 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

VFR conditions both taf sites through 08z Wednesday with scattered middle
clouds developing overnight from the west. After 08z...MVFR fog through
12z-15z with visibility down to 3sm at times. After 12-15z...vcsh and
increasing clouds fl050/fl100 through about 21z with scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms moving east of the area. Southerly
winds 10-20kts decreasing to 10-12kts early this evening. Winds
becoming southwest Wednesday morning then northwest 18-21z as weak
cold front passes.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...jn
long term...jtl

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