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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
229 PM MDT sun Mar 29 2015

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 225 PM MDT sun Mar 29 2015

Short term focus is on temperatures on Monday.

The ridge of high pressure aloft re-amplifies over the Rocky
Mountain and intermountain regions tonight and Monday. Northwest
flow with weak embedded waves will remain in place over the Central
High plains region. Northerly surface winds will continue to
decrease through the remainder of the late afternoon today and this
evening as high pressure spreads across the Central Plains. With
weak embedded waves aloft moving east of The Rockies...another
surface Lee trough is expected to deepen along the eastern Colorado
border area as the high pressure area continues to move further east
overnight and through Monday morning. This will turn the light
northerly winds to the east...southeast...and then southwest by
Monday morning. Then as the surface trough deepens and moves east
across the forecast area by Monday afternoon...winds will increase
and turn west by early afternoon before weakening and turning back
to the north again by early Monday evening.

No precipitation is expected during this time period.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 225 PM MDT sun Mar 29 2015

Dry with warming temperatures will start off the period as the upper
level ridge over the Great Basin moves onto the plains Monday night
into Wednesday.

Wednesday a strong cold front will accompany an upper level short
wave trough through the area during the afternoon. Ahead of the
front higher dew points will pool. With some lift ahead of the
front...there could be some thunderstorms over the far east during
the afternoon. Am not too confident due to the majority of the
upper level forcing/moisture being over the northern plains as the
trough and front move through. There is a small amount of increase
in the 1000-500mb moisture before the trough axis moves through the
area Wednesday there could be a very small chance for
rainfall. However the best chance for rainfall will be well north
of the area.

A second cold front will move through the area Thursday ahead of
a stronger upper level short wave trough that night or Friday
morning. Normal to slightly below normal temperatures can be
expected behind the front. Models still do not agree when the
trough will move through...varying from Thursday evening through
Friday morning. Current consensus has the best chance for precipitation.
Thursday night...with the highest chances over the northern half
of the area where isentropic lift is strong and condensation
pressure deficits are lowest. Due to the cooler air continuing to
filter into the area during the night...there will be a chance for
snow or even a rain/snow mix for most of the area after midnight.
Anticipate snowfall amounts to be less than an inch by sunrise.

Friday precipitation. Chances begin to wind down as the trough moves east
of the area. Best chances will continue to be over the northern
half of the area for the same reason. Light snow will continue for
portions of the area during the morning with another half inch or so
of accumulation. Temperatures will be below normal...the coldest
during this seven day period.

Next weekend will be dry as another upper level ridge moves east of
the Great Basin and onto the plains. Temperatures will gradually
warm as a result.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1144 am MDT sun Mar 29 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the taf period at gld and
mck. Gusty northwest winds between 25-40kts will decrease through
the remainder of the afternoon and diminish after sunset. Winds
will turn to the south-southwest between 06-06z tonight as an
area of high pressure at the surface moves into the plains states
and the Central High plains region comes under return flow around
the during the early morning hours. By 18z...a deepening surface
trough along the eastern Colorado border will turn winds westerly
with increasing speeds expected Monday afternoon.


Fire weather...
issued at 225 PM MDT sun Mar 29 2015

Monday the fire danger will remain elevated across areas where
wind speeds are greater than 15 miles per hour and daytime high temperatures
are expected to approach 80 degrees ahead of the surface through.

Relative humidities will fall to less than 20 percent for the
entire area Tuesday afternoon...with the lowest values west of the
Colorado border. However winds will be light which will help
reduce but not eliminate the threat for rapid fire growth.

Wednesday afternoon relative humidities will fall to 20 percent
or less. Winds will be a bit stronger than Tuesday and more
erratic as the cold front moves through the area...with winds
increasing behind the front. With drier air behind the
front...anticipate relative humidities to fall as the front moves


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Lockhart
long term...jtl
fire weather...Lockhart/jtl

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