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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1129 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 230 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Today-tonight...upper high pressure center and associated ridge
currently over Arizona forecast to slowly strengthen while sliding
east/southeast into central Texas by 12z Saturday. 850mb
temperatures warm nearly 10f from thursdays values supporting
afternoon highs in the low to middle 80s. Record/near record highs are
expected...see climate section below. Lows in the 40s.

Saturday-Saturday night...upper high slides south/southeast into far
south Texas by 12z Sunday as upper flow shifts to the southwest
ahead of an approaching upper trough. Guidance has backed off on
any noticeable cooling from yesterdays 00z model runs and in fact
has 850mb temperatures a degree or two warmer compared to todays
(fridays) values. This despite an unfavorable easterly component to
the wind during the afternoon. Will shoot for highs again in the
low to middle 80s...exception being Flagler area where middle 70s expected.
Record highs again possible. Lows in the middle 40s to low 50s.

Sunday-Sunday night...upper trough axis slowly reaches the northern
plains to the Colorado western slope by 12z Monday with fast
southwest flow aloft. Not much in the way of cloudiness during the
day with only some middle and high clouds coming into areas generally
along/north of the Kansas/NE border. Precipitation chances albeit low
look to remain well north/northwest of the area and limited to after
midnight. High temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 in far
eastern Colorado with low 80s rest of the area. Lows in the 40s
except near 50 at Hill City.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 116 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Initial and only concern is the low chance of precipitation Monday
and Monday evening. Models have come into better agreement on the
speed and amplitude of the system to move through the region.
European model (ecmwf) has definitely backed off its much deeper/stronger system.
There will be some decent middle and upper level lift as it moves
through. However...there will not be much moisture associated with
the system. So the 20 to 30 percent probability of precipitation given to ME by the
crh_init are reasonable and made no changes to them.

Models differences increase from Tuesday into Thursday...especially
with where they put the developing ridge. No matter which model
you use...dry westerly flow or ridging will keep the region dry
through the rest of the period. Models still showing cold enough
temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night that frost will likely
form. So kept the patchy frost that inherited. Also made no
changes to the temperatures during this period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1128 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Benign weather pattern this weekend will mean VFR conditions at
mck and gld. Light and variable winds through the taf period at
less than 10 kts. A scattered high-level cloud deck /approx 25kft
above ground level or higher/ will move across the region this afternoon...with skies
becoming clear tonight.

&&

Climate...
issued at 230 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Record/near record high temperature possible today at:

Burlington...84 in 1952

Record/near record high temperature possible Saturday at:

Burlington...84 in 1963

&&

Gld watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
Colorado...none.
NE...none.
&&

$$

Short term...99
long term...Buller
aviation...jjm
climate...99

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