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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
927 PM MDT Sat may 23 2015

issued at 927 PM MDT Sat may 23 2015

Update issued to cancel Flood Watch for affected areas...and to
decrease areal coverage of remaining rain shower/thunderstorm activity over the
area. Bulk of heavy rainfall from earlier this evening has either
lifted north of the area or dissipated...leaving scattered/isolated chances
for rest of the night based on latest radar trends. Overall precipitation
should dissipate further after have left in mention
of drizzle and fog through tomorrow morning.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 211 PM MDT Sat may 23 2015

Thunderstorms already indicated by radar over eastern Colorado
should increase in coverage this evening as the next shortwave
ejects out of the upper low and across the forecast area. Plan to go with
definite probability of precipitation across the northwest with likely and chance probability of precipitation.
There is enough cape and shear to produce severe storms this
afternoon and evening. Storms should decrease around 06z Sunday
as the shortwave lifts northeast of the area. Abundant low level
moisture and dry middle levels will be favorable for areas of fog and
drizzle overnight and into Sunday morning. The sky should become
partly sunny by midday on Monday. Another shortwave will move
across the forecast area Monday afternoon. Plan to go with chance probability of precipitation for
Sunday afternoon. Shear will be lower so the severe weather threat
is lower as well.

The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for this evening due
to additional storms moving into the watch area.

Tornado Watch 195 remains in effect for eastern Colorado zones until

Min temperatures tonight will cool to the lower to middle 50s
tonight. Maximum temperatures Monday should warm to the lower and middle

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 206 PM MDT Sat may 23 2015

Sunday night...while main upper low center will be in the process
of transitioning north and east of the County Warning Area...a secondary
shortwave will be moving into the region from the west as large
scale upper trough remains in place across central rockies/plains.
Falling heights will peak in the evening with increase in
isentropic ascent and Omega primarily in the northwest half of the County Warning Area
during the evening. Forcing and moisture advection remain in
place through most of the night across the County Warning Area. Initially there is
a window in the evening where NAM shows good instability/sheer
axis across the central and eastern half of the area...however
this is highly dependent on clearing earlier in the day. Will
need to monitor for potential set up for severe weather similar to
today. large scale upper low breaks down a
progressive zonal pattern establishes itself across the region
with series of short wave troughs moving over the County Warning Area. Precipitable waters and
dewpoints remain above normal...though with progressive flow we
may not benefit from quite as much moisture advection from the
Gulf with these systems and models may be overdone with moisture
flux during some periods. While finer details are hard to pin
down...guidance shows enough consistency in overlapping precipitation
signals most periods to keep higher probability of precipitation in place. Very high
elevated instability is advertised Monday afternoon/evening and
again Tuesday afternoon/evening. A question would be strength of
cap in place and timing of initiation. Sheer is also not as robust
as the last few days...however severe threat will still be there
considering the steep middle level lapse rates and instability
advertised. GFS/European model (ecmwf) both show less instability in place
Wednesday through Saturday...but there is enough to keep
thunderstorm mention in place (though showers may be favored with
some of these shortwaves).

Regarding temperatures...while continuing to be highly dependent
on sky cover (as is usually the case) there should be a general
warming trend with near normal to above normal highs in the
70s/lower 80s Monday through Thursday...with model consensus
favoring blow normal temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s by


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 524 PM MDT Sat may 23 2015

VFR conditions at 00z Sunday will give way to a MVFR/IFR/LIFR mix
as showers...thunderstorms and fog develop and move through the
region. This will persist into Sunday afternoon before lifting to
MVFR/VFR. Ceilings will range from ovc025 down to ovc003-007 with
visibility ranging from 2-5sm. After rainfall ends by
05z...expecting drizzle and fog to be main weather conditions.
Winds (sse for kgld/east-southeast for kmck) 5-15kts with gusts 20-25kts
through 04z Sunday.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...fs
long term...Dr

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