Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
547 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 116 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Northwest flow will be over the Central Plains tonight and Wednesday
with a ridge over The Rockies. Surface high pressure will continue
to build south into the plains tonight and Wednesday.
Subsidence and lack of moisture support none probability of precipitation for tonight and
Wednesday as the upper low shifts further east into the Mississippi
River valley. Winds will gradually become light overnight as the
atmosphere decouples. Winds will remain light on Wednesday as the
upper low moves further away and the surface gradient relaxes.
Min temperatures tonight will cool to the 40s. Maximum temperatures
Wednesday will rise into the Lower/Middle 70s with a few upper 70s in
the southern forecast area.
Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 110 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Wednesday night through Friday...still have a bit of concern for
some isolated showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night as a weather
disturbance to the west of the area during the day slides east
across the forecast area overnight. Nose of low level jet
strengthens over the area which may provide enough support and
negate the lack of moisture below 700mb. For now will maintain
silent probability of precipitation. On Thursday low level moisture increases across the
area producing a rather cloudy day. No moisture above 700mb and no
instability to speak of. Middle level lapse rates may be enough to
produce a few stable showers or maybe some drizzle. Have increased
probability of precipitation a bit for some rain showers. For Thursday night precipitation
chances increase quite rapidly after midnight as a weather
disturbance moves in from the southwest. Current probability of precipitation look good with
highest chances generally east of the Colorado/Kansas border. As this system
exits the area during the morning Friday we should see a lull until
late afternoon when a few thunderstorms are possible across the west
or southwest portion of the area as moisture moves in from the
southwest.
Highs Thursday generally in the 60s with perhaps a few 70s across
the far east/northeast. Warmer Friday with middle to upper 70s
east...low to middle 80s west. Lows in the 40s Wednesday night...50s
Thursday night.
Friday night-Tuesday...forecast area to remain in southwest flow
aloft as low pressure remains across the west/northwest and high
pressure holds across parts of Texas. Will continue with daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms as monsoonal type pattern sets
up. Highs through the period in the 80s with lows in the 50s and
60s.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 529 PM MDT Tuesday may 21 2013
High pressure moving into the area will cause winds to decrease
early this evening and remain light overnight into Wednesday.
Winds will shift to the east-southeast at kgld on Wednesday as the high
pressure moves east while winds will remain out of the north in kmck on
Wednesday. Partly cloudy skies will remain over kgld while mostly
cloudy skies over kmck will become partly cloudy on Wednesday.
&&
Gld watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
Colorado...none.
NE...none.
&&
$$
Short term...fs
long term...99
aviation...Lockhart/alw
