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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
453 PM MST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 205 PM MST Thursday Nov 27 2014

As of 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...skies across the tri-state region are
being invaded by cirrus streaming off The Rockies. Temperatures were
cooler over the eastern half of the forecast area...generally in the
middle to upper 50s. Across the western half...temperatures have
reached the low to middle 60s with a few locations climbing into the
upper 60s. Winds were from the southwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour with some
gusts up to 30 miles per hour ahead of advancing cirrus. Northwest flow aloft
continues between a persistent eastern U.S. Longwave trough and a
ridge of high pressure located over the southwest. A Lee trough was
located over central Colorado.

Main forecast concern through tomorrow is the possibility of near
critical fire weather conditions and near record high temperatures. For
fire weather...please see the fire weather discussion below. For
possible record breaking temperatures...please see the climate

For tonight through tomorrow...dry weather is expected as a very dry
airmass continues to advect in from the west. High cirrus currently
streaming in now should persist through this evening and taper off
by early tomorrow morning. A Lee trough progresses through tomorrow
with southwest winds becoming west behind the passage. Very warm
temperatures are forecast by many pieces of guidance and saw no
reason to deviate from guidance. 850 mb temperatures reach 18-19
degrees celsius tomorrow...leading to maximum surface temperatures
tomorrow in the low to middle 70s region-wide.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 230 PM MST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Friday night-Saturday...upper flow slowly backs to zonal ahead of a
storm system that moves into the Pacific northwest. Little if any
cloudiness through the period...maybe a few cirrus and thats about
it. Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s with highs a few degrees other
side of 70.

Saturday night-Sunday...Pacific coast trough moves into the northern
plains extending southwest into Wyoming and Idaho during the day
then east into the northern plains. Will be watching a batch of
stratus/fog that per GFS/NAM boundary layer relative humidity backs into the
northeast 1/2 or so of the area along the leading edge of a strong
cold front by 12z Sunday. For the rest of the day leading edge of
stratus/fog associated with cold front continues to move southwest
across the rest of the area with northeast winds around 10
miles per hour...increasing closer to 15 maybe 20 miles per hour late in the day. Colder
air continues to move in behind the front. Lows in the low to middle
20s across far southwest Nebraska to the middle 30s across the Cheyenne
Wells and Tribune areas. These lows will most likely be realized
closer to 15z vs the typical time around sunrise given the expected
movement of the cold front.

Regarding highs on Sunday...GFS/NAM 850mb temperatures in remarkable
agreement and suggest a 32f-45f drop compared to saturdays
values...supporting low 30s to around 40. Could see middle/upper 40s
across the extreme southwest corner of the area such as Kit Carson
Colorado. The 12z European model (ecmwf) a bit slower with the front by 6 hours or so
from 12z-18z but by 00z catches up with the NAM/GFS solutions. Per
excellent coordination with surrounding offices have lowered highs
temperatures to the low to middle 30s...exception across the Flagler to Kit
Carson and Tribune areas where low to middle 40s advertised.

Sunday night-Monday of clouds move across the northern
half of the area Sunday night as upper trough moves across. For
Monday lots of sun with a generally clear sky Monday night. With
high pressure nosing into the area Sunday night winds will be
light...little in the way of clouds and dewpoints will be low. This
would support rather cold temperatures in the single digits above
zero to around 10. For Monday night southwest winds develop with
warm air aloft moving in late. Coldest temperatures in the low to middle teens
McCook to Hill City with upper teens to around 20 to the west.
European model (ecmwf)/GFS 850mb temperatures Monday support highs in the low 30s.

Tuesday-Thursday...major issues with pattern development and
subsequently surface and 850mb development lead to low confidence
forecast. No changes made from extended procedure. GFS showing weak
ridging Tuesday followed by southwest flow aloft Wednesday ahead of
upper trough that moves through Wednesday night. European model (ecmwf) showing upper
ridge building across the West Coast Tuesday migrating east and over
the area Thursday. Current forecast is for temperatures to be near
to slightly above normal with no precipitation.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 450 PM MST Thursday Nov 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period at mck and gld. The
Lee surface trough deepens and stretches across the Central High
plains tonight and through the day Friday. Winds will turn west
overnight and continue through Friday.


issued at 205 PM MST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Record temperatures possible tomorrow at...

Burlington....record: 75 in 1949...forecast: 76
Goodland......record: 72 in 1986...forecast: 75
Hill City.....Record: 72 in 1986...forecast: 71
McCook........record: 72 in 1933...forecast: 71


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...rrh
long term...99

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