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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
303 PM MST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 301 PM MST Thursday Jan 29 2015

As of 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...skies across the tri-state region are
sunny. Temperatures are in the middle 40s to low 50s. Winds are from
the north at 10 to 15 miles per hour with gusts as high as 30 miles per hour measured
earlier. Surface high pressure was centered over the High
Plains...drifting east. A large trough of low pressure is located
over the eastern Pacific...heading east and about to make landfall
on the Baja California peninsula.

For this afternoon through tomorrow morning...dry weather shall
continue with surface high pressure in place. Clouds gradually
return as moisture streams in and a lead shortwave ejects ahead of
the Pacific trough. Moisture in the boundary layer is limited so not
expecting precipitation until we near boundary layer saturation.
North winds weaken around sunset as the high passes over.
a Lee trough develops...south winds return and strengthen late
tomorrow morning...becoming breezy.

Tomorrow afternoon...the Pacific trough encroaches and we should
begin to see precipitation echoes on radar. The question for the
forecast is whether or not we will observe precipitation reaching
the ground Friday afternoon. Felt we should saturate the column over
Wichita and Greeley counties in Kansas. This would allow
precipitation to reach the ground so have the highest probability of precipitation to the
south. Further north and east...virga and sprinkles are possible
during the afternoon but heavier precipitation is not anticipated
until evening. With anticipated cloud cover and increasing
moisture/precipitation chances...forecast cooler high temperatures
south of Interstate 70.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 301 PM MST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Main weather system to impact the area during the long-term period
is the upper low currently west of Baja California. That system is forecast
to move east Friday and then move southeast Sat-sun as a wave in
the northern stream shunts it south. As a result the heaviest
precipitation with the upper low will remain south and east of the forecast
area. As it stands now...a weak lead short wave will move over the
region late Friday and Friday night bringing an increase in clouds
and chances for light rain or a light rain-snow mix overnight
with no accumulation. Best precipitation chances Friday night will be in
the southeast half of the County Warning Area. Area-wide chances for light
precipitation will arrive Saturday afternoon through about
midnight Saturday night as the northern stream wave approaches.

Temperatures will be mild Friday night...around 30 degrees...due
to a combination of southerly winds and thickening cloud cover.
Then cold air will begin filtering in Saturday afternoon into
Sunday with highs holding around 32 on Sunday as a large Canadian
airmass drops south through the plains.

Early next week will bring several brief attempts at moderating
temperatures before yet another Canadian airmass dominates again for the
middle to late part of the week. Right now precipitation chances look
minimal next week.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1039 am MST Thursday Jan 29 2015

VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours. North winds
weaken this afternoon...becoming light/variable this evening as a
surface high pressure passes over. South winds return as the high
moves east and a Lee trough develops along the Front Range.
Increasing cloud cover expected tomorrow morning as a disturbance
moves in. Any/all precipitation holds off until after 18z so did
not include any precipitation mention with this taf.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...rrh
long term...dlf

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