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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
531 am MDT Friday Sep 4 2015

issued at 505 am MDT Friday Sep 4 2015

Update issued to add in mention of isolated showers over northeast
portions of the forecast area. These showers are occurring along a
slow moving surface trough that remained over central County Warning Area for past
several hours. This trough is also causing a 10-15 degree
difference across the County Warning Area. Western zones in 60s with eastern zones
in the 70s with southerly flow. Sunrise is soon and will affect
The Jump on daytime highs as eastern zones have not had chance to
cool down. As a result have increased highs for the eastern County Warning Area
by a few degrees which is going to push some locales to 100f. Heat
indices at this time stay below advisory criteria.


Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 152 am MDT Friday Sep 4 2015

Across the forecast area this morning...scattered middle and high cloud
cover moving through the region as surface trough lifts northeast
through the plains region. This movement of this trough is bringing
in a slow temperature change for the tri state region. Temperatures in the
60s for the western half of the forecast...while eastern zones
continue to remain in the 70s and even some low 80s. The movement of
the trough over the next several hours will give eastern areas a bit
more of a break before sunrise.

Going into the rest of today on through the upcoming
conditions will persist during this timeframe before a frontal
boundary arrives Sunday night. Before this occurs though...500 mb ridge
to our east and a building cutoff low over the Pacific coast will
keep a southerly gradient over the region. Several shortwaves will
continue to move up and along the west side of the upper
ridge...aided by surface Lee-side bring the slight
chance for thunder. The focus will be over western zones based on
model track. Each subsequent trough looks to be similar to current
synoptic setup...that is slow to move out overnight giving the area
a large range in temperatures. If these troughs do not move fast enough
before sunrise...these areas in the east could already be several
degrees warmer than western zones...and will affect daytime highs.
This is why plan to highlight all eastern half warmer for highs than
western counterparts.

By late in the day Sunday...surface front finally cuts into the
northern portion of the forecast area...shifting southeast towards
12z Monday. Model guidance puts best chances for precipitation over central
and eastern zones as front begins to stall late in period over
central portions of Kansas.

850 mb temperatures over the next 3-day period will range from +28c to +31c
at maximum heating. This is going to give a range of highs of lower to
middle 90s for the western half of the County Warning Area...with middle to upper 90s for
the eastern half...with even a few spot 100f readings over far
eastern locales on Saturday. These locales that come close to 100f
will be near heat indices that may warrant a heat will
have to be monitored. As with the past few days trend for overnight
lows is to be in the 60s to even a spot 70f in the east...but over
trend will be coolest warmest in the east over for tonight
and Saturday night. The arrival of the cold front Sunday night will
drop areas into mainly the 50s with some spots low 60s in southeast
zones...where front is expected to stall out.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 224 am MDT Friday Sep 4 2015

Beginning of the week will see temperatures around normal due to
a cold front that is anticipated to pass on Sunday. The models
still show an upper level southwest flow over most of the central
U.S. And a shortwave trough digging into the northern rockies on
Monday and moving into the northern plains on Tuesday with an
associated surface cold front with it. As this system moves over
the tri state area it will produce a chance for showers and
thunderstorms... the instability/shear may be sufficient for a few
severe storms. It will also produce below normal temperatures over
the area on Wednesday as the highs area expected to reach the middle

After Wednesday the cr_init shows stable conditions with closer
to normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday... however, some
models Show Low level moisture return to the area by Thursday.
This could possible produce some slight chances for diurnally
driven afternoon and evening thunderstorms at weeks end.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 531 am MDT Friday Sep 4 2015

VFR conditions for both taf sites with few060 sct120-150 and vcsh
after 00z-02z Saturday. Directional wind shear for kgld through 16z
with ws020/35020kts...otherwise south-southeast 10-20kts for kmck...and kgld
west-northwest backing to SW by early afternoon...10-20kts.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...jn

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