Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
221 am MDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 131 am MDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
Shortwave trough moving across the northern plains will drive a
cold front into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the front
after 21z. Up to 2000 j/kg of instability and deep layer shear of
around 25kts will be in place east of Highway 83 where there is a
slight risk of a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large
hail and gusty winds. Instability drops off rapidly to the west
where there is a marginal threat for a high based storm capable
of producing locally gusty winds. Cooler air will move in behind
the front this evening and threat for severe weather will end by
06z...though scattered showers will continue through the
Second and stronger shortwave will quickly move out of the Great
Basin on Thursday and out of the central rockies Thursday night.
Rain and snow will develop along the Colorado Front Range during
the day and spread eastward Thursday afternoon. Rain will change
to snow west to east Thursday night. Generally went with the European model (ecmwf)
solution for amounts which shows 1 to 3 inches of wet snow
possible Thursday night and Friday morning...with up to 6 inches
possible in eastern Colorado. Confidence in 6 inch amounts less
than 50 percent at this time so did not issue a watch. Limiting
factors include warm ground temperatures due to recent high
temperatures in the 80s which will cause some initial melting and
lack of a closed upper system. Some blowing snow also possible
Thursday evening with wind gusts up to 40 miles per hour immediately behind
the surging cold front.
Subsidence quickly moves in after 12z Friday morning behind the
system with snow ending and additional amounts of less than an
inch. Should see some afternoon sun on Friday and temperatures
rebounding into the 50s and 60s.
Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 214 am MDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015
A weak ridge will build into the area this weekend. Expect sunny
skies and temperatures to gradually increase through Monday. A
trough will move in over the Pacific northwest on Tuesday. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be a bit cooler due to a cold front
passing through the area. There is a slight chance for showers
Tuesday night following the front.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1005 PM MDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015
Kgld...VFR conditions expected through the period. South winds
gusting to 25kts expected from taf issuance through 11z under
just a few high clouds. From 12z to 21z winds slowly veer to the
west then northwest 10-12kts ahead of a cold front which is
expected to move through the terminal around 22z with north winds
around 10kts increasing and gusting toward 25kts from 02z through
the rest of the taf period. Should have enough instability to
produce a few thunderstorms around and possibly over the terminal
from 22z-04z...have added thunderstorms in the vicinity as a result. Will need to watch
the 09z-13z timeframe for the possibility of MVFR or IFR ceilings/visible
in br/fog as saturated boundary layer moisture moves in from the
south. Currently models suggest as winds veer to the southwest
around 12z this would keep this airmass just east of the terminal.
Kmck...VFR conditions expected through the period. South winds
around 10kts expected from taf issuance through 12z. From 12z-
14z will be watching for possibility of MVFR/IFR ceilings/visible in br/fog
to possibly impact the terminal...otherwise just a few middle or high
clouds expected during this time. From 15z to 19z southwest winds
under 12kts veer slowly to the west with middle and high cloudiness.
From 20z through the rest of the taf period cold front moves
through with northwest winds around 10kts becoming north and
gusting toward 25kts. At present time thunderstorms are expected
to initiate along the front but just east of the terminal so for
now no precipitation or thunderstorm mention.
Kansas...red flag warning from 10 am MDT /11 am CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for ksz027-028-041-042.
Colorado...red flag warning from 10 am this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for coz254.