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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1052 am MST Monday Dec 22 2014

Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 301 am MST Monday Dec 22 2014

The short term focus will be on Tuesday as the chances of
precipitation moving in from the north increase tonight through
Tuesday along with the possibility of a high wind event developing
early Tuesday morning continuing into Tuesday afternoon. The
combination of those two elements could also lead to areas of
blowing snow and blowing dust through the day on Tuesday.

The cold front expected overnight has made it's way across the
forecast area early this morning. Northwest winds will be
increasing across the area through the day today in the wake of
the front as the surface pressure gradient increases.

As the next short wave trough swings through the back side of the
upper trough tonight and early Tuesday...expect areas of light
snow to move in from the north. Also expect wind speeds to be
increasing through the early morning hours on Tuesday as
precipitation will help 50+kt winds mix to the surface through the
morning as the surface pressure gradient is also increasing
through the day. As a result...expect areas of blowing snow to be
produced mainly across far eastern Colorado and far northwest
Kansas and possibly extreme southwest Nebraska...with areas of
blowing dust to also exist as sustained wind speeds increase over
30 miles per hour and gusts exceed 40 miles per hour. Wind speeds seen during the day on
Monday will likely be a good benchmark for the basis of wind
speeds expected during the day on Tuesday. Snowfall amounts of an
inch or less are expected in the area between Highway 34 across
southwest Nebraska and Interstate 70 across northwest Kansas with
snowfall amounts tapering off to only a few tenths south of
Interstate 70.

Expect winds to diminish rapidly Tuesday evening as the low
pressure area continues to move off into the Great Lakes region
and high pressure moves in at the surface and a ridge moves into
place over The Rockies and High Plains region. Dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures are expected through Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 238 am MST Monday Dec 22 2014

A shortwave ridge will begin to break down Thursday as an upper
level trough approaches the High Plains region from the west. The
European model (ecmwf) and the GFS have now seemingly swung the other way with
bringing a more amplified trough into the Continental U.S. Compared to a
shortwave trough as seen in previous runs. Sampling appears to be an
issue with this system due to the positioning of the trough over the until the upper trough gets closer to the West Coast
over the next few days...forecast positioning of the upper level
system and precipitation chances are most likely going to continue
to vary for Thursday. However...what seems to be consistent is that
the greatest potential for precipitation will be north of the
forecast area towards central Nebraska with general timing being
Thursday evening. However...there are still some chances for
precipitation mainly for locations north of Interstate 70 at this
point. Rain/snow mixes will start the day and become rain in the
afternoon before the cold front passes...which will change
precipitation to all snow Thursday night.

Placed a mention of slight chances for precipitation Friday morning
due to the slowing nature of the progression of the trough. Because
the current forecast position of the upper trough base will not pass
through the region until closer to 00z Saturday...thinking there is
at least some chance to see some light snow. Light snow
accumulations are expected with this system...up to about an inch at

A shortwave ridge will build slide across the forecast area Friday
night into Saturday...bringing dry weather and near normal
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday and Sunday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1047 am MST Monday Dec 22 2014

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the 18z tafs. Gusty winds will
continue through the period for kgld...with a brief break for
kmck...but will gradually increase through the night and Tuesday
for both sites. Overnight ceilings will lower with snowfall moving
in from the west during the morning. Have some uncertainty as to
how low the visibilities will fall with the strong winds and the
snow. Am confident there will be intermittent periods of visible.
Less than a mile for kgld but do not have the confidence to have
it as a prevailing group at this time. Visible. At kmck should not be
as low since the site will be on the east edge of the
snowfall...with visible. Dropping to IFR briefly.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...high wind watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for

Colorado...high wind watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for

NE...high wind watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for



Short term...Lockhart

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