Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
525 PM MDT Monday Apr 27 2015
Short term...(this afternoon through tuesday)
issued at 1255 PM MDT Monday Apr 27 2015
Latest WV imagery and rap analysis shows large scale closed upper
low centered over Texas Panhandle with middle level vorticity rotating
through OK/souther Kansas. At the surface high pressure is beginning to
build from the northern plains into the northern part of our
County Warning Area..along with falling dew points.
This afternoon-tonight...radar shows bulk of light to moderate
precipitation along Kansas/OK border transiting to the south and east...though
there are some light returns rotating northward towards the southern
part of our County Warning Area. Based on increasing dew point depression over the
County Warning Area...and axis of forcing/better moisture well south...any of these
light returns would likely be virga at most this afternoon.
Otherwise middle to high clouds should continue to clear with building
subsidence aloft. Good radiation conditions should allow for
locations in our County Warning Area to reach freezing (possibly lower)
tonight...though with an increase in dew point values advertised from the
northwest late we may not fall as much. Wet ground conditions could
also keep dew point values from dropping as much as advertised which seems
to already be the case this afternoon.
Tuesday...500 mb ridge continues to build east and temperatures aloft will
moderate a little...and better daytime mixing should allow highs in
the 60s/near 70 for much of the County Warning Area. There is still a secondary 300 mb
jet prognosticated to pass through the northern plains...and a light precipitation
signal with some guidance in our north. I still cant rule out an
isolated sprinkle in our northeast with steepening lapse rates as
middle level vorticity maximum passes to the north and cold pool develops...but
moisture profiles are not particularly impressive. In the end this
may just be virga and little else.
Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 147 PM MDT Monday Apr 27 2015
Going into the extended period...h5/h7 ridge builds over the entire
western portion of the country Tuesday night...with ridge axis
extending eastward into the Western Plains through midweek. Models
trend this ridge to flatten... and allow for zonal flow for the
latter portion of the week on into the beginning of next week.
Expecting dry conditions to ensue into Thursday...but with ridge
flattening allowing zonal flow...the area will see a several 700mb
shortwaves working over The Rockies and into the plains region. Each
subsequent system will bring the chance for rw/trw...with best
chances for convective activity at the end of the week. Surface Lee-
side troughs will work off the Front Range with each
system...providing enhancement for thunderstorm to form...especially for the
afternoon/early evening hours. Temperatures in the extended will range above
normal for both high/lows. 850 temperatures during the day will allow for
highs to range from the middle to upper 70s...on up to 80f in spots.
Overnight lows will range in the middle to upper 40s...with some l50s
possible Sunday night. Temperatures will/could be tempered some by the
extent of clouds from expected precipitation.
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 523 PM MDT Monday Apr 27 2015
VFR expected at both kgld and kmck through the taf period. Upper
low over the Southern Plains will continue to pull away with
ridge building across The Rockies in its wake.