Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1030 am MST Friday Mar 6 2015
Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 235 am MST Friday Mar 6 2015
Upper flow will be northwest through Sunday night. A weak surface
trough will be over eastern Colorado today followed by high pressure
tonight and Saturday. Another weak surface trough will move into
the area Saturday night. The trough will move through Sunday
followed by high pressure Sunday night.
Subsidence will dominate the forecast through Saturday. Some lift
is indicated Saturday night but sufficient moisture is lacking.
Consequently, no precipitation is expected so probability of precipitation will be none from
today through Sunday night.
Maximum temperatures will warm to the middle 50s with some lower 60s in the
eastern forecast area today. Similar temperatures will be found Saturday.
Slightly cooler readings are expected Sunday behind the windshift.
Min temperatures should range from 25 to 30 tonight and Saturday
night. Min temperatures Sunday night will vary from the middle 20s to
the upper 20s.
Long term...(monday through next thursday)
issued at 1154 PM MST Thursday Mar 5 2015
The long term period starts with a weak upper trough over the
Central Plains but it has little to no weather impacts. Tuesday
and Wednesday a ridge builds across the central rockies and
adjacent plains resulting in dry conditions and above normal
temperatures. The next shortwave trough comes out of the Great
Basin late in the week...but the overall flow remains rather weak
and low level moisture will be lacking for precipitation...so no
impacts expected with it at this point.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1029 am MST Friday Mar 6 2015
VFR conditions expected through the taf period with little change
in the dry and calm weather. An occasional gust can be expected at
kmck this afternoon and a light wind shift at kgld later in the
issued at 923 am MST Friday Mar 6 2015
A dry air mass is in place over the tri state area...which will
bring relative humidities below 20 percent for locations mainly
along and east of Highway 83. An occasional gust of wind above 25
miles per hour is possible with some lower to middle level jet winds present.
Conditions are expected to remain below critical fire weather
thresholds this afternoon...however...outdoor burning should be
avoided if possible.