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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1100 PM MDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 223 PM MDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

As of 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...skies across the tri-state area ranged
from mostly clear to overcast as a band of stratus has been slow to
break up today along the Kansas/Colorado border. Winds were light
and variable east of Highway 25. Winds were from the south at 10 to
20 miles per hour...gusting to 30 miles per hour west of Highway 25. Temperatures were in
the upper 40s to middle 50s. Winds have increased in speed due to a
tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and a
deepening Lee trough to the west. Aloft...a shortwave ridge of high
pressure was moving across The Rockies towards the High Plains.

For tonight and tomorrow...dry weather is anticipated with the ridge
translating across the High Plains. A weak shortwave will try to
move into northeast Colorado tomorrow afternoon in association with
the Lee trough. A few pieces of guidance indicate thunderstorm
development over the Front Range with storms moving east into
northeast Colorado. Based on forecast soundings and instability
profiles...the atmosphere does not look conducive for development due
to a lack of overall moisture.

Above normal temperatures can be expected during the short term.
South winds remain elevated tonight...sustained between 10-20
miles per hour...before strengthening further late tomorrow morning. Winds may
approach advisory criteria east of Highway 25 but winds aloft that
would be mixed down did not appear strong enough. Lows tonight are
forecast to only drop into the upper 30s with the winds continuing
and moisture advection underway. Some stratus may also develop and
help keep temperatures from falling. High temperatures tomorrow are
advertised to reach the middle 70s to near 80 in northeast Colorado.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 1252 PM MDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Southern stream shortwave trough will approach the area
Saturday afternoon. Cold front forecast to be near a Norton to
Tribune line will be the most likely area for convective
initiation. SBCAPE axis of up to 1500 j/kg will be in place along
and east of the front with afternoon temperatures well into the
80s. Deep layer shear of 20-30kts is forecast for that area. Those
parameters only marginally supportive of severe storms but still
could see some small hail possibly up to quarter size with
stronger updrafts. More showers/isolated thunderstorms will
develop in the Post frontal upslope environment Saturday night as
main synoptic scale forcing arrives. Models show scattered showers
and isolated thunder lingering into Sunday with colder air aloft
associated with the upper shortwave...but instability will be
very limited by that time so nothing severe. High temperatures on
Sunday will be around 70.

Upper ridge will rebuild for early next week. Warming surface
temperatures and upslope flow into Colorado will contribute to
isolated afternoon/early evening storms despite lack of upper
level forcing. Activity will be diurnal in nature...quickly
dissipating after sunset. Next shortwave trough will arrive on
Wednesday but models indicate most of the local area will get dry
slotted. However...dry line will be near the far eastern counties
and they stand the best chances of getting thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night. Upper trough axis will still be
nearby on Thursday so hard to rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm though instability axis will be far east by that
time. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be above to much
above normal then near normal on Thursday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1051 PM MDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

VFR conditions will persist at mck and gld through the taf period.
Surface high pressure moves off to the east tonight and a surface
Lee trough begins to deepen along the Front Range on Friday as the
ridge aloft moves from The Rockies to the High Plains. South to
southwest winds will increase after 12z Friday morning and will
become gusty by middle morning. Gusty winds will continue through the
day with gusts diminishing after sunset while sustained winds
remain around 15 kts after sunset. Mainly high clouds are expected
overnight and early Friday morning with clear skies across the
Central High plains region after 15z. There is a possibility of a
few lower clouds forming in the vicinity of mck between
11-13z...but currently feel they will not be widespread enough to
produce MVFR conditions if they do end up forming.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...rrh
long term...024