Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1030 PM MDT sun Oct 19 2014
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 104 PM MDT sun Oct 19 2014
A weak surface trough in place across the forecast area moves
east of the area overnight with high pressure moving across the
plains on Monday with another Lee trough already beginning to
develop southward along the Front Range by late Monday. Winds turn
from the northwest to the southeast as a result. The upper ridge
axis currently over The Rockies moves east over High Plains
tonight and will be in place over the plains states on Monday. The
associated subsidence and drying conditions aloft under the ridge
will keep the area warmer than average with lows mainly between
40-45 and highs between 70-75. Skies are expected to remain clear tonight
Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 228 PM MDT sun Oct 19 2014
The upper level ridge Monday night will transition east of the area
Tuesday as an upper level trough moves across the Great Basin.
Overnight Monday higher dew points will pool over the west half to
third of the area...which will lead to some fog development.
Anticipate visibilities to be lowest around sunrise...with the lower
visibilities gradually working east through the early morning.
Tuesday afternoon the low level jet will strengthen as the upper
level trough approaches the area...causing gusty winds to develop.
Tuesday night the upper level trough will move over central
Colorado. Lift will develop over east central Colorado as the
trough axis approaches. Mixing ratios will continue to increase
and Theta- east lapse rates in the 700-500mb layer will become more
unstable. With the environment becoming more favorable for
rainfall development will place a mention in the forecast for the
northwest part of the area overnight where the lift and mixing
ratios will be highest.
For wedneday through Sunday the period will be predominantly dry
except for Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper level trough
moves across the tri-state area. Theta-E lapse rates will continue
to become more convectively unstable through the day...so will keep
a mention of thunderstorms despite the minimal cape available.
During the afternoon the lift will strengthen over the east half of
the area ahead of the trough axis. With the best lift and
instability there have increased precipitation. Chances to 70%. During the
night rainfall chances will end from west to east as the trough axis
moves east of the area. Due to higher mixing ratios and the
strongest lift being over the east half of the area...anticipate the
highest rainfall amounts to be there.
After Wednesday the environment dries out as an upper level ridge
builds over the plains.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1030 PM MDT sun Oct 19 2014
For kgld and kmck...VFR through the period under a clear sky. Vrb
winds 5kts or less expected at both terminals from taf issuance
through 17z before becoming southeasterly at 8-10kts from 18z
through 04z. After 04z winds veer to the south at 6-10kts. A few
gusts to 16kts possible in the 18z-22z timeframe at kgld.