Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
559 PM MDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 133 PM MDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Rest of today...sunny skies as an upper level ridge moves east
across The Rockies and into the High Plains. Winds will be fairly
light the rest of today ahead...with winds generally out the
northwest in southwest Nebraska and out of the southeast in eastern
Colorado and adjacent Kansas counties. Highs near normal...in the
low to middle 70s.
Tonight...a backdoor weak front will move across the area from
northeast to southwest as high pressure builds in across the
northern plains. Winds out of the east will increase to 15 to 20 miles per hour
as a nocturnal low level jet develops. The low level jet combined with low
level moisture being advected into the region will cause some patchy
fog and low stratus clouds to develop. Do not anticipate widespread dense
fog conditions...but there could be a few low lying areas where
visibility drops below one mile. Lows near normal...in the middle 40s.
Tomorrow...fog and low clouds will lift by mid-day...though skies
will remain cloudy for most of the day. A few showers/sprinkles are
possible in the afternoon...but do not expect much measurable
precipitation. Winds will be breezy out the southeast at the
surface...with a few gusts to near 30 miles per hour. High temperatures are expected
to reach the upper 60s to near 70...but these temperatures could be higher
or lower depending on the amount of cloud cover in the morning and
throughout the day.
Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 222 PM MDT Wednesday may 22 2013
A ridge will be over the plains Thursday night and Friday. The ridge
will shift east Friday night with southwest flow over the plains
through Saturday.
A shortwave moves up the ridge and into the forecast area Thursday night.
Moisture is in question with this wave so will go with slight chance
probability of precipitation. Precipitation should be showers predominantly due to the lack
of instability. However cannot rule out some elevated thunder. There
is a slight chance lingering showers in the east Friday morning. Boundary
layer relative humidity increases to 90 percent or more across most of the forecast area late
Thursday night so have included patchy fog which should persist
until late morning across most areas. The next weak shortwave
moves up the ridge into the forecast area Friday afternoon. Probability of precipitation will be slight
chance over eastern Colorado and then chance over the rest of the
area through the evening. Cape will range from 2400 to 2800 j/kg
with 30 to 40kts of shear. Another shortwave moves into the forecast area
Saturday afternoon. Due to southwest flow the best chance for
thunderstorms will be across the northwest forecast area.
Min temperatures Thursday night will be in the lower 50s warming to
the upper 50s and lower 60s Friday and Saturday nights. Maximum
temperatures will warm from the upper 70s/lower 80s Friday to the
middle 80s Saturday.
In the extended...(saturday night through wednesday)...upper flow
will be southwest through Tuesday ahead of a trough that will move
east of The Rockies Wednesday. Numerous shortwaves coming through
the flow will initiate at least a slight chance or chance of
thunderstorms each day.
Min temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. 850
temperatures are near 30 c so expect maximum temperatures in the middle and
upper 80s.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 544 PM MDT Wednesday may 22 2013
As high pressure moves east overnight low level moisture will
advect into the area bringing low stratus and fog to mck around
09z and gld around 11z. VFR conditions will start out and then
become MVFR around 06z for mck and 09z for gld. Ceilings will
lower to IFR around 09z for mck and 11z for gld. Visibility should
not be affected much since soundings favor low stratus over
fog...although mck has a better chance of fog forming so
visibility was lowered slightly. Stratus should lift in the
morning around 14z but clouds will stay over both locations for
most of the day tomorrow. There will also be a slight chance of
showers midday on Thursday at gld..mck looks to be a bit drier
midday on Thursday.
&&
Gld watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
Colorado...none.
NE...none.
&&
$$
Short term...jjm
long term...fs
aviation...Lockhart/aw
