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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
214 PM MDT sun Oct 4 2015

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 211 PM MDT sun Oct 4 2015

Across the forecast area this afternoon...skies have been trending
slowly to pcldy/mcldy from the overcast conditions seen over the
past day and a half. Temperatures are ranging from the u50s to
around 70f.

Slow clearing trend will continue into the evening and overnight
hours with surface ridge nosing westward from the northern plains
and upper ridge building west into the eastern rockies. The upper
ridge building into the eastern rockies will focus precipitation associated
with the cutoff low off the Pacific western and
southwestern portions of the country. This is going to give the County Warning Area
a precipitation-free evening...stretching on into Monday...will be going
with patchy fog of western zones after midnight into Monday morning.

Even with clearing skies from the south...the southerly fetch
remains over the will go with overnight lows in the middle
40s. With partly cloudy/mostly sunny conditions expected for
Monday...added sunshine will boost daytime highs more to near normal
with highs in the lower to middle 70s.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 211 PM MDT sun Oct 4 2015

Chances for rainfall middle week then dry weather returns.
Temperatures will be near to above normal.

Little has changed regarding the forecasted path of the upper level
closed low and its associated impact on the weather for the tri-
state area during this period. The track of the upper level low
continues to be southeast across New Mexico Tuesday into Thursday.
East of the upper level low there will be chances for rainfall first
over the western half to third of the area Tuesday night. Wednesday
the rainfall will shift to the east half of the area as an area of
storms will move into the eastern part of the area from the

Wednesday night an upper level trough will move over the plains from
the northwest and may bring another round of rainfall with it.
Accompanying the trough will be a cold front which will further aid
in developing rainfall. Behind the upper level trough and cold
front drier air will move into the area on Thursday...bringing the
chances for rainfall to an end.

From Thursday night through Sunday an upper level ridge will build
into the area. A short wave trough will break down the ridge
briefly on Saturday but there will be little to no moisture with
this trough passage.

Temperatures for the period will gradually warm until Thursday when
the cold front moves through. The coolest temperatures will be
Friday with the warming trend continuing through Sunday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1136 am MDT sun Oct 4 2015

For kgld...MVFR conditions through 14z Monday then VFR skies.
Ceilings will range from bkn010-030 through 14z...then bkn040. Patchy
fog with 6sm visibility possible from 08z-14z Monday. Winds south-southeast

For kmck...MVFR/VFR mix of sky conditions with bkn030-060. Winds
east-southeast 5-10kts becoming south by 15z Monday.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...jn
long term...jtl

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