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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
1152 am MST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

issued at 1149 am MST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Winds have increased as previously mentioned. Gusts just under 40 knots
have been observed at locations in northwestern portions of the
forecast area.

Update issued at 806 am MST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Have increased winds across the region for this morning and
afternoon after seeing observations near 15 to 20 kts already. At
this time...not certain how high winds will be due to cloud cover
entering the region from the north. Based on 850mb
winds...strongest gusts could be around 35 kts mixing down this

Update issued at 310 am MST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

9z RUC/hrrr and 6z NAM show some reduced visibilities from near
Trenton to Norton and points east early this afternoon associated
with some snow flurries/light snow moving down from central
Nebraska. Have updated grids to introduce a chance of snow
flurries for a few hours as a result.


Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 230 am MST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Today-tonight...530dm upper low pressure center over northwest
Iowa this morning forecast to slowly move northeast reaching
southwest Minnesota by the end of the day then near the Great Lakes
by 12z Wednesday. The forecast area will be under wraparound
cloudiness and northwest winds in the 15 to 20 miles per hour range with higher
gusts during the daytime hours. Will have to watch out for some snow
flurries which could move in generally east of a line from Trenton
to Hill City. Both clouds and winds will decrease overnight. High
temperatures in the middle to upper 30s with lows in the middle teens to
middle 20s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...upper level ridging slowly builds toward
the area from the west ahead of a deep upper trough that approaches
but remains off the West Coast. A sunny sky expected during the day
with perhaps a bit of cirrus moving in at night. High temperatures
in the middle 40s to low 50s. 850mb temperatures at full mixing would
support readings quite a bit higher in the Hill City to McCook areas
with middle 50s. With the rest of the guidance showing lower readings
have split the difference for now. Lows in the low teens to around
20 in far eastern Colorado...middle teens to around 20 elsewhere.

Thursday-Thursday the West Coast trough moves ashore
during the afternoon the upper ridge axis shifts over the area. A
few high clouds move in from the west but not enough to deter a
sunny forecast. Cirrus continue over the area during the night but
only enough for a mostly clear sky. Upper ridge axis starts to move
east of the area as large scale trough slowly moves east but well
west of our area. 850mb temperatures warm about 1-5f across the area
supporting 50 to 55 for afternoon highs. Low temperatures in the middle
teens to low 20s.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 100 am MST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

For this extended forecast period...the primary weather story will
be dry weather with near to above normal temperatures. One upper
level disturbance remains advertised by forecast guidance. This
system is a weak...cut off low pressure that moves from the
southwestern United States to the Southern Plains on Saturday or
Sunday. Overall...models are in decent agreement on the movement of
this trough albeit minor differences in location. The key difference
between the solutions is moisture availability. The winter storm
system currently located now in Minnesota forced most of the
available moisture well south...toward the Gulf Coast. With minimal
moisture advection from the south ahead of this system...the chances
for significant precipitation are minuscule. Weak moisture advection
from the north ahead of an encroaching cold front is possible but
that is about it. The superblend initialization procedure provided
slight chance probability of precipitation and will maintain that mention. If precipitation
were to occur...little to no liquid/snow accumulation would occur as
it currently stands.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1052 am MST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

VFR conditions expected throughout the taf period at kgld with low
level wind shear 020/33045kt possible overnight. Conditions are
anticipated to deteriorate to MVFR at kmck early in the taf period
as clouds and snow flurries wrap around a low pressure system
heading towards the Great Lakes region. Flurries may reduce
visibilities this afternoon. Conditions should improve early this

Winds will be from the northwest at both terminals with
gusts of 20 to 30 kts possible this afternoon into the evening
hours. Cloud cover will start to decrease tonight with sunny skies
expected tomorrow.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...99
long term...rrh

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