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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas
410 am MDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Short term...(today through Friday night)
issued at 311 am MDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Short term forecast concerns revolve around isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day and the slight risk of severe storms today
and again on Thursday.

An upper trough deepens along the West Coast tonight. The
resulting low pressure center aloft moves into position over
Southern California Thursday night and remains there through
Friday night. At the same time...high pressure strengthens aloft
over the Texas Gulf Coast with a ridge extending northward through
the central U.S. By Friday and Friday night. This upper pattern
results in a more amplified southwest flow that remains in place
over the southwestern United States and continues to transport a
number of disturbances across The Rockies and Central High plains
region through the end of the work week.

With a model shift to a more amplified pattern over the western
and central portion of the United States...the persistent surface
low present in the Lee of The Rockies as a result of the flow
aloft is expected to remain in the vicinity of southeast
Colorado/southwest Kansas instead of further south over the
Panhandle region as previously expected. This will place the
thunderstorm activity previously expected to be centered over the
forecast area today through Friday further northward in closer
proximity to the coincident surface boundaries and upper short
waves as they lift across the Central High plains...mainly across
the area extending from northeast Colorado eastward across the
Nebraska and Kansas border area today and Thursday. Have therefore
decreased the probability of precipitation across much of the forecast area...keeping
northeast Colorado and north central Kansas and south central
Nebraska areas in the favored areas of precipitation and
thunderstorm development.

With cooling temperatures aloft and moist near surface flow
extending from the Gulf of Mexico today and through much of
Thursday...expect daytime heating today to produce areas of
strong instability and shear favoring supercells across portions
of northeast Colorado and western Nebraska with supercells and
possibly an mesoscale convective system across south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas overnight tonight. Expect another round of
thunderstorms...some possibly severe...again Thursday and Thursday
night mainly extending from northeast Colorado eastward along the
Kansas/Nebraska border in the vicinity of where a nearly
stationary front is expected to reside.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 242 am MDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

At the beginning of the extended period models still show a upper
level low over the western U.S. Which is a factor to the upper level
southwest flow that continues over the region. Low level moisture
also continues to be advected into the plains from the Gulf of
Mexico. Shortwave troughs will continue to move along this southwest
flow and over the region into next week. Which means the tri state
area remains in a very active pattern for most of the period.

At the end of the period the models are showing signs that the upper
level flow will shift more westerly... and then become
northwesterly... after the extended period... as it looks like an
upper level ridge will move over the area. However... it is too soon
to know for sure if that will happen.

Meanwhile... back to our current pattern. Convective activity will
continue over the tri state region for most of the extended period.
Look for scattered showers and chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Highs temperatures will reach into the low to middle 80s
while the low temperatures will maintain in the upper 50s to low


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1127 PM MDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

VFR conditions will continue for kgld tonight. There is a slight
chance of a thunderstorm near kmck as a line of storms to the
north of kmck moves southeast across Nebraska. The forecast
sounding for kmck shows some potential for stratus and fog with
resulting MVFR conditions at kmck early Wednesday. There will be
another slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
then increasing chances Wednesday evening at kgld and kmck as a
front moves south across the plains.


Gld watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Lockhart

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