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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
853 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

Short term...(tonight through Thursday night)
issued at 245 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

A huge ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Great
Basin with eastern Utah and western Colorado under northwest flow along its
eastern side. A week upper trough will continue passing over and
through the ridge this evening and spread scattered high clouds
over the area. There will be no precipitation from it. Areas of
haze a fog should return to the vicinity's of Vernal...canyonlands
Airport...Craig and Eagle late tonight.

The highly amplified western ridge will begin to be battered by
Pacific energy on Thursday. This ridge will be able to hold strong
through tomorrow night. The main impact downstream will be from moisture
surviving the trip over the apex of the ridge and flowing into The
Rockies as high level cloudiness. This could have some impact on
both high and low temperatures during this period but will have to
watch satellite imagery to get a better handle on this. Still
expect the cold air to stay trapped in the Gunnison and portions
of the Yampa River basins where the coldest temperatures will be

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 245 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

The ridge will finally begin to be deformed by late Friday as a
stronger piece of upstream energy crosses the left coast of noam
near the Canada/US border. The ridge axis will be forced east of
The Rockies Friday night and be totally flattened by Saturday
afternoon. This will bring in a slightly cooler regime with enough
energy in the flow to bring snow showers to the northern mountains
through Sunday morning. From Sunday into the early workweek the
ridge will rebuild across the west and again amplify the
flow...bring a more northerly component to the flow across our
County Warning Area. A stronger moisture tap into the ridge looks to be occurring
with another possible atmospheric river event developing.
Orographic snow showers over the northern and central mountains
into Monday evening...with models showing Sunday evening as the
time frame for the best organization of precipitation. Going into
the middle to late week time frame the expanding western ridge will
bring a return to mostly dry and sunny conditions. Temperatures in
the lower elevations will still be closely tied to the strength of
low level inversions. Would assume much of the snow pack will be
dwindling in elevations below 6000 feet and there is a chance of
temperatures pushing above normal in these areas by next week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 852 PM MST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at most locations through the next 24
hours. The exception will be for periods of MVFR or brief IFR visibility
due to fog or haze in a few areas where valley inversions persist.
The Uinta Basin will continue see the most widespread haze.
Visibility at kvel will generally range from 4-6sm through the
period...but may briefly drop below that range. Other airports
that may again see periods of fog or haze through around middle
morning Thursday include kege...kcny and especially kcag.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...15

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