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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1137 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL 
CONTINUE TO FEED INSTABILITY BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH 
SUNSET. CAN RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT WEAKER 
SHEAR PROFILES TODAY SUGGEST STORMS WON/T PACK AS STRONG AS PUNCH AS 
THE PAST FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT 
AND WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT LACKING...A QUICK DOWN TURN IN 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY CLEAR 
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RESULT OF THE CLEARING 
SKIES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AREAS OF GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS 
AS THE GROUND BEGINS TO DRY OUT.

A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR
ACCOMPANYING IT. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH MAX
TEMPS SOARING TO 5 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE RIDGELINE WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...
OPENING UP EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO TO INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN MOISTURE WILL INCREMENTALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PARAMETERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z SATURDAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 KTS...HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. MOUNTAINS MAY BE BRIEFLY OBSCURED NEAR SHOWERS.
TERMINL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH AND VICINITY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN TERMINAL FORECASTS ATTM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15/CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC

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