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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
325 PM MST Friday Mar 6 2015

Short term...(tonight through Saturday night)
issued at 325 PM MST Friday Mar 6 2015

The Rex block in the west will slowly be deformed by a piece of
the Pacific jet topping...then diving down the backside of the
ridge late tonight into Saturday. The short wave being pushed
along with the jet will arrive to our northern doorstep by sunrise
Sunday as the wind maximum above noses into northern Utah. The most we
can expect to see prior to the wave/S arrival is passing then
thickening high clouds. Otherwise we should see temperatures warm
another 3 to 8 degrees on Saturday under partly cloudy skies.
Warming in the higher valleys today may melt enough snow that fog
will start to make an appearance in the early morning hours.
Looking a cross sections The Eagle valley looks the most
susceptible to this. Otherwise lows may stay a tad under normal
with mainly clear skies to night and slowly moderate by Saturday
night with a bit more mixing and cloud cover ahead of the
approaching wave Saturday night.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 325 PM MST Friday Mar 6 2015

A weak shortwave and cold front will drop from north to south
along the eastern slopes of the central rockies sun/sun evening.
This northern branch disturbance will meet up with the remnants
of a southern branch low pressure system tracking across southern
nm into West Texas. Moisture out ahead of the southern low will try
and work its way into our southeastern corner. This moderate at
best moisture combined with increased instability will result in
a chance of some showers developing Sun afternoon/evening...
confined mainly to the southern mountains. The cooler air will
stay mainly to the east of the mountains...but it will slow our
warming trend a tad.

The West Coast ridge then dominates...and shifts east through the
middle of the week. Models have been trying to bring Pacific
energy/moisture into the region beginning on Thursday. However the
model trend has been for less and later. Still lots of
uncertainty...but there is still the potential for more unsettled
conditions from Friday into the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 325 PM MST Friday Mar 6 2015

With only high cloudiness drifting over eastern Utah and western
Colorado the next 24 hours...VFR conditions will prevail. Melting
of the new snow pack may lead to some areas of light fog during
the early morning hours. Confidence is too low to place in
terminal forecasts at this time but probabilities are the highest in The
Eagle valley overnight.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...15

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