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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
334 am MDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 334 am MDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

If you want to read about showers and storms...then read the long
term section. Dry southwest flow will dominate Tuesday and
Wednesday and no storms are expected (with one lone exception). A
trough still remains along the West Coast...but will advecting dry
air instead of Pacific moisture. The flow does turn more cyclonic
on Wednesday afternoon...a storm or two may pop over Daggett County
in NE Utah. Otherwise some afternoon breezes can be expected the
next two afternoons. Hot and dusty rules...but may not last.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 334 am MDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Dry and warm conditions persist Wednesday night and Thursday...
before we see another major surge of moisture lift north across
the region. Models in decent agreement bringing the remnants of
Hurricane Andres and Tropical Storm Blanca northward into the
southwest U.S. As a deepening area of low pressure drops south
along the West Coast. Low bottoms out near Los Angeles before
turning north-northeast late in the weekend. Deep southerly draw will try to
tap moisture off of Hurricane Andres late Thursday night and
Friday. Models driving precipitable water values to well over an
inch by late Friday...with the GFS being the most aggressive. GFS
moisture transport vectors show deepest moisture arriving over The
Four Corners region Friday evening with the deep southerly fetch
remaining in place through the weekend. Blanca surge arrives
Sunday...reinforcing the wet conditions and promising to make this
an extremely interesting Hydro weekend across eastern Utah and
western Colorado. Concerns would be very efficient rain producing
thunderstorms and lightning with potential for flooding. Important
to note that GFS ensembles not as aggressive with the moisture
fields...but still showing trend toward wet conditions. Even if
deepest moisture slides to either side of our County Warning Area...the weekend
will still be wet for most areas and have increased pop fields
accordingly. In addition...after a very warm to even hot start to
this extended period...temperatures will be falling back to below normal
over the weekend with abundant cloud cover and showers in the
area. Latest extended guidance reasonable and will not be making
major adjustments to those fields.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 334 am MDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

VFR conditions prevail through tonight with dry southwest flow in
place. No thunderstorms are expected this afternoon or evening.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...jdc

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