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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
340 PM MDT Friday may 29 2015

Short term...(tonight through Saturday night)
issued at 340 PM MDT Friday may 29 2015

Moisture wrapping around low pressure in western Nebraska will
continue to feed instability based showers and isolated storms
across the northern 2/3 of our County Warning Area from late afternoon through
sunset. Can rule out some gusty winds and small hail but weaker
shear profiles today suggest storms won't pack as strong as punch as
the past few days. Drier air will continue to advect in overnight
and with large scale ascent lacking...a quick down turn in
convective precipitation is expected after sunset. Mainly clear
skies and cooler temperatures will be a result of the clearing
skies. There could again be areas of ground fog in low lying areas
as the ground begins to dry out.

A ridge over the Great Basin will continue building over the area
Sat and Sat night...with strong warm advection and drier air
accompanying it. Maximum temperatures will rise back to normal or even a few
degrees above normal. Only isolated weak showers are expected in
the late afternoon and early evening over the higher mountains.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 340 PM MDT Friday may 29 2015

The strong ridge will continue building over the area with maximum
temperatures soaring to 5 or more degrees above normal Sunday and Monday.
The Ridgeline will pass east of the area by Monday evening...
opening up eastern Utah and western Colorado to increasing SW winds aloft
and at the surface. Monday through Wednesday the next Pacific
trough will slowly move into the western Great Basin. The
forecast area will remain under a dry slot ahead of the trough
until about Wednesday afternoon. Then moisture will incrementally
increase across the area as the trough moves into the Great Basin.
Warm and dry southwest winds will remain the dominant weather
parameters through Friday.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 340 PM MDT Friday may 29 2015

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will affect
the mountains until about sunset...then dissipate. Only local Montana
obscurations are expected with thunderstorms in the vicinity in tafs for kase...kege and
kvel until about 02z. VFR conditions will prevail overnight
through Saturday afternoon.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...15/cc
long term...cirrocumulus

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