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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
342 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH SE ID...W WY AND N UT TODAY
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST UT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN LINGER OVER WESTERN CO THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE
UPPER CIRCULATION TO OUR NORTH...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SIT UNDER
A TIGHTER GRADIENT WITH SOME JET SUPPORT DEVELOPING FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER JET ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
BUT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LOOK FOR A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN UT AND FAR SOUTHWEST
CO WILL BE THE DRIEST...WITH THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE WETTEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY EARLY FRI EVENING THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
ITS SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PLUNGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. RIDGING
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA KEEPING PRECIPITATION CLOSE TO THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED DOWN THE FRONT RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALONG AND EAST ON THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEXT
WEEK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER. 

THE NEXT TROUGH THE AFFECT THE AREA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA
TUE AND CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH WED. SW WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BOTH DAYS AND EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO SHOULD
BE UNDER THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW ILS CUTOFFS AT KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KVEL...AND ANY AIRPORTS OVER NW CO. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE 
STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC

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