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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
1124 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)
issued at 231 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

With some middle-level drying and warmer afternoon temperatures...
instability has increased. Dynamical support near The Four Corners
will favor storm coverage there potentially beyond midnight. Storm
motion will be to the north at 15 miles per hour. Training storms in southeast Utah
and SW San Juan Mountains have a low chance of producing runoff
problems. Otherwise temperatures will be above seasonal norms.

Models indicated the low pressure center responsible for our
recent unsettled weather will wobble in the vicinity of the Arizona-
nm-Mexico triple point Wednesday. As a result...flow will spill
southward over the forecast area advecting drier Continental air
into the region. However...despite drying all models were
consistent in indicating that residual moisture over the San Juan
Mountains and along the central Divide ranges will generate
scattered afternoon/evening showers and embedded thunderstorms.
Given the shrinking sun unlikely this activity will
persist past sunset and clouds will decrease during the remainder
of the night.

Daytime highs will continue to moderate in response to increased
sunshine bringing highs to near...or a little above normal on
Wednesday. Overnight lows for Thursday morning will also be

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 231 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Models were in good agreement during the remainder of the week...
through the weekend and into early next week. All of the
operational solutions take the low and its moisture southward
into Mexico Thursday...then have the low retrograding over the
eastern Pacific off of the Baja California peninsula from Friday through
Tuesday. During this period...dry northwest flow will shift to the
west a result...the forecast will be characterized by dry
and unseasonably mild/warm conditions.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1121 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

A few showers persist over the central mountains but they should
lift to the east as the night progresses. Another round of
showers/storms look to develop over the San Juans tomorrow
afternoon with ktex seeing some thunderstorms in the vicinity. Kase and kege may also see
some showers in the afternoon but confidence not high enough yet
to include in taf. Remaining taf sites will remain VFR with
clearing conditions after 00z.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Joe/nl
long layers

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