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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado
847 PM MST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)
issued at 718 PM MST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

Over night temperatures will be above normal with just some high
level cloud cover otherwise uneventful. The next storm system
will track from the northern California coast into northern Nevada by
Wednesday morning.

Upper low appears to be pretty much on target for reaching
central Nevada midday Wednesday...then into western Utah Wednesday
night. Our County Warning Area should remain rather dry on Wednesday...except for
a few showers spreading into the higher elevations of NE Utah late
in the afternoon. Then the cold front expected to slide eastward
across our County Warning Area Wednesday night with most of the moisture spreading
into the northern portion of our County Warning Area. Although snow levels will
be falling...moisture is not impressive and snow amounts mostly in
the 1-2 inch range for the northern and central mountains...even
less in the southern mountains.

Breezy to windy conditions expected to develop in most areas of
our County Warning Area on Wednesday...with most valley inversions mixing out.
Could be some localized blowing dust at lower elevations...and
some blowing snow at the highest mountain elevations. Should be a
very mild day in most locations...with maximum temperatures generally
5-8 degrees above normal.

Small fly in the ointment is small patch of middle level moisture
most models are insistent will traverse San Juan Mountains
Wednesday for perhaps a few snow flurries over the highest peaks.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 359 PM MST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

Thanksgiving day through Friday night appears to be a
continuation of Wednesday night/S weather for most locations...
scattered snow showers mainly northern zones. Additional
accumulations of snow likely in the 1-2 inch category for the
northern and central mountains...with lesser amounts in the
southern mountains and some lower elevations. Near to a little
below normal maximum temperatures can be expected at most locations.

Then the weekend is looking a little more interesting...with the
upper low remaining to our west on Saturday...then on to a very
slow process of ejection to the northeast by Sunday night...then
troughiness hanging back over the region on Monday and into
Tuesday. Models are indicating moisture spreading across our County Warning Area
at times through this period. Expect little change in
temperatures through the weekend...then a little cooler Monday
and Tuesday. Presently...the models are indicating more snow for
our County Warning Area Saturday through Monday than the next 3 least
twice as much for most of our mountain locations. Will be
interesting to see how it all pans out as there is little
confidence on timing and moisture quantity for any particular
12-hour period due to run-to-run model differences.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday evening)
issued at 359 PM MST Tuesday Nov 24 2015

Patchy high clouds will continue to move over the region and VFR
conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Strengthening
southwest winds after 17z Wednesday will become a problem causing
widespread significant mechanical turbulence and mountain waves.
Low level wind shear may be a problem at kase and kmtj after 17z.


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...jrp

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