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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
FOR INCREASED WIND GUSTS. ALSO TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT FOR POPS
DURING THE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BEFORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION/TSTM CHANCES 
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z ALONG WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS UPPER WAVE HAS PROGRESSED OVER THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH 
PLAINS. NICE SPIN CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE JUST ENTERING WRN NEB. 
DRY SLOT NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHILE SUB TROPICAL TAP OF 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EAST OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW 
PRESSURE WAS OVER NW IOWA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PRETTY MUCH THROUGH 
OUR CWA AS IT EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN KS. 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND 
FRONT OF 3 MB OVER CENTRAL SDAK WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
NORTHERN NEB. DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG/JUST BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AS 
THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN OUR CWA...COMPARED TO 
MID 40S IN CENTRAL SDAK AND MID 30S IN CENTRAL NDAK.  POST FRONTAL 
SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH EDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA AS OF 130PM LOCAL 
TIME. 

WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH SUNSHINE TODAY TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S 
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA IN SPITE OF NORTH WINDS. LOWER CLOUD DECK HAS 
FINALLY REACHED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ENDING THE HEATING 
THERE FOR TODAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH WARMING HAS OCCURRED TO RESULT IN ML 
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EARLIER 
SCENARIO OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE 
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE 
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA.  ALSO EXPECT IT TO GET QUITE BREEZY OVER 
THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT NOTED 
ABOVE. 

EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER BY SUNSET DUE TO THE 
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE WINDS 
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN JUST A BIT AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL BE IN THE 10-20 
MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT 
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS DRIER AIR DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. IT 
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT ALL IN ALL NOT TOO 
BAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LONGER TERM FORECAST STARTS OF QUITE COOL...AND TURNS SUMMER-LIKE 
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WORK EAST 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 40S...WITH LOWER 40S AT SOME LOCATIONS. THAT WOULD BE AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WESTERN AREAS MAY LEVEL OFF TOWARD
DAWN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ALREADY BY THEN. 

WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY COOLISH SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON MARKING A TRANSITION TO INCREASING 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/SREF/ECMWF 
PROGS ARE POINT TOWARD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A 
LOW LEVEL JET TAPS INCREASING THETAE MOISTURE AND STEEPENING MID 
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE CONTINUED THE RAIN CHANCE AND TRIED TO TIME 
IT TO THE AFTER MIDNIGHT/BEFORE NOON TIMEFRAME COMMON WITH THESE 
EVENTS. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE HOLD BACK MONDAY IN THE 
EASTERN FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS LINGERING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL 
JUMP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...THANKS IN PART 
TO A SOLID SOUTH BREEZE. 

THE REST OF THE WEEK IS MORE SUMMER-LIKE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ATTEMPTS TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER...ALTHOUGH IT TENDS TO GIVE WAY
TO TROUGH TO THE WEST BY WEEKS END. AN INTERESTING WEEK BECAUSE
IT WON/T BE AS "WET" AS PREVIOUS FEW WEEKS...BUT MAY NOT BE "DRY" 
EITHER. WE HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY TO START...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. 
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MID/LATE WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF HIGH 
PLAINS CONVECTIVE EPISODES WORKING EAST AT NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO NAIL 
DOWN SPECIFICS OF ANY PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES 5-7 DAYS OUT IN 
THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN. FIRST PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD HAVE A 
GOOD SOUTH BREEZE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ON 
AVERAGE EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD IN A TIGHT GRADIENT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WIND SPEEDS WILL
SUBSIDE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THE AFTN. MVFR CIGS
WILL BREAK EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...FAY

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