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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR THE OVERWHELMING MOST PART...THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY REMAINS VERY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE EARLY-MORNING
ISSUANCE...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP...VERY LITTLE
CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS (ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA). ABOUT THE ONLY ELEMENT THAT HAS NEEDED A
LITTLE TWEAKING IS DEWPOINTS...WHICH LIKE YESTERDAY HAVE MIXED
DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW EXPECTATIONS IN MOST AREAS AND PROBABLY
HAVEN/T EVEN LOWERED THEM QUITE ENOUGH YET. TEMP-WISE...MADE A
VERY MINOR 1-DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 73-77
RANGE OR RIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL 
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES 
AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A SEASONABLE START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A 
COOLER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED IN BEHIND YESTERDAYS FRONT. WITH 850 MB 
TEMPS ABOUT 6-7C BELOW YESTERDAYS VALUES...EXPECT A SEASONABLY NICE 
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DRY WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AFTER SATURDAYS READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

WITH THIS COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD 
FREE SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES 
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS EXPECTED TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. AS A
RESULT...TRENDED FORECAST TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY THIS 
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF BUT 
GRADUALLY WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/WEAK LOW. THE LOW IS 
CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA...AND WILL START TO TRACK NORTHWEST 
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND GRADUALLY WANDER INTO THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY REGION WILL STUNT THE LOWS MOVEMENT EAST...AND EVENTUALLY 
HELP WEAKEN THE LOW ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONALLY NICE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE WEST AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING STILL THINK A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN IS REASONABLE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT IN THE WEST
WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT BY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AS IT INCHES TOWARD THE AREA.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE 
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS 
PERIOD IS NOT A RAINOUT...BUT CHANCES APPEAR FAIRLY GOOD...AT LEAST 
ENOUGH TO EXPECT SOME RAIN AROUND. NOT SURE JUST HOW WIDESPREAD OR 
UNIFORM RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS COULD EASILY PICK 
UP AN INCH OR RAIN...WHILE OTHERS HOLD AROUND A TENTH OR SO. HAVE 
CONTINUED WITH PRETTY HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAYISH TIME FRAME GIVEN
WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY...SO WOULD AM LEANING
TOWARD ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE TO THAT POINT...AND THE
ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STORM IS MOST LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY THAN ANY OTHER TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A BIT
TUES./WED. WITH CLOUDS AROUND.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BY WEEKS END...ALTHOUGH 
SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE LOW IS PROJECTED IN ALL THE MODELS BASICALLY 
IN OUR AREA. SO THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
STORMS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WOULD EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THIS IS ONE OF THOSE UNUSUALLY-HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY FORECASTS...AS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A BROKEN
MID LEVEL VFR CEILING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE FINAL FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD IT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE CLEAR AND ALMOST
CERTAINLY PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AS FOR
SURFACE BREEZES...THEY WILL START OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TOUCH
OF NORTHERLY GUSTINESS BEFORE STEADILY SUBSIDING BY EARLY
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN STARTING
TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD AVERAGE UNDER
12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

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