Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
527 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 213 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014
An area of surface high pressure across the northern rockies will
slide southeastward through the day...providing mainly clear skies
and light winds across the forecast area this afternoon.
After a seasonable start to the day...expect temperatures to climb
into the middle 70s across the majority of the forecast area as a
cooler airmass has settled in behind yesterdays front. With 850 mb
temperatures about 6-7c below yesterdays values...expect a seasonably nice
afternoon across the region with a dry weather day anticipated
across the Central Plains...after saturdays readings in the
middle to upper 80s.
With this cooler airmass in place...continued light winds and cloud
free skies...expect temperatures to plummet overnight tonight into
early Monday morning...with low temperatures about 5-10 degrees
below seasonal norms expected to start the new work week. As a
result...trended forecast temperatures down a couple of degrees below
Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 213 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014
Beginning Monday and continuing through Friday...the main story this
long term forecast period will be the influence of a cut-off but
gradually weakening upper level short wave/weak low. The low is
currently over California...and will start to track northwest
through the Great Basin...and gradually wander into the Central
Plains. Upper level high pressure in the Mississippi/Ohio River
valley region will stunt the lows movement east...and eventually
help weaken the low especially from Wednesday through Friday.
Monday will be another seasonally nice day across the forecast area.
High clouds will thicken from the west as the day wears on...but with
short wave ridging still think a good amount of sun is reasonable...
especially east of Highway 281. Winds will pick up a bit in the west
with tightening surface gradient by afternoon. Have keep a small
chance for late afternoon thunderstorm ahead of the aforementioned
upper level low pressure as it inches toward the area.
The main precipitation event associated with the system will be
later Monday night through Tuesday night/early Wednesday. This
period is not a rainout...but chances appear fairly good...at least
enough to expect some rain around. Not sure just how widespread or
uniform rain amounts will be...although some areas could easily pick
up an inch or rain...while others hold around a tenth or so. Have
continued with pretty high rain chances for tuesdayish time frame given
what seems to be good model agreement at this point. Middle level
instability looks weak until midday Tuesday...so would am leaning
toward isolated storm coverage to that point...and the
anticipation of a stronger storm is most likely later in the day
Tuesday than any other time. Temperatures will dip a bit
Tuesday./Wed. With clouds around.
What is left of the low weakens quite a bit by weeks end...although
some semblance of the low is projected in all the models basically
in our area. So there is a 20 percent chance for showers/isolated
storms lingering into Friday...but would expect the vast majority of
Thursday and Friday to be dry for most of the forecast area.
Temperatures will rebound to at or slightly above seasonal
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 524 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with virtually
cloud free skies and mainly light winds as an area of surface high
pressure across northwestern Nebraska transitions southeastward
across the state...setting into the Missouri River valley by
early Monday morning.