Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE
334 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 331 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Satellite and observations show clear skies across the region.
Surface analysis has a weak cold front in the central portion of the
forecast area at this time. Behind the cold front winds turned to
the northwest and increased with some gustiness.

The weak cold front is expected to continue moving south through the
forecast area late this afternoon and into the early evening hours.
As the sun sets this evening the winds are expected to die off
again. A surface high pressure system settles into the area tonight.
This will allow for light and variable winds during the night. The
question becomes how cold will it get tonight? The axis of the
surface high is further to the east tonight than last night which
should keep temperatures a little warmer. With the forecast a bit
warmer than last night have kept frost out of the forecast.

The surface high pressure system remains in the vicinity Wednesday
morning before finally drifting further to the east. Winds will be
light tomorrow and gradually turn to the south during the afternoon.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 331 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

The long term pattern continues to remain consistent at least the
majority of the long term with an upper level ridge nearly stagnant
across the western Continental U.S. And northwest flow across the Central
Plains. An upper level cutoff low continues to spin off the coast of
Baja California California. This low will gradually shift eastward towards the
beginning of next week and merge with the upper level flow bringing
the first chance for precipitation to the plains in a while.

The main focus of the long term periods was centered around
temperature forecasts this week and also on precipitation chances
beginning next week.

A strong cold front will slide through the region Thursday morning
allowing much cooler air to settle southward across the plains. High
temperatures Thursday and even Friday will be as much as 5 to 10
degrees cooler than Wednesday. Northwest to north winds will pick up
behind the front and become quite breezy Thursday afternoon.
However...a surface high will slowly build southward across the
plains Thursday night into Friday morning which will allow winds to
die off and temperatures to plummet. Model guidance continues to
come in lower each day...with the current forecast of 30s in most
locations and even upper 20s for some areas north of Interstate 80.
Continued the patchy and areas of frost in the grids...but some
folks will definitely need to think about covering plants and
expecting possible hard freeze conditions. Friday night into
Saturday morning is a bit more questionable regarding low
temperatures as the high shifts eastward. Southerly return flow will
likely keep temperatures from plummeting too much overnight. Thus
temperatures have not changed much from the previous forecasts.

For the remainder of the long term period dry conditions are
expected until the beginning of the week. The upper level low across
California will become absorbed into the mean flow and bring chances
for precipitation along a passing cold are expected Monday night
into Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 18z kgri/kear tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1222 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

A weak cold front will move through the terminals early this
afternoon. The only real note with the front will be a switch to
northwest winds that will increase and become a little gusty.
Another surface high settles into the area for tonight and most of
Wednesday which will allow for light and variable winds.


Fire weather...
issued at 331 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Winds are finally picking up behind the front and winds are gusting
to around 25 miles per hour. By the time the front gets further to the south
the wind will start to diminish behind the front.


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for nez039>041-



long term...saltzman

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations