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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE
311 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 311 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Aloft: north-northwest flow will gradually become more northwest through tomorrow as
deamplification of the western ridge/eastern trough begins. Heights will
rise about 120 M. No significant perturbations are envisioned.

Surface: a stationary front bisected Nebraska/Kansas and extended north-northwest into
the Canadian prairies. This front will gradually inch east of the
forecast area over the next 30 hours as a weak clipper dives south-southeast along
it... into ND by dawn Wednesday and into Nebraska in the afternoon.

Rest of this afternoon: M/cloudy. There is a longitudinal band of
multi-layered clouds associated with the front and associated jet.

Tonight: M/cloudy. There is some weak fgen along the front...and
some instability is forecast to develop above it. However...there is
no synoptic forcing...so lift is minimal. We've seen some light
radar returns over South Dakota. Most of it has not been reaching the
ground...but did maintain a slight chance of flurries well north of
I-80.

Another mild night ahead. Lows 6-12f above normal.

Wed: clearing from west-east with frontal passage. Still could see a
few flurries well north of I-80 forenoon. Very low confidence in high
temperatures. Full sun and no snow would support highs in the 50s and
60s! But crusty snowcover is a major complication.

Last Sat looked very warm too...but effects of snowcover
dominated and the temperature profile was highly inverted. So used bias
corrected consensus of model 2m temperatures which offers 40s over the
snow and 50s where there is little or no snow over north-central Kansas.
This could be overdone.



Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 311 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

The long term is rather quiet weather-wise. Overall...noteworthy
items include temperatures and the small chance for precipitation
towards the end of the week.

The long term begins with a broad trough centered over eastern
parts of the Continental U.S. And ridging over the West Coast. We will be
under mostly northwesterly flow through the week until the ridge
eventually pushes east...and the upper level flow briefly becomes
more zonal above the Central Plains. A short wave trough comes
through this weekend. This will be the focus for the potential
precipitation this weekend...albeit a small chance at this time
and nothing to raise flags over. We currently have a slight chance
for snow showers north and northeast of the Tri-Cities...but again
nothing looks anywhere near daunting for snow amounts.

Temperatures will be near normal Thursday and Friday before will
cool down Saturday to below normal as a strong surface high pushes
in from the north. Those cool temperatures will be brief as we
warm up significantly to end the long term to temperatures in the
50s to near 60 for places across north central Kansas.



&&

Aviation...(for the 18z kgri/kear tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1157 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Significant weather: none.

This afternoon: VFR ceilings 6-7k feet. North winds around 15 kts gradually
decrease. Tempo gustiness to near 25 kts possible...mainly before
21z. Confidence: medium as there is some uncertainty with wind
direction in vicinity of a stationary front.

Tonight: VFR ceilings decrease to around 5k feet...but could drop as low
as 3500 feet for a couple hours. Winds become light and variable 00z-02z and
then become SW under 10 kts after passage of a warm front.
Confidence: high

Wednesday through 18z: VFR with ceilings lifting to 15k feet. Gradual clearing
from the west. SW winds under 10 kts become west. Confidence: high

&&

Gid watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...halblaub
long term...Guerrero
aviation...halblaub

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