Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CIRRUS HAVE BEEN THINNING ACROSS 
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO 
WARM UP. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST OR 
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. 

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. 
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE 
TROUGH AND EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES 
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. 

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE...WARM ADVECTION...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS 
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES. 

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

WE KICK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL 
BE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET AHEAD OF A BROAD 
TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE 
RETURN TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME FOG. I INCREASED DEW POINTS FROM 
NEAR 50 TO THE MID 50S. THE SREF INDICATES A DECENT SHOT AT SOME FOG 
WITH A LIKELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SEEMS MORE 
FAVORED IN OUR WEST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I PUT FOG EVERYWHERE...SINCE 
THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IN OUR EAST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO 
THOROUGHLY MIX THE FOG. I ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE HIGHER 
CHANCE OF STRATUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ANTICIPATED FOG 
DEVELOPMENT.

IT SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
COLD FRONT. A BIG CAVEAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AND 
WILL THIS AFFECT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. I WENT A LITTLE MORE 
CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THEM A BIT COOLER THAN 
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY ENTERS THE 
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME 
RAIN/SPRINKLES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND 
WITH THE QUICKER SPEED OF THE WAVE...OUR CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL 
THAT HIGH...AND IF WE DO GET RAIN...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A LOT. I 
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE.

FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS 
BEFORE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE 
WESTERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH 
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS ALL WE HAVE IN OUR FORECAST AS 
FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE GFS INDICATES THAT WE COULD GET A 
QUICK MOVING PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT KICK UP A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT 
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST 
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. FOR NOW...I 
WILL KEEP THIS DRY AS THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY 
FOR THIS PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE RIDGE PASSING TO THE EAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT 
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH AND WILL GIVE US NOTICEABLY COOLER 
TEMPERATURES...YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM...MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR 
HIGHS. I KICKED UP THE BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH 
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEPS WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS MAY TOP OUT
AROUND 10 MPH. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations