Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
202 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF FANTASTIC
EARLY SPRING WX WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH THAT PROBABLY PEAKS
WED...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

ALOFT: THE FLOW WILL REMAIN SPLIT OVER WRN N AMERICA THRU SAT...
WITH THE FCST AREA IN NW FLOW FROM THE NRN BRANCH. A SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL DIVE SE OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND MISS JUST TO THE
NE OF THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: A WEAK CLIPPER WILL HEAD SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
TRAILING COOL FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND BECOME
STATIONARY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
PROGRESSES. THE 00Z EC HAS IT ONLY OVER NRN/ERN NEB. THE 12Z
NAM/GFS TAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO KS. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR
TEMP FCST...ESPECIALLY N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES WHERE THE GFS
REALLY WANTS TO COOL IT DOWN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: BEAUTIFUL WITH LIGHT WINDS. ENJOY IT!

TONIGHT: MAINLY CLEAR AND QUIET. A FEW MID-LVL ALTOCU MAY DRIFT
THRU IN THE NE SKY.

SAT: SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT DID COOL THE NE 1/3 OF THE FCST A
BIT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE FRONTAL POSITION. SO THIS IS
MORE OF A HEDGE...JUST IN CASE THE GFS IS RIGHT. USED BIAS
CORRECTED SREF MEAN FOR HIGHS WHICH WAS ON THE WARMEST SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THAT MEANS 56-66F WITH 61-64F FOR THE TRI-
CITIES.

WHILE FIRE WX WILL NOT BE A CONCERN...USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDE
AND MAV MOS 18Z-00Z AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST AND WAS AMONG
THE LOWEST AVAILABLE. THEN SHAVED OFF ANOTHER 1-2F. DWPTS HAVE NOT
BEEN MODELED WELL YESTERDAY OR TODAY AND MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 20% RH.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE WEATHER IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING THRU
THE FLOW WILL SEND A COOL FRONT SOUTH THRU OUR REGION. MODELS
GENERATE LIGHT PCPN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LLVLS REMAIN DRY ACROSS OUR CWA AND ONLY EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
POST FRONTAL...BUT STILL MILD AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AGAIN IN
RISING HEIGHTS AS THE WEST COAST RIDGING MIGRATES EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70F ARE STILL LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK.

DID NOT DEVIATE FROM EXTENDED INIT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING A
POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST. FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY AND MILD FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

FCST IS ESSENTIALLY VFR SKC WITH WINDS MOSTLY FROM THE W.
AFTERNOON GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALL
ELEMENTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations