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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
559 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OVER NORTHWESTERN 
KANSAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AS A 
RESULT...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE DAYTIME 
HOURS AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT. THAT SAID...EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM 
TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP 
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH 
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH MINIMAL SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO 
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED...AND HENCE NO STRONG 
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT 
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 
WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT 
AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES...EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE SUSTAINED
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH...AND THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH A TEMPERATURE DROP OF NEAR 10C BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL MAKE
FOR A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT STEADY
BUT LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH
FROST FORMATION DESPITE THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE COLDER NIGHT WILL COME TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO 
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY THE WINDS WILL BE A 
BIT BREEZY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS 
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER RELATIVE 
HUMIDITIES WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL 
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE 
AREA MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO 
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE TO THE 
EAST ON TUESDAY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THERE IS A LITTLE WARM 
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER. TEMPERATURES 
WILL STILL BE COOL TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT JUST A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY 
NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH LINGERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR 
PATTERN...BUT HAVE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE REALIZED WEATHER THAT 
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE 
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE 
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOUTH IN THE AREA...BUT THE ECMWF HAS MORE 
THAN THE GFS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE IS A STRONGER WAVE ON 
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. 
THIS CONTINUES THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE ECMWF 
THAN THE GFS. FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS CLOSES THE LOW OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION...WHICH CONTINUES OVER THE 
AREA INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION 
AROUND FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
AND THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY 
NIGHT. NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF HAVE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA 
SO EXPECT JUST SHOWERS. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PASSING FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALREADY CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 1500 FT AGL AT ODX...AND EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS AND STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO REACH THE TERMINALS
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL THROUGH ABOUT 19/18Z. BY MID AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS SHOULD
RETURN...BUT WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET WHEN THEY BEGIN TO DECOUPLE FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI

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