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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL REGION
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF YESTERDAYS CONDITIONS...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
READINGS.

ALOFT...THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN IS
RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTELRY FLOW ALOFT...OCCASIONALLY STEERING
DISTURBANCES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. A VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
COLORADO AND GENERATING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATER IN
THE DAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD HELP SPARK SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE OVERALL THIS DISTURBANCE IS VERY WEAK...ACTIVITY
COULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND KEPT SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.EVENSO...
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE. WHILE THE HOTTEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE TRI-CITIES WILL
SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS WITH GOOD
MIXING AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS...MID 90S
SHOULD BE THE RULE. OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WINDS MAY LET UP SOME
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY SHOULD REMAIN STEADY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. 

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE BIGGEST ISSUES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH 
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WE START THE LONG TERM SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW...SITUATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES 
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE 
CWA SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO HAVE TO CONSIDER 
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO I 
DID INCREASE TEMPERATURES CENTRAL/SOUTH A BIT MORE THAN THE ALREADY 
WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGH 
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY TOPPING 100 DEGREES. ITS STILL UP FOR 
DEBATE HOW FAR SOUTHEAST DEWPOINTS BELOW 60 WILL MAKE IT BEHIND THE 
FRONT BEFORE IT STALLS...BUT TRENDS ARE BRINGING DEWPOINTS UP A 
BIT...WITH HASTINGS PERHAPS NOT GETTING MUCH BELOW 60 IF AT ALL 
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAT INDEX COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE EXPECTED 
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND MOISTURE POOLING FOR AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING...ROUGHLY THE 
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH MONDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO SUNDAY...IT 
WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS 
MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS PERHAPS NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS 
FORECASTS HAD SHOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH 
LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY WORKING THEIR WAY IN ALONG WITH 
LOWER DEWPOINTS FILTERING IN AS WELL.

THE SURFACE FRONT HAS POTENTIAL TO OSCILLATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS 
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK AS OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DIVERGE.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...I THINK WE SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY FOR 
MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN AND CONVECTION 
POTENTIAL STARTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...MORE LIKELY IN OUR 
EAST/SOUTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTION SUNDAY 
MORNING...BUT I AM TAKING AN EDUCATED GUESS THAT THIS WILL SLIP OFF 
TO THE EAST BY 12Z. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LATE 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER.

AS MONDAY ROLLS AROUND...WE COULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH HEATING AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH...TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME 
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY LOSE OUR CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN 
THE OSCILLATING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVES OUT OF THE 
AREA FRIDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES 
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE LLJ TO HELP INITIATE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
EVENSO...CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS FAIRLY LOW...SO OPTED NOT TO
MENTION A CB/VCTS IN THE CURRENT TAF AND ONLY INCLUDED SOME LLWS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEST LLJ ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VARIABLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD RELAX
SOME AFTER SUNSET...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY NEAR OR ABOVE
12KTS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR A TSRA TO THE
REGION...AND OPTED TO INCLUDE A CB AND MENTION OF A VCTS IN 06Z
TAFS AFT 06/04Z.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI

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