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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1135 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 327 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

The upper level trough axis...which was responsible for the
showers/thunderstorm activity last night and into
today...continues to push east across the plains this afternoon.
The accompanying surface cold front has made its way through the
entire County Warning Area...and is currently draped from WI SW into the Texas/OK
Panhandle area. Gusty north/northwest winds developed behind the front and
continue at this hour...sustained speeds are around 15 to 20
miles per hour...gusts are 25 to 30 miles per hour. Far southern locations were able to climb
to near 80 earlier today before the front moved though...but temperatures
as of 3 PM across the County Warning Area were in the Lower/Middle 70s.

As far as precipitation GOES through the rest of the short term
period...will continue to see the potential for a few
showers/thunderstorms across the southeastern third of the County Warning Area late this
afternoon...with the forecast from 00z on remaining dry. This
precipitation is driven by the lagging front off the surface...as the main
surface front is southeast of the County Warning Area. With it is the better instability...so
while a few rumbles of thunder are possible...not expecting severe
weather.

At the surface...behind the main front...high pressure currently
located roughly over the South Dakota/WY/Mt border area will continue to
build S/southeast with time tonight and tomorrow. Tonight...the ridge
axis will slide into the County Warning Area...and by 12z Tuesday the low is over
the eastern Dakotas. Winds are not expected to go calm...but will
diminish compared to current winds...gradually turning more nerly
with time. Expecting a cool night...especially for areas closer to the
surface high...and low temperatures currently forecast to drop to near 50 in
the Ord area...with upper 50s across NC Kansas.

Tomorrow is looking to be a pleasant day across the area...thanks
to that surface high keeping the cooler and drier air mass in place.
Dewpoints are forecast to drop into the 40s for a good chunk of
the County Warning Area...with highs in the middle 70s. East winds around 10 miles per hour are
expected.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 327 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

The long term does turn warmer after a cool start...with some rain
chance potential early on especially. The upper flow will take on
several modes...starting with broad cyclonic/westerly flow...then
to zonal/southwest flow on Thursday/Friday...and finally to another
Great Basin Region Ridge by next Monday. All of this metamorphosis
does bring some forecast challenges.

For Tuesday night/early Wednesday...most of the forecast will see
a cool/dry morning with low temperatures 10-12 degrees below
normal. Yet...some models suggest an upper wave will skirt the
southeast tip of the forecast in north central Kansas...while
bringing a much better rain chance to eastern Kansas. NAM is the
most aggressive...but has trended further east since yesterday.
Canadian and European model (ecmwf) both have a similar trend...although further
east. Not 100% certain the Mitchell County area would be totally
missed by this precipitation area at this point...and have left
about a 15% risk for showers in that area late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday. It does appear an easterly flow will help keep
temperatures down Wednesday...along with some high clouds moving
in from the west. Wednesday is also a day in between the rainy
weather to the east...and our next system upcoming Thursday.

As for Thursday...there is model agreement of a more significant
short wave moving across the Kansas/NE region...mainly during the day
and early evening. Low level moisture might not be high to start
but it does increase...and precipitable water values of 1.5"
suggest a solid column of moisture to tap. Instability is weak
Thursday with middle-level lapse rates in the 5-6 c/km range. Could
be local 1" rain in a few spots...in an otherwise generic
rain/isolated storm precipitation shield. Continued with the 45-60
percent chance of rain...which for 3 days away is pretty high.
With expected rain around Thursday...temperatures will again be
below normal.

After Thursday...southwest flow becomes more prominent and that
will push much warmer middle-level temperatures into the region to
act as a cap on widespread precipitation activity. There is
still some risk for thunderstorms Friday...but the best shot for
rain will lift north/northeast of the region by the weekend...and
temperatures will be on the rise over our area. There may also
small risks for thunderstorms here and there Saturday-Monday...but
coverage will be spotty at best. The main story will be the return
to Summer time temperatures during this period...and likely
lasting deeper into next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z kgri/kear tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1132 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Smoke originating from fires in Canada will reduce visibilities to
a few miles tonight and into Tuesday morning. Otherwise..look for
fairly light winds the next 24 hours under the influence of a
surface high pressure ridge. Clouds are expected to remain at VFR
levels.

&&

Gid watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...adp
long term...Moritz
aviation...Fay

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