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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1137 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 254 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Hard to complain about the January weather pattern in place with
an upper level ridge of high pressure oriented along the High
Plains and a near record warm airmass situated across our region.
So far this afternoon...temperatures have reached well into the 50s and 60s
and readings in the 70s were edging into our SW zones.

The weather pattern will deamplify tonight and Wednesday with a
progressing shortwave trough which will send an associated surface
trough and cold front through our region late tonight and Wednesday.
Cooler air advects south behind the boundary on Wednesday but with
good mixing in the afternoon of the still mild airmass we are still
looking for mild afternoon temperatures in the 60s for most areas. These warm
temperatures will again be at record or near record levels. West to
northwest winds will increase during the afternoon with model forecast
soundings indicating mixing to around 850 mb. Winds at the top of the
layer are around 30kts and breezy conditions are expected from middle day
on. The combination of the warm...dry conditions and the gusty
winds will lead to near critical fire weather conditions. Please
see the fire weather section for further information.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 254 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Moisture moves into the area and brings some clouds to the northeast
Wednesday night. A cool surface high pressure settles into the area
on Thursday and skies start to clear out...but it also brings much
cooler temperatures with highs only in the 40s. The surface high
moves east Thursday night. There is a little weak warm advection but
do not expect it to warm up much since there is fairly cool air
aloft. On Friday the winds turn towards the south and bring in
additional low level moisture.

By Friday night there is an upper level low in the southwest Continental U.S.
And the first upper wave moves into the plains. With the moisture
return from the south during the day...there is a chance for some
precipitation. The upper low moves out of the southwest and into the
Southern Plains Saturday and Saturday night. The precipitation is
expected to continue across the area during this time. Will keep the
snow at night with the temperatures below freezing...but during the
day on Saturday the temperatures could be warm enough to be a rain
snow mix or even change to rain in the far south. There is still a
few discrepancies in the models in the timing and how far south the
upper level low moves. The further south it is the less chance we
have for snow.

By Sunday the main upper level trough will be through the forecast
area and expect the snow to be over by Sunday morning. Sunday into
Tuesday there is northwest flow across the area. A cold high
pressure system settles into the area Sunday and continues into
Monday morning before moving to the east. By Monday night there is a
little warm advection and on Tuesday the temperatures warm back to
around normal.


Aviation...(for the 06z kgri/kear tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1130 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Quiet weather with VFR conditions currently forecast for this taf
period...with the primary concern lying with winds. A weaker
surface pattern currently in place looks to keep srly winds on the
lighter side tonight...before becoming more wrly near sunrise as a
cold front approaches from the west. This front starts working
its way through the area during the morning hours. Expecting the
front and accompanying gustier northwest winds to make their way through
the terminal areas during the middle morning hours...with speeds then
increasing into the 20 to 25 miles per hour range with higher gusts...which
are expected to continue through the duration of this taf period.


Fire weather...
issued at 254 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Warm...dry and breezy conditions on Wednesday still look
favorable for near fire critical fire weather conditions across
portions of north central Kansas generally west of Highway 281.
Afternoon temperatures are forecast to rise to the middle and
upper 60s...and wind speeds will be on the increase from the west
northwest in the afternoon following the passage of a surface
trough. Model forecast soundings indicate mixing to 850 mb during the
afternoon with winds at the top of the layer around 30kts. Winds
and fuels will be favorable for critical conditions however low
relative humidity values are more marginal...generally around 25
percent. Model soundings are very dry however surface dps are expected
to be in the low 30th percentile which keep low relative humidity
values from dropping to or below 20 percent. This will need to be
monitored but have kept near critical conditions in the severe weather potential statement at this time.


issued at 331 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Listed below are the record highs vs the current forecast for Wednesday.

Wednesday 1/28 gri: 63 in 1986. Fcst: 63 hsi: 69 in 1931. Fcst: 64


Gid watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Fay
fire weather...Fay

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