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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

No significant changes needed to the forecast this afternoon. It's
a beautiful day to be outside.

We are contemplating issuance of a Fire Weather Watch and/or a red flag
warning for tomorrow afternoon. So expect more on this later
pending collaboration with Storm Prediction Center and neighboring offices.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 439 am CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

The main issues revolve around high temperatures today and chance of
precipitation tonight.

The forecast seems straight-forward. A shortwave ridge will move
across the area today...with a low-amplitude trough following
tonight. But...temperatures today will be tough and there could be a
tight temperatures gradient from west southwest to east northeast as
a warm front struggles to make its way through the County Warning Area today. We
could be getting close to 80 in our southwest...and struggling to
get out of the 50s in the east/northeastern County Warning Area. Tough call for
temperatures...but went with the bias-corrected nmm for highs today.
Lows tonight could also be tricky as a cold front makes its way into
the County Warning Area during the overnight...and may not completely clear the County Warning Area
before 12z Sunday arrives. Generally went on the warm side of
guidance. There could be some light showers/sprinkles overnight
tonight with the cold front...with better chances in the
east/northeast with better lift there. Overall...any precipitation
amounts are expected to be meager...and all numerical models point
to this.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 439 am CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Sunday morning an upper level wave moves to the east of the forecast
area. During the morning the winds at 850mb are 50 kts but diminish
during the day to around 20 kts by evening. At the surface a high
pressure system moves into the area during the day. Temperatures are
expected to be in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds from the
northwest will be strongest in the morning and should diminish at
least a little during the afternoon. Relative humidity during the
afternoon diminishes to around 20 percent. Winds during the early
afternoon should be around 20 miles per hour. Will keep the near critical fire
weather in the severe weather potential statement.

Sunday night the surface high moves to the southeast of the area and
warm advection starts up. Temperatures are expected to be warmer on
Monday. The warm advection continues Monday night and the lows will
be warmer than normal. Tuesday an upper level ridge starts to affect
the area with south winds and some weak warm advection. The
temperatures will be warmer still.

A surface low develops on the High Plains Tuesday night...moving
into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. An upper level wave
moves through the area on Wednesday as well. This will bring a
chance for thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
behind the front. Most of the area will have thunderstorms during
the day Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night in the
southeast. They should be mostly during the evening...but could
continue in the far southeast overnight.

Thursday and Friday there is northwest flow and a couple of upper
level waves move through the area which bring a chance for some
showers. Temperatures will be cooler...but still above normal.


Aviation...(for the 18z kgri/kear tafs through 18z sun afternoon)
issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

This afternoon: VFR sky clear. Southeast winds around 10 kts. Confidence: high

Tonight: cold frontal passage 08z-09z. VFR with a period of
multi-layered clouds at or above 8k feet. Southeast winds will increase and
become gusty...but low level wind shear will be an issue prior to frontal passage
with a 50-60 knots low-level wind maximum. Then winds shift to northwest and
diminish. Can't rule out a few VFR sprinkles with the front.
Confidence: medium

Sun through 18z: VFR clearing with possibly a few stratocu developing
for a brief time around 4k feet. Becoming windy with northwest winds
gusting 35-40 kts. Confidence: high


Gid watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...heinlein

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