Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
241 am MST sun Dec 8 2013
Short term...for northeast Montana...today through Tuesday...
will see several shortwaves on northwest flow the next few days.
Low clouds coming off of Fort Peck Lake has created patchy fog
over the Glasgow area early this morning. This fog will dissipate
by noon as somewhat warmer temperatures and west winds develop.
Arctic high continues to bring bitter cold temperatures and
dangerously cold wind chills early this morning. This high will
move to the east this morning as a shortwave trough drops south
from Saskatchewan. This wave will bring a frontal system through
the area today with somewhat warmer (not as cold) temperatures but
northwest winds 10 to 20 miles per hour will develop by afternoon keeping wind
chills in advisory criteria through tonight. When wind chill
warning expires at 10 am... will have Wind Chill Advisory in
effect through tonight. Limited moisture with this wave. Will
mention a slight chance of snow. May see drifting snow in some
areas but wind speed should not be high enough for blowing snow.
Also...areas north of the Missouri River and east of Glasgow has
less than 3 inches of snow cover which will limit the chances of
The area will between system tonight with dry weather. Then...
another shortwave moves south out of Saskatchewan on Monday with
more moisture which will bring a better chance of snow and
somewhat warmer temperatures. The northwest winds will increase to
around 20 miles per hour which will bring a better chance of blowing snow.
Will mention areas of blowing snow for now. Temperatures will be
warm enough on Monday that wind chills will rise above advisory
criteria during the morning even with the stronger winds.
Another wave will drop south from Saskatchewan on Tuesday with
another chance of snow. Winds will be lighter as high pressure
system builds into the area during the afternoon. Forrester
Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday...
Synoptic set up...coldest air of the northern hemisphere lies
over eastern Canada dipping down into the northern US plains and
upper Mississippi Valley. Across the Canadian and US rockies and
High Plains including northeast Montana exists northwest flow
aloft. Farther west... a ridge runs north from off the coast of
California into the Gulf of Alaska.
Tuesday night through Thursday... last main burst of super cold
air will exit to the east after Tuesday night. 850 mb temperatures
will rise into the single digits celsius. This will allow
temperatures to rise above zero but not quite break freezing
Thursday night through Friday night... backdoor cold front will
waffle across the region allowing for limited negative temperatures
along the far northeastern sections of th County Warning Area. Some weak
overrunning effects from a shortwave could generate light snow
showers along this boundary.
Friday night Onward... models become more unsettled at this point.
There is some indication that a weak ridge may be possible
Saturday and Saturday night which could bring some warmer
temperatures with maybe a few areas reaching above freezing. A low
pressure system would follow right behind this system into the late
weekend that would be capable of snow. However the low and snow
still looks to be to far north to impact the County Warning Area. Gah
flight category: VFR
Cold: temperatures are expected to stay below zero through Monday
morning with twenty minus likely for some lows. This could cause
mechanical problems for operational limits on some aircraft.
Area winds: light with a slight southern component through
sunup... then veering to the northwest around 10 to 20 kts during
wind chill warning until 10 am MST this morning for central and
southeast Phillips...central and southern valley...Daniels...
Wind Chill Advisory until 11 am MST Monday for prairie...Wibaux.
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am MST this morning for Petroleum...
Wind Chill Advisory from 10 am this morning to 11 am MST Monday
for central and southeast Phillips...central and southern
McCone...northern Phillips...northern valley...Richland...