Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
741 PM MDT sun Oct 19 2014
Short term...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tuesday...
going forecast looks fine this evening with no changes expected.
High pressure ridge in place aloft will make for clear skies and
dry conditions overnight. Gah
Previous short term discussion...
northeast Montana remains under a long-wave ridge tonight and
Monday. So expect dry and mild conditions to continue with high
temperatures Monday of 10f to 15f above normal.
Monday night and Tuesday begin a transition period when a Gulf of
Alaska low pressure trough sends a shortwave and cold front into
the Pacific northwest. Tuesday will still be under the influence
of the departing ridge...so expect another warm day with similar
temperatures. However clouds will increase and thicken in the
afternoon as the cold front nudges up against the western border
of the County Warning Area by 00z Wednesday. Western areas where clouds move will
run slightly cooler. Scattered
Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday...
going forecast in excellent shape depicting overall mild Fall weather
conditions. Only tweak Worth mentioning was to add some mention of
isolated showers across the east on Wednesday with the exiting
trough overhead. Gilchrist
Previous long term discussion...
upper trough expected to lift from the West Coast...through the
northern rockies and into central Canada through the middle of
next week. The upper ridge then rebounds across the region by the
end of the week.
The shortwave pushes a cold front across Montana Tuesday night with
a few showers possible. Some slight timing differences in the
models but cooler and breezy conditions anticipated for Wednesday
with the upper wave.
While the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be
dry...with a Flat Ridge over the northern plains...trough off the
West Coast and the Pacific jet streaming across the northern rockies.
Most of the moisture streaming through the flow will be left west
of the mountains...but high clouds/Chinook Arch are possible along
with occasional breezy/windy conditions. Main issue is the models
are differing with shortwaves pushing through the flow which will
impact timing of boundary disruptions. Ebert
flight category: VFR
Synopsis: mostly clear skies with a few high clouds are expected
through the period with an upper ridge building over the region.
Winds: light and variable at 6kts or less tonight. Kggw will see an
enhanced southeast wind tonight at around 10kts due to local
terrain effects. South to southeast 5 to 10 knots are expected on
Monday and contining into Monday night.