Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
213 am MDT Sat Oct 10 2015
Short term...for northeast Montana...today through Monday...
..strong to potentially damaging winds expected for most of
northeast Montana Sunday and Sunday evening...
Upper ridge is currently over Montana this morning. The ridge will
bring warm temperatures today with almost all areas seeing 80s for
highs. It may be the last time in 2015 that highs in the 80s
occur. Chinook arching will bring high level clouds at times
The ridge moves to the east tonight and upper trough and cold
front moves inland from the Pacific and into western Montana.
Tonight will be a warm night with warm airmass still over the
The cold front moves east across eastern Montana during the
morning with the upper trough following in the afternoon. Surface
low will deepen as it moves from Alberta to Manitoba during the
day. This will bring a tight surface gradient to northeast Montana
which will result in strong winds. Models have 850 mb winds 50-60
knots in the afternoon. With steep low level laspe rates near
10c/km and good mixing expected...expect most of these winds to
reach the surface and have wind speeds approaching and in some
areas exceeding high wind criteria. Will expand high wind watch
for most of Sunday and Sunday evening to include all of northeast
Montana. There will also be enough moisture and instability for a
slight chance of showers on Sunday.
The system moves to the east Sunday night which will diminish the
winds. High pressure builds into the area on Monday with dry and
cooler weather and lighter winds. Forrester
Long term...Monday night through Saturday...
Synoptic set up... hot high pressure resides over California and
the Desert Southwest. The influence of this warm airmass spreads
eastward into the intermountain west and High Plains from
Colorado to Montana. Zonal flow runs along the international
border from British Columbia to Montana then becomes northwest. A
large Arctic trough resides over Nunavut and is partially dipping
into the Great Lakes.
Monday night through Thursday night... a reinforcing shot of cold
air is expected to fill into the already cold airmass to the
northeast. This will transition the flow to northwest and
slightly cool off the County Warning Area through the end of these periods. With
no definitive cold front or moisture source... conditions should
remain dry through these periods.
Friday Onward... large area of cold air across the western half
of Canada will further move east allowing the ridge across the
west to expand north into British Columbia and increase in
influence over northeast Montana. Expect temperatures to begin
warming during these periods. Gah
flight category: VFR.
Synopsis: a passing ridge will continue to keep things dry
through the cycle.
Wind: out of the west at or under 10 to 15 kts... gaining a
southern component overnight
high wind watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
central and southeast Phillips...central and southern valley...
northern Phillips...northern valley...Petroleum...prairie...
High wind watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for