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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
209 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Short term...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thursday...
quiet weather will continue across the area as only a weak cold
front will be watched.

Pacific moisture is beginning to stream into the area in the form
of high clouds. A Chinook Arch should enhance it over northern
Montana tonight and skies will gradually become cloudy by
Wednesday. The cold front will move through about midday with a
west or northwest wind that increases. It looks like the
atmosphere mixes down from about 700 mb and speeds look to be
sufficient for a lake Wind Advisory on Fort Peck Lake...however a
thick high clouds may limit mixing. Will let the night shift get
another look at this and make the call.

The upper flow then turns northwest as the disturbance passes to our east
and an upper ridge builds over the Pacific northwest. This ridge will
build east and will help to push a warmer air mass into the area
late this week. Tfj

Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday...

Kept the extended forecast dry and trended silent probability of precipitation toward the
latest model consensus. It is a stretch...but the best chance for
any precipitation and gusty winds will be with a quick passing
disturbance on Sunday. Not yet confident enough to raise probability of precipitation even
to slight chance. Expect very comfortable...slightly above average
temperatures. Bmickelson

Previous long term discussion...the latest 00z model guidance
continues to support mainly dry and warm conditions for this
weekend with the region under the influence of a strong upper
ridge. In fact...high temperatures in the 70s to near 80 will be
well above average for this time of year.

The ridge is expected to flatten early next week with a slight
cool down as a cold front pushes through...but precipitation
chances should remain fairly limited. Will have a slight chance
Monday night for now...but future shifts may have to have a look
at refining the timing of shower activity. Maliawco



VFR conditions will prevail for all taf sites throughout most or
all of the taf period. Models are indicating that brief small
amounts of concentrated/localized surface humidity may form some
low stratus and IFR ceilings during the early morning
hours...especially for kgdv between 3 am and 10 am. Not yet
confident enough to include it in the tafs. Tried to indicate this
possibility with a few or scattered mention. Expect light easterly winds
this afternoon through Wednesday morning before a cool front
brings gusty northwest winds up to 30 miles per hour to the region. Bmickelson


Glasgow watches/warnings/advisories...none.




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