Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow Montana
348 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
Short term...for northeast Montana...today through Saturday...
wave punching into northeast Montana triggering a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms across the eastern zones. Timing of the
line suggest storms should move into North Dakota by 6am MDT.
Upper low expected to lift from the Pacific northwest into
southern Alberta today...then rotate into Manitoba by Saturday.
This low will push a cold front across eastern Montana later this
morning with winds switching to the northwest and increasing
enough to continue the lake Wind Advisory. Drier air pushes in
behind the front prompting a red flag warning for the southwest.
With unstable moist airmass ahead of the front additional strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon.
Friday and Saturday will feature cooler but dry conditions as the
upper low moves across the Canadian prairies. Deep strong westerly
winds to the south of the low will maintain windy conditions
across Montana into the weekend. Ebert
Long term...Saturday night through Thursday...
the long term begins with the upper low exiting the region and
skirting the international border off to our east...with a
building upper level ridge moving in behind. This upper ridge will
be the focus for the duration of the long term as somewhat weak
upper flow and the absence of an onshore progressing trough should
keep the ridge over the region. As of current model runs...a slow
warm up will progress through the week. Temperatures should remain
in the middle to upper 80s for most of the County Warning Area...with some 90s
popping in as well.
In terms of precipitation...went with a dry solution as most models arent
putting out much in terms of quantitative precipitation forecast. There may be a chance for an
embedded shortwave to run through the upper flow and bring chances for
probability of precipitation...but its likely to be fast moving and dry. Trying to
pinpoint shortwave driven precipitation in the long term is difficult
at this time with both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS not showing any similarities with
quantitative precipitation forecast placement. Again with weak upper flow and the upper ridge
dominating the overall pattern...dry and warming conditions will
be the most likely solution through next week. Barnwell
VFR conditions will prevail for all taf sites throughout this taf
cycle. The exception may be brief periods of reduced visibilities
in thunderstorms if they happen to move directly over a taf site.
Gusty shifting winds may also accompany any storms. Easterly winds
at 10 to 20 knots early in the taf period will become
northwesterly at 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the afternoon.
a strong low pressure system will move into the area and bring a
cold front through the region this morning. Humidity will drop
into the upper teens behind the front this afternoon as strong
northwest winds develop resulting in red flag conditions across
and south of the cmr. Overnight thunderstorms with localized
wetting rains and expected humidity in the 20s will limit fire
weather concerns elsewhere today. Cooler but windy and dry
conditions are also expected across the region on Friday.
red flag warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for
Lake Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Fort Peck Lake
for central and southeast Phillips...central and southern