Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
311 am CDT sun Jul 5 2015

a split flow pattern is currently in place across the
Continental U.S....with the southern branch consisting of an upper trough
across the southeast states and a ridge over West Texas. High
clouds can be seen on satellite streaming southeast across North
Texas within the resulting northwest flow pattern aloft. An
active belt of convection has occurred over the past few days as a
result of disturbances in the flow aloft...but most of this has
remained east of the forecast area where the influence of the
West-Texas ridge has been weakest. The exception has been over the
northeastern counties...where slow moving thunderstorms dumped
some good rain amounts yesterday. That said...the trough will
shift even farther east today which will likely lessen precipitation
chances even more. We will keep slight chance probability of precipitation for the far
eastern counties where isolated storms will be possible this
afternoon. For Monday...the ridge expands far enough east to
essentially shut off precipitation chances area-wide.

Monday night into Tuesday...the ridge will weaken as a northern
branch trough swings across the northern plains and upper Midwest.
This will send a front south into Oklahoma and northwest Texas on
Tuesday. Thunderstorms will develop along this boundary as some of
the energy from the trough passes across the Southern Plains. This
activity will likely push far enough south to affect the northern
half of North Texas. Rain chances will begin Monday night and
continue into Tuesday night....with the best chances across
the northwestern-most locations. There is a chance that a couple
of our counties near the Red River may experience training
thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. This will depend on how far
south the front or other mesoscale boundaries make they
would provide focus for repeated development. For now...we feel
that the highest threat for heavy rain would remain north of the
area...because both the upper level pattern and time of year are
not conducive for a farther southward push of the cold front.
Either way...precipitation chances will taper off the farther south you
go with little chance for rain expected as you get south of the
I-20 corridor.

Upper level ridging will strengthen overhead middle to late
week...bringing seasonably hot and mainly rain-free conditions
Wednesday through the end of the week. The GFS deepens a trough
across the central part of the country next Monday and
Tuesday...which could weaken our ridge enough to bring rain
chances back in the picture just beyond this forecast period.



/issued 1127 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue through 12z northeast of a kadm /Ardmore Oklahoma/
to kf44 /Athens Texas/ line. This activity will remain east of the
metroplex taf sites.

Low clouds that were just starting to develop across south Texas
as of 04z...are expected to spread north into the Waco region by
11z and maybe into the metroplex around 13z. Thus have placed
bkn015 in the Waco taf for the 11-16z period and a tempo bkn025 in
the metroplex tafs for the 13-16z period. Otherwise...VFR
conditions are expected with south winds 10 to 15 knots with some
gusts over 20 knots after 16z Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected Sunday afternoon east of the I-35 corridor.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 94 77 93 77 91 / 10 5 5 10 20
Waco, Texas 93 76 93 76 92 / 10 5 5 5 10
Paris, Texas 90 74 90 75 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
Denton, Texas 93 76 92 76 89 / 10 5 5 20 30
McKinney, Texas 92 75 91 76 89 / 10 5 5 10 20
Dallas, Texas 94 77 93 77 91 / 10 5 5 10 20
Terrell, Texas 92 75 92 76 90 / 10 5 5 5 10
Corsicana, Texas 92 76 92 76 91 / 10 5 5 5 10
Temple, Texas 92 75 92 76 91 / 10 5 5 5 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 93 74 92 75 90 / 10 5 5 20 30


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations