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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
618 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Aviation...
/12z tafs/

No concerns as convection over SW OK/northwest Texas continues weakening. We
expect VFR with scattered-broken middle-high clouds over dfw and scattered high
clouds over Waco. S flow around 5 kts will become southeast 5-10 kts
after midday...becoming southerly overnight and Tuesday morning.

05/

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 205 am CDT Monday Aug 3 2015/
morning satellite/radar imagery looks similar to previous mornings
with some cloud cover spreading into North Texas from convection
off to the northwest...mainly over the Panhandle. This will likely
be the case for the next couple of mornings as an upper ridge
remains centered to the west of North Texas. Rain chances will
remain very low across the region through the week into next
weekend.

For today...some high cloud cover will likely affect the area
through the morning hours and some isolated showers will be around
mainly to the northwest. Will have some 10 probability of precipitation in for this
morning out west...but overall think most areas wont see any
precipitation. The upper ridge will eventually build back over the
region by the end of the week...but until then northwest flow will
prevail aloft and may allow for a few weak disturbances to clip
the area through middle week. Tuesday afternoon and again on
Wednesday afternoon...there will be some very low chances for
thunderstorms mainly along the Red River. As we head into Friday
and next weekend...the center of the ridge will be over North
Texas with continued hot temperatures and little to no chance for
rainfall.

Temperatures...highs will be near 100 degrees today and tomorrow
but dewpoints will slowly creep upward. They should still mix out
into the 50s by this afternoon keeping heat indices in the 99 to
102 degree range. By Wednesday and Thursday...dewpoints will
likely be in the middle 60s with temperatures near 101 to 103
degrees. This would likely push heat indices above 105 degrees and
may require a heat advisory by middle week.

Dunn

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 100 79 100 80 100 / 0 0 5 5 10
Waco, Texas 99 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 5 5 5
Paris, Texas 98 73 98 76 99 / 0 0 10 10 10
Denton, Texas 99 75 101 79 100 / 5 5 10 10 10
McKinney, Texas 99 75 99 76 99 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dallas, Texas 100 79 100 79 100 / 0 0 5 5 10
Terrell, Texas 99 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 5 5 10
Corsicana, Texas 99 77 99 76 99 / 0 0 5 5 5
Temple, Texas 99 74 99 74 100 / 0 0 5 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 98 74 100 74 102 / 5 5 10 5 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

05/91

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