Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
637 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Aviation...
/00z tafs/
Main line of thunderstorms has moved east of all the taf sites.
There is still some shower and thunderstorm development behind
the leading line of storms but this activity should also remain
east of the airports. MVFR and IFR clouds are beginning to clear
from west to east. Kafw...kftw...kgky and kact are already VFR.
Kdfw and kdal will keep MVFR ceilings through 01-02z.
The cold front has now passed through all the taf sites with north
to northwest winds prevailing around 10 kts with slightly higher
gusts. Winds will become light overnight. With the light winds and
rich ground moisture...fog is likely to develop overnight. Much of
the fog could be ground fog. For now...will prevail 2-3 sm
beginning at 10z at the taf sites...but it is possible that some
locations could see visibilities between 1-2 sm. As the fog begins
to lift after sunrise...could also see very low clouds temporarily
develop. Any fog restrictions should improve by 14-15z. For the
remainder of tomorrow...winds will come around the southeast and
VFR will prevail.
82/jld
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/
we will be dropping counties along and northwest of a Sherman to
Weatherford...Glen Rose and Goldthwaite line from the Tornado Watch with
the release of the afternoon forecast package.
The cold front will continue to push southeast at nearly 30 miles per hour
at middle afternoon and it should clear the far southeastern counties
early this evening...around 7pm. The convection has mostly been a
straight line wind producer with many sites reporting gusts 50-70
miles per hour. Denton ASOS reported a gust to 73 miles per hour at 138 PM. We will
continue to ride with a Tornado Watch for the remainder of the County Warning Area
late this afternoon since a discrete cell or two could develop
ahead of the cold front.
Cooler temperatures and northwest winds will spread over most of
the County Warning Area behind the cold front this evening. Expecting the coolest
overnight lows...middle 50s to lower 60s...over the northwest one
half in the morning where skies should clear tonight.
A longwave ridge will build over The Rockies on Wednesday with
northwest flow aloft over the region through Thursday. Weak
impulses in this upper flow could result in elevated showers or
thunderstorms Wednesday night and again on Thursday night. The
Thursday night system may develop into an mesoscale convective system over the Texas Panhandle
and some of this activity may spread over the County Warning Area on Friday as a
backdoor cold front slides into the northeast counties.
The upcoming Memorial Day weekend is looking dry and seasonably
warm...but many times in the past this weekend has turned out to
be a stormy one. For now will keep Sat-Monday dry with highs in the
upper 90s to middle 90s and lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
75
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 60 88 67 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
Waco, Texas 62 89 67 92 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
Paris, Texas 61 84 61 86 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
Denton, Texas 59 86 63 88 68 / 20 10 20 10 10
McKinney, Texas 59 87 63 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
Dallas, Texas 60 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
Terrell, Texas 61 87 64 91 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 62 89 67 92 70 / 30 10 10 10 10
Temple, Texas 63 89 67 92 69 / 30 20 10 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 60 89 64 91 69 / 20 10 20 10 20
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
82/58
