Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
307 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
..another bout of winter weather Wednesday afternoon through
Temperatures today did not warm as much as we thought and the
dense fog persisted somewhat longer. Still have a few locations
with visibility below one mile...but weak showers and drizzle
should help improve them a little before evening. But do not
expect temperatures to cool much overnight and will keep areas of
fog most of the night.
The cold front was just moving into the Texas Panhandle and
northern Oklahoma at 2 PM. Temperatures were in the teens and 20s
behind the front over Kansas. We expect the front to cross the
Red River just after midnight...into the I-20/30 corridor around
daybreak and through the far southeast counties 4-5 PM. It will
turn noticeably colder and windy behind the front. May need a Wind
Advisory for Wednesday night if MOS guidance numbers are right.
The freezing line will lag many hours behind the front...thus a
precipitation transitioning to a wintry mix may not take take
place in the northwest until middle afternoon and across the dfw
metroplex until 5 PM. Although this is our best guess on the
transition...an hour or two earlier would result in more serious
travel impacts for the afternoon commute. We have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory in three segments. One for the earlier northwest
timing...one for the central areas including the metroplex to
cover the late afternoon commuter impact potential and one in the
southeast where the transition occurs later Wednesday night.
Currently...we feel sleet amounts up to 1/2 inch and freezing rain
amounts up to 1/10 inch are the most logical for this event.
Nearly all of the models have come into better agreement on
timing...transition and amounts of precipitation. The hi-res
models are also indicating a potential for convective elements
moving over the Post-frontal cold air Wednesday evening. Sleet
showers would result in roads becoming covered in a shorter period
of time. Other factors aiding this event are: strong frontogenetic
forcing...significant lift associated with the right-rear entrance
region of the 250 mb jet aloft and a piece of shortwave energy
moving over the County Warning Area.
We will be watching new data as it arrives to re-evaluate the
potential of this system as a few minor deviations here and there
could cause significant changes to later forecasts.
The precipitation will shift to the southeast counties on
Thursday morning and should end before midday. Wind chills will be
in the middle teens to lower 20s daybreak Thursday. Highs on
Thursday will be in the middle to upper 30s with around 40 from
Cameron to Centerville. Expect sunshine to return to the entire
County Warning Area by Thursday afternoon!
an upper level split-pattern will be developing by late week with
a short wave trough arriving from the west on Saturday. Temperatures
will slowly moderate through the period...and there could be some
light showers over the southeast counties on Saturday. Highs will
start out in the middle 40s on Friday and warm into the 60s for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the 20s on Friday morning...in
the upper 20s and 30s on Saturday then warming into the 40s by Tuesday
/issued 1232 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015/
IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility will continue at all North
Texas taf sites through tonight as low level warm air advection
increases ahead of an approaching low pressure system and Arctic
front. Occasional light rain showers will continue through the
afternoon with better rain chances arriving overnight. The Arctic
cold front should arrive at the metroplex taf sites around 13z and
between 15 and 16z in Waco. The wind will turn to the north with
the passage of the front with wind speeds increasing between 15
and 20 knots along with some gusts to around 30 knots...
especially a few hours after frontal passage. The strong and gusty winds
will prevail through the afternoon along with IFR ceilings/visibilities.
The extended portion of the dfw taf should see a transition to
freezing rain/possibly mixed with sleet beginning around 20z as
surface temperatures cool to freezing or below. 79
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 47 47 26 39 24 / 60 90 60 10 5
Waco, Texas 56 61 30 39 24 / 40 90 70 20 5
Paris, Texas 49 50 25 39 23 / 90 100 60 10 5
Denton, Texas 44 44 24 39 23 / 70 90 50 10 5
McKinney, Texas 45 47 25 39 24 / 70 90 60 10 5
Dallas, Texas 48 48 26 40 25 / 70 90 60 10 5
Terrell, Texas 51 52 27 40 23 / 70 90 70 20 5
Corsicana, Texas 53 60 31 39 25 / 60 90 70 20 5
Temple, Texas 60 64 30 39 25 / 40 80 70 30 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 44 46 24 38 22 / 60 80 40 10 5
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to noon
CST Thursday for txz135-146>148-156>162-174-175.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to noon CST Thursday