Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
642 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015
Generally VFR conditions prevail across North Texas this evening
outside of scattered severe convection. The strongest storm is
located southwest of Fort Worth with additional thunderstorms
south of Dallas. This activity should remain more scattered than
yesterday but close enough to impact major airports in the
metroplex. Will carry a thunderstorms in the vicinity at ftw/gky/afw for a couple of hours
this evening and will amend if they get closer.
Otherwise...outside of the convective activity...MVFR ceilings should
spread north late tonight into tomorrow morning.
Thursday should remain generally convection free for most of the
day outside of some additional scattered thunderstorms by late
evening. There is a chance of another convective complex moving
through the region late tomorrow night. For now...will introduce a
thunderstorms in the vicinity late in the dfw taf to account for this.
Previous discussion... /issued 323 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015/
north and central Texas will continue to be in an unsettled
weather pattern through the weekend...with rain chances in the
forecast through Monday morning. Temperatures will be at or
slightly below seasonal normals through the period as well.
The southerly flow has quickly increased low level moisture
across the region today after the area was left scoured out behind
the convection that pushed through last night. Temperatures have
climbed into the 80s this afternoon as well. As a result...cape
values have soared above 2000 j/kg across areas southwest of a
Bowie to Sulphur Springs line. However...the cap still remains in
tact across much of the area...so storms have struggled to
develop. A few showers/storms have tried to develop this afternoon
across North Texas but most have struggled to get going. There is
still a chance a few storms may become severe...with large hail
and damaging winds being the primary hazards. However...expect
coverage and strength to diminish after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating because upper level support is not very strong
right now. Storm motion would likely be slow as well...so
localized flash flooding would be possible.
Water vapor imagery depicts an embedded shortwave currently over
Baja California California...and model guidance suggests this feature will
ride along the large scale upper level trough and make it into
Texas late tomorrow. This upper level feature will provide large
scale lift across North Texas Thursday evening into Friday.
Because the soils...rivers/creeks..and lakes are nearly all
saturated across north and central Texas...it would only take an
inch or so of rainfall to cause additional flooding problems. High
res model guidance is not in solid agreement regarding the
timing...strength and/or coverage of storms on Thursday night
into Friday...so will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for this
forecast package. However...a watch may be necessary in the near
future for parts of the area as new guidance comes in.
The broad large scale trough that continues to turn over the
western Continental U.S. Is prognosticated to push eastward early this weekend. As
it traverses the plains...a weak cold front is expected to push
through the Southern Plains and into North Texas by Saturday.
This source of lift will keep rain chances in the forecast through
For the early part of next week...long range model guidance still
suggests ridging to occur to our west. This pattern shift would
suppress rain chances for our area for the early part of next
week. However...it may put US in northwest flow aloft...and if
thunderstorm complexes develop late in the day over the High
Plains/foothills of The Rockies in such a pattern...it could
bring early morning convection to North Texas. At this time...will
keep a sunny disposition and side with the guidance indicating the
ridge will build into North Texas and leave US with subsidence.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 67 85 70 84 69 / 40 40 50 50 40
Waco, Texas 71 86 71 85 68 / 40 40 40 50 30
Paris, Texas 68 82 70 82 68 / 30 40 50 60 50
Denton, Texas 68 84 70 82 68 / 30 40 60 50 50
McKinney, Texas 70 84 69 83 68 / 30 40 50 50 50
Dallas, Texas 70 85 71 84 70 / 40 40 50 50 40
Terrell, Texas 72 84 71 85 69 / 40 40 40 50 40
Corsicana, Texas 72 84 71 85 69 / 40 40 40 50 30
Temple, Texas 69 87 71 86 68 / 40 40 40 40 30
Mineral Wells, Texas 69 83 68 83 67 / 40 40 60 50 40