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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1130 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014

VFR conditions area-wide will become briefly interrupted by a
period of MVFR during the Tuesday morning hours as stratus spreads
northward in the southerly low level flow. We have now included
MVFR ceilings indescriminantly based on the most recent model
data...with onset at 08z in kact and 11-12z in the metroplex. Ceilings
should scatter out in the 15-17z timeframe...otherwise persistent
south to southeast winds can be expected.



Previous discussion... /issued 325 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014/
a cold front has dropped into the Texas Panhandle and northwestern
Oklahoma this afternoon...but will stall before making much more
southward progress. Convection should develop along the boundary
this evening...and steering flow is favorable for this activity to
move southeastward. However the airmass over North Texas features
strong cin which will inhibit any surface based convection. There
may be a tiny bit of moisture/instability aloft over the northern
and northeastern zones by morning for a few elevated showers...but
expect the majority of any overnight/morning convection to remain
in Oklahoma. Have upped probability of precipitation to 10 percent in this area but will
keep the worded forecast dry. Otherwise...a quiet and seasonably
mild night is expected again over the region. Southerly winds will
transport moisture/stratus northward...which will impact roughly
the same locations as this morning/S stratus intrusion.

Meanwhile a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche appears to
be getting better organized. While the tropical low center will
likely remain on a west/northwest track into central Mexico near
Tampico...the tropical wave axis extends into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. The tropical wave axis will move across the Texas
coastline tomorrow which will result in increasing moisture into
the County Warning Area. Precipitable water should rise to around 2 inches across
the southeast zones by late afternoon and the airmass will contain
ample uncapped instability. However due to limited lift...will
keep probability of precipitation at 20 percent over the eastern and southeastern zones.
Otherwise dry and hot weather will be the rule...with highs again
reaching the middle to upper 90s over the central and western zones.
Some of the tropical moisture will remain across the southern
zones Wednesday where a slight chance of afternoon showers/storms
will be possible. The upper high over the region will keep the
remainder of the region just hot and dry. This high will also keep
the remnant tropical disturbance/cyclone well south of the region
with most of the tropical moisture being forced into and rung out
over the mountains of central Mexico.

The upper level high will remain over the region through the
weekend but will weaken a bit by Thursday and Friday. This should
allow high temperatures to cool a degree or two by Friday...but still
they will be above normal. A weak cold front will move into the
area from the north on Saturday. Since the upper high will still
be in place over the region...this front will have little dynamic
support for a southward push of cooler air...and therefore only a
very slight cool down is expected which will put temperatures
right around normal Sunday and Monday. Upper level lift will also
be limited for any good chances of rain...but there will be enough
moisture along the frontal boundary for a slight chance of
showers/storms from Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 79 97 78 97 77 / 0 5 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 78 98 76 97 74 / 5 10 10 10 5
Paris, Texas 74 93 74 94 73 / 5 10 10 5 5
Denton, Texas 78 96 75 96 75 / 0 10 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 77 95 76 95 75 / 0 10 10 5 5
Dallas, Texas 79 97 78 97 78 / 0 10 10 5 5
Terrell, Texas 77 96 76 95 75 / 0 10 10 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 76 95 76 96 74 / 5 20 20 10 5
Temple, Texas 76 97 75 96 74 / 5 20 20 20 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 75 98 74 98 72 / 0 5 5 5 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...



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