Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
339 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015
an unusually strong upper level low will track right across north
central Texas during the day and bring another chance of rain and
unseasonably cool temperatures. In fact...forecast high
temperatures at both dfw and Waco are in record territory for
lowest maximum temperature today. The record at dfw is 61 in 1932 and
the record at Waco will be easily broken since it is 69 in 1916.
Weak lift from the upper level low and continued saturation aloft
will result in a west to east band of rain/showers that tracks
across the central County Warning Area this morning. Highest probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast of up to
0.20 inch will be centered along a line from Comanche to Hillsboro
to Athens. Instability looks too low for any thunderstorms today.
Additional light rain showers may develop on the backside of the
upper low this afternoon...but isentropic downglide and drying
aloft means coverage should be 20 percent or less except for the
far eastern zones. Cloudy skies and north winds will prevail
through late afternoon...and ensure what will be our coolest
daytime period for about another 5 months. Yes...I am calling it.
Clearing skies will occur this evening...but continued light
northerly winds will keep radiational cooling shy of optional
levels. Still...temperatures will drop into the middle to upper 40s for
most of the County Warning Area tonight. In case you are wondering...record lows
in late April are still generally in the low 40s for dfw/Waco.
Ridging aloft will prevail for several days from Wednesday into
next weekend and will ensure pretty spectacular weather for this
time of year. Skies will be generally clear with low dewpoints and
light winds. High temperatures will be in the 70s Wednesday
through Friday with lows in the 40s and 50s. South winds do return
by Friday and gradually increasing moisture and temperatures will
occur over the weekend. High temperatures will stay near normal...around
80 degrees...but low temperatures will creep up above normal in the low
to middle 60s as dewpoints climb. Morning clouds and high humidity
will be back by Monday.
The next upper level system will arrive into the southwest U.S.
Early next week which should bring a chance of rain and perhaps a
weak cold front here by Monday night or Tuesday. The better
chances of rain will likely hold off until the middle of next week
when this system ejects out into the plains.
/issued 1202 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015/
an upper level low over West Texas will move east across North
Texas Tuesday and into Louisiana Tuesday night. Expect scattered
showers to move across the region as the upper level low moves
east. Ceilings in the metroplex have been going in and out during
the evening...but expect mainly MVFR ceilings to prevail overnight
with some IFR conditions likely by daybreak. As the upper low
moves into Louisiana...we should see skies clear by middle Wednesday
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 61 49 73 53 76 / 60 5 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 62 47 74 47 78 / 60 5 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 60 46 72 49 76 / 60 5 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 61 46 73 47 76 / 50 5 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 61 46 73 47 77 / 50 5 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 61 50 75 53 78 / 60 5 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 61 48 73 49 79 / 60 5 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 61 48 73 49 79 / 70 5 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 64 47 74 47 79 / 40 5 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 61 45 72 46 77 / 60 5 0 0 0