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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1130 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Aviation...
North Texas continues to lie between a ridge over West Texas and a
trough over East Texas and the northwest Gulf. This pattern will
likely bring about another round of seabreeze showers to the
southeast Wednesday which should dissipate before reaching the taf
sites. The Waco area may be the exception...but probabilities of
convection are too low to mention in the kact taf at this time.

South to southeast winds will continue at all locations through
the forecast period. The NAM and rap13 models are suggesting some
moisture at 925mb surging into the Waco area after sunrise...so we
will continue with a tempo group of MVFR ceilings at kact 13-15z. It
looks like ceilings should mix out before reaching the dfw area.

30

&&




Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/
afternoon satellite and radar imagery shows a cluster of showers
and thunderstorms across southeast Texas associated with an upper
level low and deeper tropical moisture. Most of the lift and
convection associated with this system are on the east side of the
trough axis which is keeping the coverage of showers and storms
mainly to our southeast. There are scattered thunderstorms which
have made it into our far southeast counties and this should be
the general trend for the next few afternoons. For the remainder
of today into this evening...isolated thunderstorms are expected
mainly across the east and southeast. Lightning and gusty winds
should be the main threats.

As we head into the end of the week and weekend...the upper trough
axis will continue to move east. Ridging will extend across Texas
through the middle part of the country with a deep trough over the
western U.S. This will keep the storm track well removed from the
region and North Texas will remain warm and mostly dry. At least
for the next several afternoons...scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across southeast Texas which may
develop far enough inland to affect the southeast counties.
Otherwise...we should remain dry. Medium range guidance really
does not offer much in the way of a pattern change over the next
week...although there may be a front that gets close enough to
North Texas early next week to bring about some slightly better
rain chances.

Dunn




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 75 94 76 95 77 / 5 5 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 72 92 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 10 5
Paris, Texas 70 92 71 94 72 / 10 10 5 5 5
Denton, Texas 72 93 74 95 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 72 92 73 94 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 75 94 77 95 78 / 5 5 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 72 92 72 94 74 / 10 10 5 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 72 92 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 10 5
Temple, Texas 71 92 72 93 73 / 10 20 10 10 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 70 93 71 95 72 / 5 5 5 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

30/69

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