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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1041 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

today will be a warm day with isolated showers and thunderstorms
across the region through the early evening hours. Temperatures
today will be very similar to yesterdays high temperatures. The
12z forward sounding this morning measured a precipitable water of 1.66
inches...indicative of decent moisture across the region.
However...under the influence of easterly flow from the surface to
middle levels of the atmosphere...both the NAM and rap indicate drier
air will move into the region this afternoon from the east. This
trend is supportive by the GOES precipitable water sounder which indicates drier
air is currently to our east. The NAM and rap indicate the driest
air...with precipitable waters closer to 1-1.25 inches...will move across our
southeast counties this afternoon and continue a westward track
this evening and tonight.

While drier air may arrive in our eastern and southeastern
counties later today...the rest of the region will remain moist
and humid. Since the ridge has been weakened...expect isolated
convection to occur today and have expanded the mention of
isolated showers/storms across all of north and central Texas. It
will be more difficult for convection to develop in our southeast
zones when the drier air arrives later but until then there is
still a chance for isolated activity. Gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall will occur with any convection this afternoon.



/issued 603 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
VFR will prevail with just some fair weather cumulus. Light southeast
winds will become easterly by midday with speeds near 10kt. Winds
will diminish and become more southerly tonight.


Previous discussion... /issued 324 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/

A weak TUTT was located just east of Corpus Christi this morning
and has resulted in an increase in precipitable waters and instability across
the region. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible over the
western and southern counties this afternoon and evening.
Upstream...upper trough over the Great Basin will move out of the
central rockies on Thursday night and across the Great Plains by
late Friday night. Short wave forcing for convection will be best
across areas to the north but it will be adequate for scattered
showers/thunderstorms across north and central Texas as the
southern end of the trough moves across the region. We will start
out with low chance probability of precipitation Thursday afternoon/evening...then
increase probability of precipitation west to east on Friday as the upper trough nears.
Although shear will be low on Friday...cape will be adequate for
some strong storms with gusty winds...and locally heavy rainfall
due to precipitable waters near 2 inches. As the upper trough moves into the
Midwest and East Texas over the weekend...we will be trimming probability of precipitation
west to east to match its position. By Sunday...probability of precipitation will be
limited to 20s over the far eastern counties. Dry weather will
settle in for Sunday night through Tuesday.

Temperatures will be responding to slightly lower heights aloft due
to the TUTT and the passage of the upper trough later in the
week. Highs on Thursday will will be a degree or two cooler than
those expected today...and about 5 degrees cooler on Friday due
to additional clouds and scattered convection. Expecting highs to
creep up a few degrees on Sunday with generally middle 90s the first
of next week. Low temperatures will not change much....but fridays
convection could result in some lower 70s out west and along the
Red River on Saturday morning.

Looking ahead...high pressure aloft will be building back over
the region the first week of September with the westerlies
remaining over the northern part of the country. As a
result...there does not seem to be another opportunity for cooler
weather or rain/storms until after the 10th of September. 75


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 98 77 97 78 93 / 10 10 10 20 50
Waco, Texas 99 74 97 76 93 / 10 10 20 10 40
Paris, Texas 94 71 95 73 92 / 10 10 10 20 50
Denton, Texas 96 74 96 76 92 / 10 10 10 20 50
McKinney, Texas 96 72 96 75 92 / 10 10 10 20 50
Dallas, Texas 98 77 97 78 92 / 10 10 10 20 50
Terrell, Texas 97 75 96 75 93 / 10 10 10 20 50
Corsicana, Texas 96 76 97 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 40
Temple, Texas 98 73 96 75 93 / 10 10 20 20 50
Mineral Wells, Texas 99 72 98 74 93 / 10 10 10 20 50


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...




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