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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
546 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Aviation...

VFR conditions are expected for this taf cycle.

North winds will become light and variable across the region
tonight as a ridge builds in from the northwest. Temperatures
have been able to rebound above freezing across all of north and
central Texas this afternoon...which combined with ample sunshine
has helped melt much of the snow and ice. However...clear skies
and calm winds will help any residual moisture left on roadways
and taxiways during the overnight hours refreeze. By middle morning
tomorrow...temperatures should climb above freezing and winds are
expected to be southerly...gradually increasing to around 7 kts
for the remainder of the day.




&&



Previous discussion... /issued 323 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015/

The temperature trends and anticipated impacts on snow cover and
Road conditions across North Texas over the next 24 hours have not
changed...so the late morning update which discusses this in
detail has been appended below this discussion.

Friday...as mentioned below...another full day of sunshine is
expected on Friday...and that combined with temperatures in the
40s is expected to be sufficient to melt sleet and snow
accumulations across the region. Assuming the snow is all
gone...overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning should
remain warmer...with lows falling just below freezing in the upper
20s to low 30s for most locations.

Saturday...an upper level low pressure system currently located
off shore just west of the California/Baja California California coast is
expected to move east towards the Southern Plains on Saturday. As
it approaches...this feature is expected to amplify shortwave
ridging over the Southern Plains. Winds are expected to be
southerly by Saturday afternoon...and the shortwave ridging
should keep US dry across north and central Texas despite moisture
return associated with south winds near the surface and
southwesterly winds aloft. Highs are expected to top out in the
middle 50s for most locations on Saturday...and perhaps more
importantly...once temperatures climb above freezing Saturday
morning...temperatures are expected to remain above freezing for
the foreseeable future.

Sunday...the upper low is expected to move east over the Southern
Plains Sunday afternoon as another shortwave trough digs south
behind it from the northwestern Continental U.S.. the approach of the
shortwave trough will spread large scale forcing for ascent over
the County Warning Area from the southwest to the east during the day on Sunday.
The best overlap of lift and moisture return looks to occur over
the southeastern County Warning Area on Sunday so went ahead with a 50 percent
chance of rain showers at this time. Have probability of precipitation in place for just
about the entire County Warning Area on Sunday due to the expected lift over the
region...but precipitation chances decrease to the northwest with
only a 20 percent chance of rain in place northwest of the dfw
area. Most importantly...there is no cold air on its way into the
region...so whatever rain falls on Sunday will remain in liquid
form with temperatures expected to be in the 40s and 50s.

Monday...lingered some rain chances over locations generally
along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor Sunday night into
Monday as models are struggling to resolve the dynamics and
evolution of the second shortwave trough that dives into the
region from the northwest. This trough will likely move over the
County Warning Area on Monday...however the lift associated with this trough
appears to be weak in nature at this time. Sunday's lead upper low
or upper trough is expected to send a weak Pacific type frontal
boundary across the County Warning Area which will likely advect some drier air
into the region from the north. How extensive this dry air
intrusion is will dictate how much...if any...additional rain
develops over the County Warning Area on Monday. Once again...temperatures are
expected to remain well above freezing...so there is no wintry
precipitation in the forecast.

Remainder of next week...behind the second shortwave trough...the
consensus of guidance is that weak upper level subsidence will
remain over the Southern Plains. This should result in at least a
few days characterized by mostly clear skies and temperatures
warming up into the 60s to lower 70s mid-week. Another upper level
storm system will likely approach the Southern Plains Friday or
into the weekend. Even if this system pans out...there is no
current evidence that suggests we will get cold enough for wintry
precipitation at this time. Showers and thunderstorms would be a
possibility.

Cavanaugh

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 24 49 30 56 40 / 0 0 5 10 10
Waco, Texas 22 50 28 54 40 / 0 0 5 10 20
Paris, Texas 22 48 27 56 35 / 0 0 5 10 10
Denton, Texas 21 49 27 57 38 / 0 0 5 5 10
McKinney, Texas 22 48 28 56 38 / 0 0 5 5 10
Dallas, Texas 25 49 31 57 40 / 0 0 5 10 10
Terrell, Texas 22 49 29 57 39 / 0 0 5 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 24 49 30 57 40 / 0 0 5 10 10
Temple, Texas 23 51 29 54 39 / 0 0 5 10 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 20 50 28 58 37 / 0 0 5 10 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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