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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1146 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Aviation...
/06z tafs/ generally a VFR forecast for North Texas taf sites
through Friday evening...with few changes to previous forecast.
Based on latest short-term model guidance...did decide to include
a brief period of MVFR ceilings in the kact taf from 11-14z...with low
level moisture expected to work into that area during the pre-dawn
hours. Guidance still suggesting some isolated shower or
thunderstorm activity across central Texas Friday afternoon...but
probabilities remain too low to include in 06z tafs.

Bradshaw

&&




Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015/
an upper level trough over southeast Texas continues to weaken
and drift southwest as an upper level ridge over West Texas shifts
slightly eastward into the weekend. Isolated afternoon
showers/thunderstorms are still possible during the afternoon
through Friday southeast of a Temple to Corsicana to Canton line.
Otherwise...expect mostly sunny and seasonably hot days and clear
mild nights through the Labor Day weekend. High temperatures will
increase by a few degrees over the weekend...and a few spots may
reach the 100 degree mark Sunday and Monday. Normal highs for the
first week of September are 90 to 94 degrees.

An upper level low is moving into the Pacific northwest... near
southern vancover island/northwestern Washington this afternoon.
This low will dig south and south southeastward during the next
36 to 48 hours...before moving east and northeast into the
northern plains Sunday. Another short wave will follow in the wake
of the first upper level low and dig a deeper trough across the
west. A series of shortwaves will then move through the trough
early to middle next week....breaking down the upper level ridge.
This will allow a cold front to approach the Red River next
Wednesday night/Thursday. We will see low rain chances across the
northeast Tuesday...and areas along and northwest of a
Goldthwaite... Hillsboro...Emory line Wednesday.

58




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 77 95 77 97 79 / 5 5 5 10 5
Waco, Texas 74 95 75 97 76 / 10 10 5 10 5
Paris, Texas 73 94 73 96 75 / 5 5 5 10 10
Denton, Texas 74 95 75 97 77 / 5 5 5 10 5
McKinney, Texas 75 94 75 95 77 / 5 5 5 10 5
Dallas, Texas 78 95 79 97 80 / 5 5 5 10 5
Terrell, Texas 74 94 75 95 76 / 5 5 5 10 5
Corsicana, Texas 75 95 76 96 77 / 10 10 5 10 5
Temple, Texas 73 94 74 97 74 / 10 10 5 10 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 71 94 72 96 73 / 5 5 5 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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