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afdfwd 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
613 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Aviation...
/12 tafs/

Concerns...none.

A strong upper high pressure system in advance of a strong western
U.S. Upper trough will result in VFR with mainly sky clear conditions
the next 24 hours. South-southwest winds 6-8 kts will prevail in the tafs
through tonight.

05/

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 328 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/
the latest satellite data indicates a low pressure system exiting the
northeast U.S. With an impressive looking upper trough entering
the West Coast region. In between...a ridge is currently
intensifying while shifting east from The Four-Corners into the
plains. The axis of the upper level ridge will pass overhead
during the next 24 hours...bringing well above-normal temperatures
to North Texas for this time of year. The 90 degrees forecast for
dfw would be a record if attained this afternoon...but Waco will
likely not reach their record of 94...which was set back in 1994.

The West Coast trough will March steadily east across the nation
during the first half of next week. Decreasing heights aloft and
increasing southerly surface flow will bring cooler afternoon
temperatures on Monday. A cold front will push south through the
central and Southern Plains on Monday as the upper trough
traverses the central part of the country. The front should make
its way into northern parts of the forecast area by Tuesday
morning...eventually reaching the southern part of the forecast
area Tuesday evening. The southward progression of the front will
slow considerably and possibly become stationary over the far
southern counties Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The brunt of the lift associated with the upper trough will remain
well north of the region...but moisture and low level convergence
near the front should be enough for isolated to widely scattered
convection Tuesday and Tuesday night. A lull in precipitation is expected
on Wednesday as the upper trough axis shifts to the eastern half
of the Continental U.S....and any remaining showers or isolated storms would
likely be over the southern half of the area nearest the front.

Northwesterly flow aloft will exist over North Texas on Thursday
and Friday as the upper trough lingers over the Appalachians. A
shortwave will dive southeast from the plains into North Texas
Thursday...bringing another brief round of convection across the
area. The European model (ecmwf) remains much stronger with this disturbance and
therefore much more optimistic with rain chances than the GFS. At
this time we will remain conservative with rain chances...keeping
slight chance probability of precipitation area-wide on Thursday. Either way...cooler and
more seasonal air can be expected Tuesday through next weekend as
a result of the weather pattern change.

30

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 90 65 89 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 5
Waco, Texas 89 61 88 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 5
Paris, Texas 88 62 85 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton, Texas 91 61 87 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney, Texas 89 61 86 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 5
Dallas, Texas 90 66 88 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 5
Terrell, Texas 89 63 87 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 88 63 86 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 5
Temple, Texas 87 61 86 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 91 60 89 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

05/30

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