Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1049 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
no significant changes are needed to the forecast. High temperatures
today will range from the middle 60s in the west to lower 50s in the
northeast. West winds this morning will become northwest by midday
at speeds of 10-20 miles per hour with gusts of 20-25 miles per hour. Humidity values
will be in the 20s this afternoon which may result in elevated
fire weather conditions this afternoon.
/issued 520 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016/
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the taf period.
Northwest winds will stay around 10 knots for the next several
hours. Wind gusts of 20 knots will begin during the morning
hours...but then drop off around sunset.
Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016/
North Texas is currently situated between a deep upper trough
across the eastern half of the country and a ridge across the
west. The resulting northwest flow aloft will keep US in a dry
pattern for the rest of the week and into the weekend. At the
surface...a very dry airmass remains in place with dewpoints in
the teens this morning. Clear skies and cold air advection have
allowed temperatures to drop into the 30-40 degree range across
the region. Colder conditions would have likely occurred had winds
fully decoupled...but the persistent northwest winds have
remained up around 10 miles per hour overnight and will continue today.
Near normal to slightly above-normal temperatures are expected across
the area today as the upper ridge noses in from the west. The
exception will be over the northeast counties where influence from
the East Coast trough will be felt. Highs will range from the low
50s in the northeast to the moderate 60s across the west. Winds will
become light and variable this evening as a surface ridge
currently over West Texas shifts east across north and central
Texas. With mostly clear skies and light winds in
place...temperatures should have little trouble falling into the
30s overnight tonight.
Southwest winds will develop Wednesday ahead of another cold
front...allowing temperatures to climb into the 60s across
the northeastern half or the region and 70s southwest. The front
appears to be a weak one...but will push south of the Red River
Thursday morning and eventually make it into the southern counties
Thursday afternoon. It will then become stationary before washing
out near the southern border of our forecast area. Locations
south of I-20 should see highs reach the 70s before the arrival of
the front...with areas north of I-20 seeing highs in the 60s.
Similar temperatures can be expected Friday before a stronger
front arrives on Saturday. This front will bring US back to near-
normal temperatures for the weekend.
By next Monday...the upper ridge will break down as a shortwave
trough drops southeast across the Central Plains. This should
generate enough moisture and lift for a least a chance of showers
Sunday night and Monday. A cold front will aid in the development
of these showers as it pushes through the area late Sunday through
The upper ridge will quickly nose its way back in from the
west on Tuesday...keeping conditions dry and temperatures above
normal Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 59 37 68 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 64 34 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 52 29 59 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 59 32 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 58 32 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 59 39 67 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 59 31 65 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 61 38 67 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 64 36 72 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 64 33 73 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 0