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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
753 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014

Update...
update coming to remove Wind Advisory and add a few cosmetic
changes to the winds/clouds. Forecast is still on track. 84

&&

Aviation...
/issued 546 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014/
strong west/northwest winds of 20-25kt with gusts up to 35kt will
continue through the next hour or two. Wind direction was more
westerly but has turned to near 300 degrees and should go to 310
during the next hour...which is a slightly better direction than
earlier today. Winds are expected to gradually diminish during the
next several hours and by 2z/8pm speeds will drop to 15-20kt with
gusts up to 28kt. By 4z/10pm speeds should drop to around 15kt
with gusts staying below 25kt. Northwest winds will prevail near 10kt
overnight through Monday.

Otherwise some scattered clouds near 040 this evening...but most
of these clouds will stay north of the tracon.

Tr.92



&&




Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014/
dry...breezy and warm conditions were occurring across north and
central Texas this afternoon. West-southwest winds 15 to 25 miles per hour
and temperatures in the 70s were noted as of 2 PM. A strong vorticity
maximum was moving east over West Texas resulting in the deepening of
a surface low currently across eastern Oklahoma. A strong cold
front was moving southeast northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma
currently and was approaching Wichita Falls and Abilene. Gusty
north-northwest winds between 20 to 30 miles per hour and temperatures falling
rapidly into the 40s were noted behind the cold front. Little
moisture was present with the very strong westerly low level flow
with no rainfall occurring along the cold front.

The cold front will enter into our northwest counties by late
afternoon/early evening...then progress through the entire area by
midnight. Gusty northwest winds this evening will diminish some
overnight with decoupling of the cold and dry boundary layer air.
We have maintained the current Wind Advisory timing and area for
now...though it is possible adjustments to the area or time may
occur as the evening progresses. Overnight low temperatures are
expected to fall between 35 to 45 degrees with wind chills by
sunrise Monday around or just above freezing expected north of
I-20.

The broad longwave trough over the central U.S will remain blocked
by a strong upper ridge just off the Atlantic Seaboard. More
shortwave energy is expected to move through the main upper trough
and maintain the cool cyclonic flow across the Southern Plains
Monday and Tuesday. Occasionally brisk conditions will continue
early this week with highs both days in the middle-upper 50s across
the north to between 60 and 65 degrees south into central Texas.

A strengthening eastern Pacific upper ridge develops by the late
week period and will help nudge the current upper longwave trough
east across the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This upper trough
will dampen...as will the eastern Pacific upper ridge as strong
middle level energy moves southeast from western Canada. The
subsequent strong near zonal flow aloft that develops over much of
the central U.S for Thanksgiving into the Holiday weekend will
result in strong Lee side pressure falls across the eastern plains
of Colorado and Wyoming. Strong southerly winds and warm advection
will help modify high temperatures back into the 60s and 70s. The
extended models diverge both at the surface and aloft toward the
end of the Holiday weekend and beyond. A conservative approach was
agreed upon with sister offices to maintain a dry and near
seasonable forecast for the far extended with uncertainty on the
overall pattern both at the surface and aloft.

05/




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 42 61 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 41 63 35 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 41 57 34 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 39 60 35 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 39 60 34 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 42 62 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 42 61 35 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 42 63 37 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 41 63 35 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 38 61 35 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/

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