Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
104 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014
Persistence forecast...typical late July weather with ridging
aloft. Southerly winds at the surface...generally under 12kts.
Daytime cumulus...clear at night.
No significant changes until Monday when a cold front may cross
the Red River...bringing with it the next chance of thunderstorms.
the upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across
the region. Temperatures will warm into the middle 90s to 101
degrees this afternoon. Given the 850 mb temperature and
southwest winds we should approach the 100 degree mark at dfw and
Waco today. The previous forecast is in good shape...so no
changes are planned at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 400 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/
temperatures will inch upward today through the weekend as the
center of the 700-500mb ridge positions itself very near the Red
River. Subsidence associated with the ridge will help reinforce
capping across North Texas effectively keeping rain chances near
zero through the weekend. With southwest flow 10-15kts above the
surface...afternoon mixing should allow dewpoints to drop into the
Lower/Middle 60s which will be a little more tolerable than 70s. This
yields heat index values between 102-104 degrees through Sunday so
while it will be hot...no heat advisory is expected over the next
While we typically expect long stretches of near 100 degree
temperatures during the Summer...this stretch will be short lived
as yet another deep trough is expected to develop over the eastern
half of the U.S. Next week. Water vapor imagery shows the strong
shortwave currently moving into southern Saskatchewan which will
dig southeast into the Great Lakes by Sunday. This will send
another cold front through the plains to near the Red River by
early Monday. The front may actually hang just north of the river
into Tuesday...but with strengthening northwest flow aloft and the
presence of the boundary...at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of Oklahoma.
This activity should drift southeast into the area so will have
some 20 probability of precipitation across the northern half of the County Warning Area on Monday.
At least some rain chances are likely to linger around for much of
the week...but the best chances right now appear like they will be
Wednesday evening into Thursday. A strong closed low over northern
Quebec will rotate westward into the Hudson Bay effectively
keeping the eastern U.S. Trough amplified during the middle week
timeframe. Meanwhile the guidance is in excellent agreement with a
fairly strong shortwave sliding down in the northwest flow late on
Wednesday. This should ignite a round of showers and thunderstorms
along the stalled frontal boundary. These showers and storms
should move south-southeast through the area. While the timing is
still a bit uncertain...probabilities are increasing for at least
one significant round of precipitation across North Texas. Have
raised probability of precipitation to 30-40 percent Wednesday night into Thursday and
will modify timing as we get closer.
Headed into the latter part of next week...it appears that
northerly flow aloft will prevail across much of the central and
Southern Plains. With the old frontal boundary somewhere in
Texas...the chance for precipitation will continue along with
cooler temperatures. All available guidance indicates that
temperatures will yet again be near 10 degrees below normal late
Concerning the temperature forecast next week...while it does look
likely that temperatures will be significantly cooler...the
current forecast will show a more steady decline through the week.
This takes into account uncertainty in cloud cover and
precipitation through middle week. Given the time of year...even the
slightest amount of sunshine can result in rapid temperature rises.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 99 77 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 5
Waco, Texas 98 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 5
Paris, Texas 94 73 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton, Texas 97 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney, Texas 97 74 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 5
Dallas, Texas 99 78 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 5
Terrell, Texas 98 76 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 97 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 5
Temple, Texas 96 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 100 74 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 5