Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1201 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014

/06z tafs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. North winds
overnight at or below 10 kts will increase to 12-17 kts Friday morning
with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Wind speeds will decrease around
sunset Friday as the winds start to turn more northeast. Some
clouds with bases between 3-5 kft may develop across the
metroplex Friday afternoon.



a cold front is trekking southward through the forecast area this
evening but is difficult to discern in the wind...temperature and
dew point fields. The current location is likely from near Paris
to Denton to Abilene line as of 9 PM. This front will continue to
move south through the forecast area overnight. Isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are still possible into
the overnight hours near and south of the front. Have just trimmed
back the probability of precipitation a little for the rest of the evening and overnight
hours and made some minor adjustments to the hourly trends.
Updates have already been sent.



Previous discussion... /issued 350 PM CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014/
looking at current visible satellite trends this afternoon
clouds are on the increase over much of the area as a cold front
is approaching from the north and Gulf moisture is funneling in to
north central Texas due to high pressure to the east centered over
northern Louisiana. The front is forecast to move through North
Texas over the next 12 hours and with the increased moisture focus
to the west and southwest of the metroplex scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
through around midnight for areas mainly south of I-20 and west of
I-35. A storm or two could be strong to severe with hail being the
primary hazard.

The front will move through quickly and the cooler air behind the
front along with clearing skies by Friday morning will result in
widespread lows in the low to middle 50s area wide Friday morning
with even some sub 50 readings along the Red River. The cooler
temperatures will stick around on Friday as highs will generally only be
in the low to middle 60s from dfw northward and in the middle 60s to low
70s for areas south. And with north winds 10-15 miles per hour area wide it
will be noticeably chillier on Friday as compared to today. Winds
will die down a bit by Friday evening but temperatures will also
be dropping into the low to middle 50s so a jacket is still
recommended for those with Friday evening outdoor plans.

Temperatures will continue to cool overnight Friday and areas
along the Red River could see freezing temperatures Saturday
morning. In fact our friends to the north in Oklahoma have issued
freeze watches for Saturday morning just to the north of the Red
River. We are not issuing any freeze watches or frost advisories
at this time. Colder air does seem to be working its way further
south with each model run so a watch or advisory may be necessary
with future forecast packages. Regardless there will more than
likely be patchy frost Saturday morning for areas along the Red
River so those with sensitive vegetation should take the necessary

With high pressure anchored in place over the area Saturday skies
will be clear but daytime temperatures will remain relatively
cool with highs only in the low 60s. By Sunday morning the high
will slide off to the east and winds will swing around to the
southeast. This will moderate temperatures a bit and Sunday
morning lows will be in the low to middle 40s for most of North
Texas. Continued southerly flow will allow temperatures to rebound
on Sunday with Sunday highs in the low 70s.

The end of the dry weather will come early next week as a very
promising weather system will approach North Texas Monday and
give US a very good chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms
by Tuesday. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions show the best chance
for widespread rain to be on Tuesday but rain could start as early
as Monday for areas to the west. There is still a bit of
discrepancy in the GFS and European model (ecmwf) as to how quickly this system
will move through. The GFS is more progressive and moves the rain
chances through by Wednesday morning while the European model (ecmwf) tries to form
a cutoff upper level low over North Texas and leave rain chances
lingering into Thursday. Regardless it appears as though some
healthy rainfall is on the way and current total rainfall amounts
from late Monday through early Wednesday are in the 1.5 to 2.0
inch range area wide on average. This total rainfall forecast will
surely be refined in the days to come though so stay tuned for
updates as we wait for the models to come into better alignment.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 53 65 38 61 46 / 10 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 54 70 40 63 43 / 40 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 46 64 33 58 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 50 63 34 60 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 51 64 35 60 41 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 54 65 39 61 46 / 10 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 53 66 37 60 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 52 69 38 61 41 / 20 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 55 70 42 63 43 / 50 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 49 64 36 62 42 / 10 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations