Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
559 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016
winds will be on the increase later this morning as a strong
surface ridge surges south from the plains to central Texas.
Northwest winds around 15 knots are expected to increase to 20-25 knots
with gusts 30-35 knots later this morning and continue through the
late afternoon hours. Wind gusts may approach Airport weather
warning criteria...with the most likely time being 18-22z when the
best low level mixing will occur. Fire weather conditions will
become critical today...and the red flag warning issued earlier
includes both the dfw area and the Waco area. Winds will begin to
decrease by 00z and should be in the 12-15 knots range around 09/02z.
The middle-level cloud deck near the Red River earlier has all but
eroded...and any remaining clouds should be limited to high
cirrus for the rest of the day. Otherwise...VFR conditions
can be expected area-wide through the forecast period.
Previous discussion... /issued 416 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016/
Arctic air is plunging through the upper Midwest and will continue
pushing south today. With unseasonably strong ridging across the
western states...the slope of the height fields across the central
states will steepen...and the associated jet will intensify as it
digs south in response. Over North Texas...500mb winds will exceed
100kts today. Within 2 miles of the surface...wind speeds will
approach 80kts. As the mixing depth deepens this morning...some of
this northwesterly momentum will reach the surface. The Wind
Advisory speed criterion of sustained 25mph should be met
throughout the region. Peak gusts will exceed 40mph in some areas.
The cold advection will be somewhat offset by downslope warming...
but daytime temperatures will be below normal throughout the
region. Despite the cool air...the gusty winds and relative
humidity below 25 percent will yield critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon. The abundant autumn growth is now
dormant...and this vegetation would be the first to initiate fire.
Although there is some green cold season growth that will be more
resistant to fire spread...the winds will make any potential
wildfires difficult to contain today. A red flag warning has been
issued for areas along and west of a line from Gainesville...to
Dallas...to Centerville. Elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to the east of this line.
The winds will steadily subside this evening...and temperatures
will fall to near freezing Tuesday morning. Northerly winds will
prevail on Tuesday...but as middle-level heights rise here and
upstream...the downslope warming will exceed the diminishing
thermal advection. As a result...many areas will reach the 60s
The warming trend will continue Wednesday and Thursday. With
unseasonably strong ridging...balmy 850mb temperatures...and
southwesterly surface winds ahead of an approaching front...
Thursday will be the warmest day of the week. The front may cross
the Red River Thursday afternoon...but the bulk of the region will
reach peak heating before the colder air arrives Thursday night.
With persistent northerly flow aloft and negligible moisture
return in the low levels...this frontal passage looks Bone dry.
Cooler weather will follow on Friday and Saturday...but southern
and western zones may still exceed normal values for mid-February.
Breezy south winds will return on Valentines day...but Gulf
moisture will be rather paltry in advance of the subsequent
frontal passage early next week. The European model (ecmwf) is the most bullish
with a shortwave in northwest flow and corresponding
precipitation...but this event remains beyond the current 7-day
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 56 35 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 58 32 64 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 52 29 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 55 31 61 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 55 31 59 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 58 36 61 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 56 34 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 56 34 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 58 33 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 56 31 65 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
red flag warning from 9 am this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
Wind Advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 PM CST this evening