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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
621 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015

Aviation...
light rain currently falling west of the region will move slowly east
through the morning. A few sprinkles may reach the ground across
all North Texas taf sites before midday. However...most of the
rain will evaporate as it falls through an extremely dry layer
near the surface. The dry layer will moisten with time and large
scale lift will slowly increase. We expect ceilings to lower to
around 3000 feet by middle afternoon with light rain finally reaching
the ground. Ceilings will continue to lower through late afternoon
as Gulf moisture rapidly increases. MVFR conditions are expected
before sunset with ceilings between 1000 and 2000 feet. IFR
conditions are expected to develop between 02 and 03z and remain
between 700 and 1000 feet overnight with periods of light rain/showers.
Some temporary LIFR conditions are possible overnight...especially
in Waco.

A south to southeast wind will prevail between 9 and 15 knots
through tonight. The wind will turn to the northwest after sunrise
Sunday with the passage of a cold front. Ceilings will slowly lift
after frontal passage.



79

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Previous discussion... /issued 258 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015/
as I write this an area of virga sits over western counties
moving northeast at 25 miles per hour. An occasional rain drop may make it
to the surface...but the 00z sounding showed very dry air between
750 and 950 mb. It will take a bit of precipitation to moisten this
layer. As a result...although precipitation onset timing has changed
little...I have decreased quantitative precipitation forecast since a good portion of our
expected rain will evaporate as it moistens this layer. Many
areas will now struggle to get a quarter inch out of this
system...with a bit more than a third of an inch possible in the
northwest and northern counties.

The precipitation should also shut off faster Sunday as the accompanying
cold front dries out the lower levels. Better precipitation chances are
now confined to the southeastern half of north/central Texas after
noon.

The upper low prognosticated to sweep east across coastal Texas Tuesday
night into Wednesday has its track shifted a bit farther
north...and low probability of precipitation have been adjusted a bit north as well. I
would not be surprised to see the track shift back south again
tomorrow...that seems to be the pattern with this system. At any
rate...with the trough passage another cold front will sweep
south across the area. GFS and European model (ecmwf) generate quantitative precipitation forecast behind this
front...but moisture is limited to below the inversion and this
would appear to be drizzle rather than showers or rain.

Temperatures will remain seasonably cool...with Wednesday likely the
warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s. 84



&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 55 48 57 29 44 / 60 90 60 10 5
Waco, Texas 55 51 61 32 47 / 60 80 70 10 5
Paris, Texas 54 44 55 27 42 / 40 90 70 10 5
Denton, Texas 53 45 54 28 44 / 70 90 60 10 5
McKinney, Texas 55 46 56 28 43 / 60 90 70 10 5
Dallas, Texas 55 48 58 30 44 / 60 90 60 10 5
Terrell, Texas 56 49 59 30 44 / 50 90 70 10 5
Corsicana, Texas 56 51 61 31 45 / 50 80 70 10 5
Temple, Texas 56 52 63 33 48 / 60 70 70 10 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 52 46 53 28 46 / 90 80 40 10 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

79/84

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