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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
346 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Discussion...
high clouds will be on the increase from southwest to northeast
today as an upper trough approaches from the west. These clouds
should limit fog development this morning for most of the region
with the exception of the eastern zones where some patchy fog is
possible through middle morning. A few showers will accompany the
approaching trough across the western zones today. Rain chances
will increase slightly tonight through Thursday morning.
However...meager low level moisture and instability should limit
shower/storm development overall. Therefore...we will keep only
slight chance probability of precipitation mentioned across the west and north
tonight/Thursday morning.

The upper trough axis will move east of the region Thursday
afternoon as a high amplitude ridge builds in from the west. This
ridge will bring mostly clear and warm conditions to North Texas
on the weekend. Afternoon highs Friday through Sunday will be
mainly in the lower and middle 80s with lows generally in the
upper 50s and 60s.

The upper pattern will become more active early next week with
the ridge building toward the East Coast and a progressive trough
developing in the west. The Gulf will finally fully open up early
next week with deep Lee troughing across the Central High plains.
The first in a series of short waves embedded in southwest flow
aloft will lift from the central rockies to the Great Lakes
Tuesday and allow a cold front to move south across the central
and Southern Plains. The arrival of the cold front in North Texas
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through
Wednesday. However...southwest flow aloft will bring warm air
from the Mexican plateau which will most likely keep a Stout cap
in place. For now we will include only 20 percent probability of precipitation in the forecast
on Tuesday.

79

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1148 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
/06z tafs/

Concerns...light fog possible Wednesday morning.

Light and variable or light east to southeast winds will prevail
through the period. Light fog with visby restrictions of 4-6sm will
be possible early Wednesday morning but overnight cloud cover
could interrupt the fog development by keeping temperatures
slightly warmer than would be needed for fog development.

82/jld



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 82 61 80 62 83 / 0 10 20 10 10
Waco, Texas 83 57 82 56 84 / 0 5 10 10 10
Paris, Texas 78 53 74 55 79 / 0 10 20 10 10
Denton, Texas 82 57 80 58 83 / 5 20 20 10 10
McKinney, Texas 80 55 80 55 84 / 0 20 20 10 10
Dallas, Texas 81 61 80 63 82 / 0 10 20 10 10
Terrell, Texas 80 56 80 56 82 / 0 10 20 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 81 57 80 58 84 / 0 5 10 10 10
Temple, Texas 84 57 80 56 84 / 0 5 10 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 82 58 80 57 87 / 5 20 20 10 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

30/79

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