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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
953 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015

Update...
we have retained the isolated chance of a shower/T-storm later
tonight over the western counties since the Panhandle complex
continues to move southeast. Although this system should not move
into the region...if at all...until after daybreak...any
associated lift and warm advection inflow toward the system may
produce some activity over the western counties before daybreak.
Current forecast has this covered. 75

&&

Aviation...
/issued 649 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015/
an upper level ridge will build in from the west during the next
couple of days. VFR conditions will prevail through 06z Wednesday.
East southeast winds will become southerly by 15z Tuesday. 58

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 329 PM CDT Monday Jun 1 2015/
the primary concern continues to be river flooding from last
month/S heavy rain. The Trinity River is in the process of
cresting at near-record flood levels from Dallas
southeastward...and residents near the river should continue to
monitor the latest river forecasts and flood statements.

The upper level pattern consists of an upper low near the Ohio
River valley and a ridge over West Texas...and this will be the
general set-up for the next several days. A few storms will
probably occur within an axis of instability over the western and
third of the region late this afternoon as one weak disturbance
drops south in the north flow aloft. Another impulse is expected
tomorrow...with another opportunity for isolated convection across
the west.

The ridge will intensify Wednesday through the end of the
week...with 500mb heights approaching 590 dam by the weekend.
This will allow for increasing temperatures from now through the
extended portion of the forecast. High temperatures are expected
to reach the lower 90s across most of the region by Saturday when
the upper ridging appears to be at its strongest. It is tempting
to forecast warmer than the model consensus...but since soil
moisture will still high we will stick fairly close to guidance.
Low temperatures by the weekend should be quite warm as
well...with most overnight low readings remaining in the 70s.

The ridge will flatten out early next week as a trough deepens in
the northeast. This will allow some low chances of rain to return
to the area by the middle of next week as a front creeps south of
the Red River. For now...we will keep the forecast dry at least
through the day 7 period...but may need to add some low probability of precipitation in
future forecasts.

30




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 63 86 68 88 70 / 10 10 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 62 87 67 88 68 / 5 10 5 5 5
Paris, Texas 62 84 65 86 67 / 5 10 5 5 5
Denton, Texas 64 85 68 87 68 / 10 10 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 63 85 65 87 67 / 5 10 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 64 86 68 89 70 / 5 10 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 62 86 66 87 68 / 5 10 5 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 63 86 67 87 68 / 5 10 5 5 5
Temple, Texas 63 87 67 88 68 / 5 10 5 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 64 87 67 88 68 / 10 20 5 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/75

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