Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1138 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014
MVFR ceilings will continue at all taf sites overnight. Ceilings
should slowly lift and become VFR by late morning Sunday.
Precipitation overnight will remain south of all North Texas
A north to northwest wind will continue overnight between 10 and
14 knots. Surface high pressure will settle into North Texas on
Sunday and result in decreasing wind speeds. As the high pressure
center moves toward the Gulf Sunday evening...light winds will
become southerly but remain below 10 knots.
quick update to mention isolated thunderstorms primarily from The
Temple/Killeen areas east to Centerville through this evening.
Cluster of elevated thunderstorms extends from near Fredericksburg
east to Georgetown and these will continue to move northeast over
the next hour. Lightning and possibly some small hail will be the
main threats with these storms. Otherwise...no other changes needed.
Previous discussion... /issued 328 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014/
the 3 PM /21z/ surface analysis indicated that the cold front had
nearly exited the forecast area...extending from near Paris to
Athens and College Station. This front will move through the rest
of the forecast during the next couple of hours. Northwesterly
winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour will become northerly and decrease to 10 to
15 miles per hour late this evening. A chance of light rain will continue
tonight. The highest probability of precipitation for the next few hours will be in the
area northeast of the metroplex and across the southwestern zones
with qpfs of less than 1/10th of an inch expected. Later this
evening into the overnight period the highest probability of precipitation and highest quantitative precipitation forecast
/1/4 inch or less/ will be across the southeastern counties. It
will be cloudy and cold overnight with lows ranging from slightly
below freezing across the northwestern third to around 40 degrees
in the southeast.
The 20z water vapor imagery shows a vorticity maximum over eastern Arizona
while an open trough extended from north central Kansas southwest
into Arizona. The evolution of the trough and embedded short wave
systems over the next several days is complicated and there are
some model differences. The system over Arizona should be the
dominate feature and it will dig south southeast into the southern
part of the Mexican state of Sonora or the northern part of
sinaloa during the next 36 hours before moving east across
northern Mexico and then into Texas by late Monday. It seems
likely that the best chances of rain will be across south Texas
Sunday through Monday. We have kept some low probability of precipitation /20-30 percent/
Sunday across the area southeast of a Goldthwaite to Canton line.
Have also kept some 20 percent probability of precipitation Monday southeast of a
Goldthwaite to Waxahachie to Cooper line assuming that some
showers will occur ahead of the upper low.
Mostly cloudy skies will prevail across all but the northwest
Sunday. Northerly winds 10 to 15 miles per hour in the morning will decrease
in speed during the afternoon. Highs should be mostly in the 50s.
We will see another cold night Sunday night as high pressure moves
across the region. Winds will be southwest to south during the day
Monday. High temperatures will be flip-flopped of the normal with
the warmest ones across the northwestern zones where they will see
more sunshine and better down slope winds...while temperatures
will be coolest in the southeast where there will be more clouds
and a chance of rain as the upper level low/trough moves across.
A weak front will move through the region Tuesday night bringing
northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures but no
precipitation. Southerly winds will return late Thursday ahead of
a shortwave that will move across the Southern Plains Friday.
Rainfall chances with this system do not look very good...so have
just placed some 10 percent probability of precipitation with no mention of rain.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 37 56 40 72 49 / 30 5 5 10 10
Waco, Texas 38 54 38 68 46 / 40 20 10 20 20
Paris, Texas 38 55 39 72 48 / 60 10 5 10 10
Denton, Texas 35 56 35 75 46 / 30 5 5 5 10
McKinney, Texas 36 56 36 72 46 / 30 5 5 10 10
Dallas, Texas 37 56 41 71 50 / 30 10 5 10 10
Terrell, Texas 37 56 40 70 48 / 40 10 10 20 10
Corsicana, Texas 38 55 42 68 50 / 50 20 10 20 20
Temple, Texas 38 53 39 66 46 / 50 20 10 20 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 33 59 35 74 44 / 20 5 5 5 5