Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1252 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail with a period of MVFR ceilings possible
Thursday morning. Have removed mention of vcsh at metroplex taf
sites due to low confidence in activity impacting any sites. South
to southeasterly winds should continue with broad low pressure
north of the region. Confidence in a decaying mesoscale convective system from Oklahoma
and Arkansas moving south late this evening making it into the
metroplex is low...but will monitor to see if inclusion into later
tafs is necessary. Low level stratus should return to the region
early Thursday morning and will likely result in a period of MVFR
ceilings. The best window appears to be between 10-15 UTC. Isolated to
widely scattered showers may be possible after stratus dissipates
and heating commences late Thursday morning and into the
afternoon...but confidence is too low to include in metroplex
tafs.



MVFR stratus at Waco should improve to VFR 20-21z. Expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms late afternoon so have placed
a thunderstorms in the vicinity in the Waco taf for the 20-01z period. After 01z...the
convection should weaken but some scattered showers may linger.
After 09z expect stratus to spread north with IFR to lower end
MVFR ceilings and also some fog. Ceilings and visibilities should
start to improve late morning /around 16z/.

15/58

&&



Update...
the main chance of showers and thunderstorms today will hold off
until after 1 PM. Thus have lowered the probability of precipitation for the rest of the
morning. The fog that developed before daybreak southeast of a
Killeen to Canton line has nearly dispersed as of 10 am. No
changes were made to the afternoon forecast. The updated forecast
has been sent.

58

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 339 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014/
scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
into the weekend. In general...the greatest coverage of activity
is expected across the southern zones near and south of Waco
during the afternoon and evening hours today and Thursday.

Low level Gulf moisture...rich middle level Pacific moisture...and
an uncapped atmosphere will be favorable for thunderstorm
development in the afternoon hours today and Thursday. Without a
discernible larger scale surface boundary in place...it is hard to
justify the multiple periods of likely probability of precipitation forecast by model
guidance in the southern zones today through Thursday. Will scale
down the guidance probability of precipitation somewhat in the south...but the forecast
will still feature 50 to 60 probability of precipitation around Waco and Temple this
afternoon and again Thursday afternoon. Weak upper level support...
trackable as a slow moving shear axis extending from east central
nm into central Texas at 500 mb...will keep a threat for showers and
a few thunderstorms into the nighttime hours through at least
Thursday night. Instability and vertical wind shear are not
favorable for an organized severe weather threat this week...but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Thunderstorm chances will continue Friday and Saturday as the deep
layered moisture remains in place. Upper level ridging will affect
the eastern areas...so higher rain chances will tend to shift into
the western zones Friday and Saturday. A cold front is still on
track to move through Oklahoma Sunday and into North Texas Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front before drier and more stable air spreads
across the area by Monday. Slightly cooler and noticeably drier
air will affect all of north and central Texas early next week.

09




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 91 74 89 71 90 / 30 20 30 20 20
Waco, Texas 90 72 87 70 90 / 50 40 50 30 30
Paris, Texas 90 70 88 68 88 / 20 20 20 5 10
Denton, Texas 91 72 89 69 89 / 20 20 30 20 20
McKinney, Texas 90 71 88 68 88 / 20 20 20 10 20
Dallas, Texas 91 74 89 71 89 / 30 20 30 20 20
Terrell, Texas 90 72 87 69 89 / 30 20 30 20 20
Corsicana, Texas 90 72 87 69 89 / 40 40 50 20 20
Temple, Texas 89 72 86 70 88 / 60 40 50 30 30
Mineral Wells, Texas 89 70 87 69 88 / 30 20 40 20 30

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations