Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
745 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015
an upper level low over West Texas this evening will move east
across North Texas overnight tonight and Tuesday before moving
into Louisiana by 00z Wednesday. Scattered showers will be
possible through this period...with isolated thunderstorms
possible overnight tonight.
A band of showers and thundeerstorms that exended along the I-35
corridor from the Oklahoma border to just north of Waco at 00z
will continue to move east at 15 to 20 miles per hour. After a temporary
improvement behind the convection...expect ceilings to lower back
to MVFR in the metroplex...with IFR conditions possible by
daybreak. MVFR ceilings should return by 21z. Expect northerly
flow to prevail through 06z Wednesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/
after a very active pattern of late...north and central Texas
will experience one additional unsettled day before enjoying a
sustained period of very mild...pleasant weather.
The sprawling upper level low currently centered near Lubbock
will track eastward along the Red River...reaching Arkansas by
Tuesday evening. A line of ragged-looking convection has developed
along a north-south convergence line from near Bowie to
Stephenville through middle afternoon. This band is still expected to
move eastward into the I-35 corridor by late afternoon/early
evening...with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
forming over eastern North Texas in an area of good isentropic
ascent. We're maintaining high probability of precipitation across much of the northern
and eastern counties to handle this precipitation for most of the
night. Additional light showers will likely form over western
North Texas...into Gainesville/Denton/dfw...closer to daybreak
Tuesday as wraparound moisture evolves on the backside of the
upper low along the Red River.
Surface and mixed layer convective available potential energy are now running in the 500-2000
jkg-1 range south of a Waco to Palestine line...coincident with
good deep layer shear. Would be more concerned about additional
severe weather in this area...but latest visible satellite trends are
not impressive- depicting widespread cumulus field with little
vertical development. Westerly surface flow has also surged
eastward past Waco and Cameron...so storm development will need to
initiate shortly along this convergence line if its going to
happen at all this afternoon. Farther north along the I-35
corridor from Hillsboro to Gainesville...convective available potential energy are minimal/non-
existent...so do not expect any severe weather in these areas.
Tuesday promises to be a rather cool...gray day with breezy north
winds and off-and-on showers spinning around the backside of the
departing upper low. Will hang onto pretty high probability of precipitation over the
northern and northeast counties...tapering to the south. Most of
the light rain should diminish from west to east during the
afternoon...with gradual clearing Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
Temperatures Tuesday will remain well below seasonal norms...with
values mostly in the lower to middle 60s.
Rest of the forecast looks dry...mild and pleasant as upper
ridging evolves over the Southern Plains. Next possible shot at
rainfall looks to be next Monday...when a weak shortwave slides
into the area from the west on zonal flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 55 66 50 75 53 / 60 40 5 0 10
Waco, Texas 52 64 46 76 49 / 40 20 0 0 5
Paris, Texas 50 60 44 70 50 / 80 60 5 0 5
Denton, Texas 51 64 46 74 48 / 60 40 5 0 10
McKinney, Texas 53 63 48 74 50 / 70 50 5 0 5
Dallas, Texas 54 64 49 75 53 / 60 40 5 0 10
Terrell, Texas 55 62 48 74 52 / 70 50 5 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 56 63 47 73 51 / 60 40 0 0 10
Temple, Texas 56 66 48 73 47 / 30 20 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 52 63 45 74 47 / 50 30 0 0 0