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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
520 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Aviation...
VFR through period. Very light winds expected today...with a
northerly component when there is wind. By this evening winds will
slowly switch to the southeast...becoming 08-10kt by Wednesday
afternoon.

&84&

Previous discussion... /issued 312 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015/
an upper level ridge that is centered to the west of region will move
east during the next couple of days and get flattened by a shortwave
moving across the inter-mountain west toward the northern and
Central Plains. This will result in continued warm and dry weather
through Wednesday night. Highs today will be in the 70s area-
wide...which is about 15 degrees above seasonal normals. Highs
Wednesday will also be mainly in the 70s with even some lower 80s
possible west of the I-35 corridor.

As the aforementioned shortwave moves out across the northern and
Central Plains...a cold front will move south into the Texas
Panhandle Wednesday and into the northwestern part of North Texas
before daybreak Thursday. This front will move through central
Texas before sunset Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be closer
to...but still above seasonal normals...ranging from the lower
60s along the Red River to around 70 degrees in the southeastern
zones.

Clouds will be on the increase from the southwest Thursday night
as isentropic upglide increases above the frontal boundary. Some
light rain should develop by Friday morning across the western
zones and approach the I-35 corridor during the afternoon. Rain
chances will increase area-wide Friday night and Saturday as
isentropic upglide continues and an upper level trough digs into
the southwestern United States. A piece of the upper level trough
will cut off and dig southward into Baja California California by Sunday
night and the rest of the system will merge with a shortwave
moving in the northern branch. This should result in at least a
temporary end of the rain Sunday night. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS differ
on how they handle the Baja California system from this point Onward with the
European model (ecmwf) weakening the low and moving it more quickly east while the
GFS keeps a slower moving closed low. Have followed the GFS
solution for the Monday/Tuesday time period...which has the Baja California
system moving east across northern Mexico and across deep south
Texas next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Given this have
indicated that rain chances will return Monday night through
Tuesday across the southern zones.

58

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 75 48 77 53 64 / 0 0 0 5 5
Waco, Texas 76 44 77 53 68 / 0 0 0 5 5
Paris, Texas 73 43 73 51 62 / 0 0 0 5 5
Denton, Texas 76 43 77 49 63 / 0 0 0 5 5
McKinney, Texas 73 42 75 51 63 / 0 0 0 5 5
Dallas, Texas 74 49 77 54 64 / 0 0 0 5 5
Terrell, Texas 74 45 75 53 65 / 0 0 0 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 75 48 75 53 66 / 0 0 0 5 5
Temple, Texas 77 45 77 51 68 / 0 0 0 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 76 46 81 48 65 / 0 0 0 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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