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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
619 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Aviation...
VFR should prevail through the period. We are watching a patch of
IFR ceilings northeast of the metroplex taf sites which have been
slowly moving southwest. It seems these ceilings have been confined to
areas that saw more rain from yesterday/S storms and therefore
should disperse as they move into the drier/warmer urban areas.
However will need to keep an eye on them for dfw/Dal tafs through
middle morning. Otherwise VFR ceilings near 050 will hang around through
midday with a clearing this afternoon. Generally clear skies will
prevail overnight and tomorrow. Light southeast winds this morning
will become light east/northeast this afternoon...returning to the
southeast tonight.

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 354 am CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/
after yesterdays storms across the eastern half of North
Texas...things should be quieter today as the upper ridge
continues to build eastward into the region. A few showers are
ongoing east of Waco this morning and these will likely continue
to move southwest through the early morning hours before diminishing.
Yesterdays convection was quite a bit stronger than expected and
sent a large outflow boundary through the area. This has helped to
lower dewpoints across North Texas by about 5 degrees from where
they were yesterday morning. The outflow boundary is southwest of
Austin now and extends back east toward Houston. This should be
where most of the afternoon scattered showers and storms develop
later today...so have removed the mention of thunderstorms across
North Texas. Highs today will be mainly in the upper 90s to near
100 degrees but with light winds it will still feel quite
oppressive. Heat index values will generally be 102 to 105 degrees
across much of the area.

Friday into the weekend will be continued hot with little in the
way of precipitation across North Texas. The upper ridge will be
centered just to the west of the region with light southerly winds
and humid conditions continuing. Current heat advisory runs
through Friday and this looks good for now. While it may need to
be extended into Saturday...we may actually mix dewpoints a little
lower Saturday afternoon and southerly winds will be a little
higher during the afternoon which should help out a bit.

Meanwhile...the model guidance is still in good agreement with a
strong shortwave moving out of southern Canada on Saturday into
the Great Lakes. This will reinforce troughing across much of the
eastern half of the U.S. Into early next week. A cold front will
slide southward and should be close to North Texas by Monday.
While it doesnt appear that it will blast through the region and
may actually hang up just north of the Red River...there is a
decent shot of showers and thunderstorms along the front. This
will likely help spread increasing cloudiness across North Texas
on Monday. Will introduce some low probability of precipitation across the northern half
of the County Warning Area on Monday with temperatures still in the upper 90s.
Rain chances will continue through midweek as the front slowly
slides southward. Deep troughing looks like it will persist at
least through the end of next week across the eastern half of the
U.S. Which will mean considerably cooler temperatures. For North
Texas...with strong ridging just to the west any shift in these
features could result in substantial changes to the current
temperature forecast. Right now...will show a steady decline in
temperatures through the middle of next week with highs in the
80s/lower 90s on Thursday and continued 20-30 percent rain
chances.

Dunn

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 99 79 102 79 101 / 5 5 5 0 0
Waco, Texas 98 77 100 77 100 / 10 5 5 0 0
Paris, Texas 94 74 98 76 99 / 10 5 5 0 0
Denton, Texas 98 77 101 76 101 / 5 5 5 0 0
McKinney, Texas 97 76 100 75 100 / 5 5 5 0 0
Dallas, Texas 99 79 102 80 102 / 5 5 5 0 0
Terrell, Texas 97 76 101 76 101 / 10 5 5 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 97 76 101 76 100 / 10 5 5 0 0
Temple, Texas 98 75 99 74 99 / 10 5 5 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 100 75 103 75 102 / 5 5 5 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT Friday for txz091>095-
100>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.



&&

$$

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