Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1136 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015
getting to be concerned about a few things for this afternoon and
tonight...Crosswinds and thunderstorm potential. The clear skies
across much of the region this morning is hiding the trickiness of
the forecast today.
Surface winds already picking already this morning...with Temple
gusting to 28 miles per hour at 11 am. Several other observation sites
showing increased mixing...and winds in excess of 15 miles per hour as well.
Expect this trend to continue through the afternoon before the
winds diminish a bit this evening. Wind direction will be between
170 and 200 degrees...which could create a few crosswind issues
for the metroplex airports.
Thunderstorm chances are the bigger concern for this taf cycle.
12utc sounding at forward shows steep lapse rates above 850...and high
resolution model soundings continue to show this feature nicely.
As the front moves closer tonight...expect to see scattered
coverage of thunderstorms. Only question then becomes whether or
not any Airport sites will be impacted. For the upcoming
cycle...will leave out the mention for thunder...but additional
updates to that forecast are possible.
Previous discussion... /issued 403 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015/
with a long wave trough situated over the eastern Seaboard and
an upper level ridge sitting over the Desert Southwest...warm and
dry weather is expected to continue through the day today across
north and central Texas. Afternoon highs are expected to climb
into the upper 70s in our northeast zones to near 90 out west. Southerly
winds will increase to around 15 miles per hour this afternoon as well...and
this stronger southerly flow will help filter moisture back into
A shortwave embedded in the long wave pattern will be making its
way across the plains later today...and this approaching system
and pendant cold front will usher in sensible weather chances for
north and central Texas late tonight and into tomorrow. The cold
front is expected to push into far northwestern North Texas late
this afternoon and eventually stall across our area Sunday
night/Monday morning. This will provide a source of lift for
North Texas. Forecast soundings also indicate ample elevated
instability during the overnight hours...so the
lift...instability...and moisture return yield a possibility of
thunderstorms for North Texas...particularly along and north of
Interstate 20 during the overnight hours. Cloud-to-ground
lightning...small hail...and locally gusty winds would be the
primary hazards if any convection develops. Precipitation chances
will spread eastward through the day on Monday. Low rain chances
will remain through the day Tuesday...but after the precipitation
winds down on Monday...expect the uptick in precipitation coverage
to really hold off until Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with
the approach of another system.
This next system...a shortwave currently situated in the eastern
Pacific...and approaching Baja California California...will move towards our
area from the southwest and bring another chance for precipitation
late Tuesday through Wednesday. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected. This system should exit the region by
Thursday...with precipitation ending from west to east Wednesday
evening/Thursday morning. This will provide a break in rainfall
and cloud cover during the day on Thursday as subsidence moves
into the area.
Temperatures through the next six days are expected to remain
above normal...by the end of the week...model guidance suggests
another cold front pushing into north and central Texas on Friday
that would finally knock temperatures down to seasonal normals or
slightly lower. Also...low rain chances would return to the region
Friday through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 84 60 75 63 78 / 5 20 20 20 20
Waco, Texas 85 62 77 62 77 / 5 10 20 20 20
Paris, Texas 78 55 72 58 75 / 10 30 30 20 20
Denton, Texas 83 57 74 61 78 / 5 20 20 20 20
McKinney, Texas 81 57 73 62 77 / 5 30 30 20 20
Dallas, Texas 83 61 75 63 78 / 5 30 20 20 20
Terrell, Texas 82 59 74 61 76 / 10 30 30 20 20
Corsicana, Texas 82 61 76 61 76 / 5 20 30 20 20
Temple, Texas 84 61 77 61 77 / 5 10 20 20 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 88 57 75 61 79 / 5 20 10 20 20