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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1202 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

an upper level low over West Texas will move east across North
Texas Tuesday and into Louisiana Tuesday night. Expect scattered
showers to move across the region as the upper level low moves
east. Ceilings in the metroplex have been going in and out during
the evening...but expect mainly MVFR ceilings to prevail overnight
with some IFR conditions likely by daybreak. As the upper low
moves into Louisiana...we should see skies clear by middle Wednesday



satellite data this evening shows a nice looking upper low
spiraling over northwest Texas. Cool air aloft associated with
this system combined with a series of upper level disturbances
has led to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the
past few days. Activity this evening had much less in the way of
shear and instability to work with...and remained relatively
benign. The main problem was the inch or so of additional
rainfall that came along with the slow moving showers and
storms...which added to the already flooded locations from last
night. These storms have finally reached the eastern border of our
County Warning Area...and we will decrease probability of precipitation after midnight as this line moves
east of the region. However...we will continue maintain chance of
showers and isolated storms overnight due to the proximity of the
upper low. Some of this activity...though more scattered in
nature...can already be seen re-entering our western counties
this hour.

Otherwise...we will decrease low temperatures by a few degrees
based on the latest trends.



Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/
after a very active pattern of late...north and central Texas
will experience one additional unsettled day before enjoying a
sustained period of very mild...pleasant weather.

The sprawling upper level low currently centered near Lubbock
will track eastward along the Red River...reaching Arkansas by
Tuesday evening. A line of ragged-looking convection has developed
along a north-south convergence line from near Bowie to
Stephenville through middle afternoon. This band is still expected to
move eastward into the I-35 corridor by late afternoon/early
evening...with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
forming over eastern North Texas in an area of good isentropic
ascent. We're maintaining high probability of precipitation across much of the northern
and eastern counties to handle this precipitation for most of the
night. Additional light showers will likely form over western
North Texas...into Gainesville/Denton/dfw...closer to daybreak
Tuesday as wraparound moisture evolves on the backside of the
upper low along the Red River.

Surface and mixed layer convective available potential energy are now running in the 500-2000
jkg-1 range south of a Waco to Palestine line...coincident with
good deep layer shear. Would be more concerned about additional
severe weather in this area...but latest visible satellite trends are
not impressive- depicting widespread cumulus field with little
vertical development. Westerly surface flow has also surged
eastward past Waco and storm development will need to
initiate shortly along this convergence line if its going to
happen at all this afternoon. Farther north along the I-35
corridor from Hillsboro to Gainesville...convective available potential energy are minimal/non- do not expect any severe weather in these areas.

Tuesday promises to be a rather cool...gray day with breezy north
winds and off-and-on showers spinning around the backside of the
departing upper low. Will hang onto pretty high probability of precipitation over the
northern and northeast counties...tapering to the south. Most of
the light rain should diminish from west to east during the
afternoon...with gradual clearing Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
Temperatures Tuesday will remain well below seasonal norms...with
values mostly in the lower to middle 60s.

Rest of the forecast looks dry...mild and pleasant as upper
ridging evolves over the Southern Plains. Next possible shot at
rainfall looks to be next Monday...when a weak shortwave slides
into the area from the west on zonal flow.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 50 66 50 75 53 / 50 40 5 0 10
Waco, Texas 52 64 46 76 49 / 40 20 0 0 5
Paris, Texas 49 60 44 70 50 / 60 40 5 0 5
Denton, Texas 50 64 46 74 48 / 50 40 5 0 10
McKinney, Texas 50 63 48 74 50 / 50 40 5 0 5
Dallas, Texas 51 64 49 75 53 / 50 40 5 0 10
Terrell, Texas 52 62 48 74 52 / 50 40 5 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 52 63 47 73 51 / 50 30 0 0 10
Temple, Texas 51 66 48 73 47 / 40 20 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 50 63 45 74 47 / 40 30 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...




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