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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1132 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Aviation...
no significant changes to previous tafs with VFR conditions
expected at all taf sites through the forecast period. Winds will
remain southeast through Thursday morning before turning
west/southwest in advance of a weak cold front that will begin to
impinge on the region from the northeast Thursday afternoon. With
a relatively diffuse surface pattern in place...there will not be
an abrupt wind shift but rather a slow transition to light
variable winds followed by increasing easterly winds along and
behind the frontal zone. Regardless...wind speeds are expected to
remain at or below 10 kts so cross-wind issues for north/south
runways are not expected.

Guidance has backed off further on convective coverage associated
with the cold front over the next 24 to 48 hours. It is unlikely
that showers or thunderstorms will impact any taf sites on
Thursday with the frontal zone displaced to the east. The best
chances for any convective activity...although still slim...will
be on Friday afternoon just outside of the extended dfw taf.

Stalley

&&




Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/

A surface low seen on satellite over southwest Oklahoma has just
produced some new cells near our northwest counties. These should
move north-northwest slowly...but additional development may occur
over parts of Young and Montague counties through sunset.

Will allow the current heat advisory to expire this evening at 7
PM.

A weak cold front will move slowly into the County Warning Area on Thursday with
a low chance of afternoon convection mainly east of I-35/35e and
then over the northeastern half Thursday night. Have maintained
20-30 probability of precipitation across the County Warning Area on Friday as the front moves farther
into the southern counties during the day. Only 20 probability of precipitation over the
far western and southwestern counties on Saturday as the front
begins to move out of the County Warning Area. Although precipitable waters increase from around
1.60 inches on Thursday to around 2.00 inches on Friday...wind and
thermal profiles do not favor heavy precipitation production on
either day.

There is a potential for nocturnal convection reaching the far
northwestern counties Monday morning...but confidence in this one
model solution is not high enough to include in this forecast.

Temperatures will remain hot on Thursday but some cooler
temperatures are expected over the northern half on Friday. The
southeastern counties might meet heat advisory criteria tomorrow
and Friday if dewpoints do not mix out. Drier air will push into
the region behind the weak cold front and this will result in
slightly cooler temperatures over the northern half on Friday and
over the weekend. However...highs south of I-20 will not change
much and by Monday they are back to those seen over the past few
days. Hot temperatures return area wide Tuesday and Wednesday. 75




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 80 102 81 98 78 / 5 10 10 30 10
Waco, Texas 75 102 75 99 73 / 5 10 10 30 10
Paris, Texas 75 99 73 93 73 / 5 20 20 20 0
Denton, Texas 75 101 75 95 73 / 5 10 20 30 10
McKinney, Texas 75 101 75 95 73 / 5 20 20 30 5
Dallas, Texas 81 102 80 97 79 / 5 10 20 30 10
Terrell, Texas 76 101 76 97 73 / 5 20 20 30 10
Corsicana, Texas 77 103 78 99 75 / 5 10 10 30 10
Temple, Texas 75 101 74 100 73 / 5 10 10 30 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 73 101 75 98 75 / 5 10 10 30 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

77/25

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