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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1156 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Aviation...
/6z tafs/

VFR conditions expected through the period with light southeast
winds. A front will approach the area from the northwest late
tomorrow with some scattered showers and storms possible. Most of
these are expected to remain well northwest of the major airports.
The latest high res ttu WRF does bring some showers through the
area late tomorrow night but at this time will leave the mention
of precipitation out of the latest taf and watch the progression of this
front through the day tomorrow.

Dunn

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 402 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/
while the large-scale weather pattern over the Southern Plains
will undergo moderate changes between now and the middle of next
week...the net effect to north Texas's sensible weather will be
minor. In general...warm and predominately rain-free conditions
will be the rule as we exit the month of August.

In the near term...North Texas will remain on the northeast flank
of a large upper level ridge over nm/AZ. A shortwave trough
exiting the central rockies into the plains will help push a weak
cold front southward through OK on Friday. This front probably
won't have enough umphh to make it beyond the Red River...but
there may be sufficient low level convergence and forcing for
ascent to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
boundary over the counties adjacent to the Red River. Have kept
20 percent probability of precipitation for these areas Friday night...in keeping with the
previous forecast. The front should hang up...then dissipate over
OK later Sat...with weak southerly low flow persisting across North Texas
through early next week.

The other pattern evolution will involve the development of an
upper level low near southeast la by Friday afternoon...which should wobble
slowly westward through the weekend. There continue to be some
differences in the model solutions regarding this feature...some
of which may be due to the future track of ts Erika. In general
though...this low should remain southeast of our forecast area through
midweek...limiting our opportunities for precipitation.
However...am confident enough about some sparse diurnal shower and
thunderstorm development Tuesday-Thursday in the far southeast counties to
include in the latest forecast. At this time...am skeptical that
this low will manage to work any farther westward into
central/northern Texas next week...which would be required to
bring more substantial and beneficial rainfall to the area.

Afternoon high temperatures through the middle of next week should
remain fairly steady state...generally at or above normal values
each day. Fortunately...dewpoints through the period should remain
just a tad drier than they were a few days ago...keeping daytime
humidities from becoming too outrageous for this time of year.

Bradshaw

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 74 98 75 97 75 / 0 5 10 10 10
Waco, Texas 67 99 73 98 72 / 0 0 5 5 5
Paris, Texas 67 93 70 93 71 / 0 0 20 10 10
Denton, Texas 69 99 72 96 73 / 0 5 20 10 10
McKinney, Texas 67 97 72 95 72 / 0 5 10 10 10
Dallas, Texas 74 98 76 97 76 / 0 5 10 10 10
Terrell, Texas 68 96 72 94 72 / 0 0 10 5 10
Corsicana, Texas 69 97 72 95 72 / 0 0 5 5 5
Temple, Texas 68 98 71 97 71 / 0 0 5 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 68 98 72 97 70 / 0 5 10 10 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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