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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
644 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014


For the 12z tafs...ongoing precipitation this morning...and the
potential for redevelopment this afternoon and evening are the
primary forecast concerns.

Widespread light rain showers extended all along the Interstate 35
corridor at the time of this discussion. This activity was
dissipating from west to east while a new line of convection was
developing to the southeast. For this morning the expectations are
that the light rainfall over all area taf sites will continue to
dissipate as new development continues off to the southeast
through the middle-morning hours of the day. Will continue to watch
the new development near Throckmorton this morning...but think
that this middle-level activity will tend to dissipate by the middle-
morning hours as well. Have vcsh in the tafs to cover ongoing
activity until 14z in the dfw area...and through 15z near Waco as a

Afternoon thunderstorm chances seem to be dependent upon how much
cloud cover hang around over the region today. There are a couple
of upstream upper level disturbances that are expected to provide
weak lift over area taf sites from late this afternoon through
this the primary forecast concern is the amount of
instability available for thunderstorm develop at that time. If we
get some breaks in the clouds by early this afternoon...there is a
better chance at getting thunderstorms near the dfw area. Left
thunderstorms in the vicinity in the dfw area tafs from 22 to 03z expecting some breaks in
the clouds by early this afternoon. Waco is farther removed from
the lift associated with upper level disturbances late this
afternoon and this left thunderstorms in the vicinity out of the Waco tafs at
this time.



Previous discussion... /issued 349 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014/
an area of convection...northwest of a Bonham to Goldthwaite line
at this writing...will continue spreading southeast behind an
outflow boundary. should be weakening after sunrise
and most of it should be over by late morning. If the activity
continues beyond middle morning...then it would likely diminish the
potential for afternoon convection.

An upper trough will be moving across the Great Plains today and
then into the Great Lakes on Saturday. As the shortwave moves
through the region... the subtropical high of the past several
days will split and leave a weakness aloft through the weekend.
With moist...unstable air in place...we are expecting diurnal
heating to produce scattered convection this afternoon that will
linger into the evening hours. Some strong storms are possible due
to convective available potential energy around 1800 j/kg and Li/S of minus 3 to 5. Downburst
winds of 35 to 45 miles per hour are possible. Counties generally north of
I-20...especially the Red River counties...will have the best
chance of receiving a beneficial rainfall (1/2 inch or more) today
and tonight while some southwestern counties may be totally
missed. High temperatures will be influenced by the morning
convection...if it lasts through midday. Currently...have a range
of 92 to 95 across the County Warning Area.

For the weekend...expecting highs 90 to 96 on Saturday and 92 to
98 on Sunday. We/ll maintain a chance of convection areawide on
Saturday as much of the area should be able to reach convective
temperatures in the middle 90s. Probability of precipitation will be consolidated over the
far eastern counties on Sunday as upper support wanes west to

The subtropical high will re-connect across the southern states
early next week and persist through Thursday. This will bring a
return of dry weather and seasonably hot temperatures Monday
through Thursday. 75


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 94 76 94 77 96 / 70 40 30 10 10
Waco, Texas 95 74 94 76 96 / 80 30 30 10 10
Paris, Texas 92 72 90 72 92 / 70 50 30 10 20
Denton, Texas 94 74 94 75 97 / 60 40 20 10 10
McKinney, Texas 93 74 92 74 95 / 60 40 30 10 10
Dallas, Texas 94 77 93 77 96 / 70 40 30 10 10
Terrell, Texas 94 75 92 74 94 / 70 40 30 10 20
Corsicana, Texas 94 75 93 74 94 / 80 30 40 20 20
Temple, Texas 94 74 93 74 96 / 80 30 30 20 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 94 73 95 73 97 / 40 40 20 10 10


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...




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