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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1224 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

low level cyclonic flow and a surface low will remain over east and
southeast Texas through this forecast. For all sites...expecting MVFR
ceilings to continue lifting during the afternoon with VFR ceilings by
22z. Skies should go sct250 this evening and prevail overnight and
Saturday. However...there is a potential that kdal could see
bkn022 10-15z.

This flow pattern will keep low level winds at all sites northerly
this afternoon...light north to northeast tonight and
northeasterly 5-10 knots on Saturday. 75


extensive Post-frontal moisture will remain over North Texas today
and keep thick clouds in place which will limit the amount of
surface heating. Most locations are in the 70s now and we do not
expect much of a warm up. Have decided to lower high temperatures in the
southern zones and leave the remainder of temperatures alone for now.
Will also remove the morning drizzle/fog wording. 79


Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Friday Aug 1 2014/

The low pressure system that ushered in the cloud cover and rainfall
into North Texas yesterday has pushed southeast out of the area.
As of 08z this morning... the low was situated over southeastern
Texas and was providing heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast region of
the state. For our area cover will likely be the
only remnants and will continue for north and central Texas as a
result of the wrap around moisture from this system. Lingering
showers are possible this morning for our southeastern counties
but they would be spotty at best. The cloud cover will scatter
from west to east throughout the day. As a result...temperatures
will be slow to respond because of limited insolation.
Additionally...northeast winds will persist due to our proximity
to the aforementioned low and will help keep temperatures down on
Friday as well.

Saturday and Sunday appear to be pleasant for the area with light
east winds and partly cloudy skies. Because of the continued
northwest flow aloft...temperatures will be slow to climb over the
weekend so are expected to be in the low 90s. By the latter half of
the weekend...model guidance indicates the ridge over the
southwestern U.S. To begin nudging closer to North Texas. This
will inhibit convective activity and yield a rise in temperatures. does not appear that it will get close enough to
cause a rapid rise in temperatures so have kept highs in the middle
90s and lows in the low to middle 70s. Southerly flow is expected to
return to north and central Texas on Tuesday...tapping into the
warm and moist Gulf air.

As northwest flow aloft returns by midweek...enhanced rain
chances may also return. The European model (ecmwf) has backed off of the
advertised cold front that is showed in previous runs.
However...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a shortwave traversing
around a weakening ridge late in the week but the shortwave may
not get close enough to North Texas to provide cooler temperatures
and/or increased rain chances. Because there is disagreement among
model guidance and this is 6 days out...will have to monitor model
trends to see which solution prevails for late next week. For
now...have gone with 20 percent probability of precipitation for Thursday and Friday for
the northern half of the County Warning Area and nudged temperatures down a bit
from what is forecast for earlier in the week. Ajs


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 80 70 90 73 93 / 10 5 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 87 69 91 71 93 / 10 10 10 5 5
Paris, Texas 78 66 86 69 89 / 10 5 10 5 10
Denton, Texas 80 67 89 69 92 / 10 5 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 78 66 89 69 91 / 10 5 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 81 70 90 73 93 / 10 5 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 80 68 87 70 91 / 10 5 10 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 81 69 88 71 92 / 10 10 10 5 10
Temple, Texas 88 69 92 70 93 / 10 10 10 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 85 66 91 69 93 / 10 5 5 5 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...




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