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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
529 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Aviation...
/12z tafs/

Little change from previous forecast...as VFR conditions and
east-northeast winds 10 kts or less prevail the next 24 hours.

A surface boundary or weak cold front was well west of area
airports and moving into the South Plains and west-central Texas
early this morning. Isolated rain showers have developed from Wichita
Falls to okc...but are not expected to have any impacts at dfw
airports today. Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain through Saturday morning are
expected to remain mainly west of of the airports. Otherwise...
scattered cumulus 050-070 expected along with scattered high clouds.

05/

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 310 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015/
morning surface analysis and radar imagery reveals a boundary
moving through north central Texas. This is the weak cold front
that has been advertised over the last few days and it has
resulted in cooler temperatures mainly northeast of the metroplex.
More substantial dry air is still to the northeast and will filter
into the area later today. The main concern for today will be
whether or not we see any convective activity through the
afternoon. With a boundary in place and some weak forcing for
ascent expected...we should see some isolated showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. Best chances
should be along the Interstate 35 corridor and areas west of there
as much drier air should be moving in from the east. Unfortunately
it appears that the window for precipitation will be a short one
and most areas will not see anything. Have lowered probability of precipitation to 20
percent for the areas mentioned above. Despite the expected lack
of rainfall...it will feel slightly cooler today as temperatures
should top out in the middle/upper 90s but dewpoints will be
considerably lower by late afternoon.

On Saturday...what remains of the surface boundary and the
moisture pooled along it should be confined to our far western
counties. Will keep some low probability of precipitation across the extreme western
counties through Saturday afternoon...but any convection should be
isolated in nature. Saturday should be the most comfortable day of
the next week as highs will be in the upper 90s but dewpoints
should mix out into the middle 50s. This is the so called dry heat
and makes sweating very efficient at cooling the human body even
in light winds for those working or exercising outside. The
temporary reprieve wont last long though...as the upper ridge
builds back in over North Texas into next week and highs again
climb to or above 100 degrees with heat indices in the 102 to 105
degree range.

Dunn

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 97 75 97 77 98 / 20 10 10 10 5
Waco, Texas 98 73 99 73 99 / 20 10 10 10 5
Paris, Texas 94 69 96 72 97 / 10 10 10 10 5
Denton, Texas 97 71 97 73 97 / 20 10 10 10 5
McKinney, Texas 96 70 96 73 97 / 20 10 10 10 5
Dallas, Texas 98 76 98 78 98 / 20 10 10 10 5
Terrell, Texas 97 72 98 73 99 / 20 10 10 10 5
Corsicana, Texas 96 72 98 73 99 / 20 10 10 10 5
Temple, Texas 98 71 99 73 99 / 20 10 10 10 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 99 71 95 73 97 / 20 20 10 10 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

05/91

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