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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
311 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015

Discussion...
after a very active pattern of late...north and central Texas
will experience one additional unsettled day before enjoying a
sustained period of very mild...pleasant weather.

The sprawling upper level low currently centered near Lubbock
will track eastward along the Red River...reaching Arkansas by
Tuesday evening. A line of ragged-looking convection has developed
along a north-south convergence line from near Bowie to
Stephenville through middle afternoon. This band is still expected to
move eastward into the I-35 corridor by late afternoon/early
evening...with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
forming over eastern North Texas in an area of good isentropic
ascent. We're maintaining high probability of precipitation across much of the northern
and eastern counties to handle this precipitation for most of the
night. Additional light showers will likely form over western
North Texas...into Gainesville/Denton/dfw...closer to daybreak
Tuesday as wraparound moisture evolves on the backside of the
upper low along the Red River.

Surface and mixed layer convective available potential energy are now running in the 500-2000
jkg-1 range south of a Waco to Palestine line...coincident with
good deep layer shear. Would be more concerned about additional
severe weather in this area...but latest visible satellite trends are
not impressive- depicting widespread cumulus field with little
vertical development. Westerly surface flow has also surged
eastward past Waco and Cameron...so storm development will need to
initiate shortly along this convergence line if its going to
happen at all this afternoon. Farther north along the I-35
corridor from Hillsboro to Gainesville...convective available potential energy are minimal/non-
existent...so do not expect any severe weather in these areas.

Tuesday promises to be a rather cool...gray day with breezy north
winds and off-and-on showers spinning around the backside of the
departing upper low. Will hang onto pretty high probability of precipitation over the
northern and northeast counties...tapering to the south. Most of
the light rain should diminish from west to east during the
afternoon...with gradual clearing Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
Temperatures Tuesday will remain well below seasonal norms...with
values mostly in the lower to middle 60s.

Rest of the forecast looks dry...mild and pleasant as upper
ridging evolves over the Southern Plains. Next possible shot at
rainfall looks to be next Monday...when a weak shortwave slides
into the area from the west on zonal flow.

Bradshaw

&&

Aviation...
/issued 101 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/
/18z tafs/

Concerns continue to be timing of both scattered convective
chances this afternoon and trending winds and ceilings through the
entire forecast through Tuesday morning. Both an upper level low
over the Texas Panhandle/western OK border and a surface low over far
western North Texas will impact this forecast in terms of
convection and wind direction/speeds.

For dfw metropolitan airports...the main convective window will be
between 19z to 22z or 23z...as the surface low reorganizes to the
south of the metroplex in response to middle level height falls with
the upper low wobbling over the Texas Panhandle...before finally
lifting slowly east across the western Red River valley area this
evening and overnight. With high res guidance varying slightly on
coverage and low confidence on storm coverage...have decided to
continue thunderstorms in the vicinity wording with tempo MVFR visibility in showers. After the
convective period...a brief window for VFR conditions with winds
transitioning around to the NE...then north around 10 kts looking
likely in the early evening. Overnight...MVFR ceilings with tempo IFR
ceilings return and linger through Tuesday morning with the upper low
tracking slowly east toward the arklatex. North winds will become
15-20 kts with the increasing pressure gradient with a few gusts
to near 25 kts.

For Waco...forcing will not be quite as strong with the surface
low tracking right across the area this afternoon. This area could
be an initiation point for isolated-scattered convection by 19z
to 20z...but only lasting a few hours before better large-scale
forcing pushes east of the area. Conditions overnight and Tuesday
morning will be similar to the dfw airports with MVFR/IFR ceilings
entraining back into the area and north winds increasing to
between 15-20 kts with higher gusts.

05/



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 55 66 50 75 53 / 60 40 5 0 10
Waco, Texas 52 64 46 76 49 / 40 20 0 0 5
Paris, Texas 50 60 44 70 50 / 80 60 5 0 5
Denton, Texas 51 64 46 74 48 / 60 40 5 0 10
McKinney, Texas 53 63 48 74 50 / 70 50 5 0 5
Dallas, Texas 54 64 49 75 53 / 60 40 5 0 10
Terrell, Texas 55 62 48 74 52 / 70 50 5 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 56 63 47 73 51 / 60 40 0 0 10
Temple, Texas 56 66 48 73 47 / 30 20 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 52 63 45 74 47 / 50 30 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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