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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
353 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Discussion...

The weather pattern across the region for the next week remains
progressive and active with several chances for rain/storms...but
unfortunately the chance for significant rainfall does not appear
favorable. Warm weather is expected to persist through Friday and
then a cold front will lower temperatures for a few days.

Mostly cloudy skies have prevailed across a good part of the
region today due to a combination of high and low clouds.
Temperatures this afternoon vary from the low 70s in the east
where the low clouds have hung in longer...to the low 80s in the
west where thin high clouds have been located. A shortwave is
moving across the Texas Panhandle with weak middle and upper level
ridging over the north and central Texas areas. Some elevated
returns may appear on regional radars late this afternoon and
evening but most precipitation...if not all...is expected to
evaporate before reaching the ground due to dry air in the middle and
lower levels of the atmosphere. A warmer night is expected tonight
with lows mostly in the lower 60s...but a few locations may dip
into the upper 50s around daybreak.

An upper level low currently located west of Baja California California will
move into Mexico Tuesday and then across the region Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Many of the models are producing quantitative precipitation forecast across the
region on Tuesday but a decent cap favors a dry forecast for most
of the area tomorrow. However...a dryline will be located west of
the area tomorrow afternoon as large scale lift begins to spread
east across the state in advance of the upper level disturbance.
Temperatures near the dryline and across our western zones will
warm into the 80s which may be enough to weaken the cap and allow
a few storms to develop. In our western counties...forecast
soundings keep the cap in place during the afternoon but do weaken
the cap around sunset. If a storm or two develops on the
dryline...they could move into our western counties during the
late afternoon or early evening hours. Have adjusted probability of precipitation for
tomorrow afternoon to only 20 percent in the west and Northwest.
Cape and shear values support a threat for strong or possibly
severe storms with a main threat for large hail.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will spread across the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The best rain chances will be over
the eastern half of the County Warning Area Wednesday afternoon where the moisture
depth is greatest. Additional isolated strong or severe
storms are possible across the region during the day on
Wednesday. The rainfall is not expected to be widespread and
amounts are not expected to be more than a quarter of an inch on
average. Some areas will see more than a quarter of an inch of
rainfall under a strong or severe storm but others will not
receive any rainfall at all. As the shortwave moves east of the
region Wednesday evening...the rain chances will end.

A few thunderstorms are also possible on Thursday with a decent
threat for severe weather if the storms develop. The dryline is
expected to surge to a location east of Interstate 35/35w Thursday
afternoon while temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower
90s. Cape values along and ahead of the dryline are forecast to be
over 2000-3000 j/kg with cin values weakening to breakable levels
in the middle to late afternoon hours. Shear values are decent too
but the missing piece for storms may be a decent forcing
mechanism. The latest model runs do not indicate strong surface
convergence along the dryline but some of the models are
indicating a weak disturbance possibly moving over the dryline in
the afternoon hours. Any weak disturbance could provide enough
lift to break the cap and allow storms to develop. This situation
needs further watching and analysis as there could be severe
storms along the dryline on Thursday. For now...will keep a 10 pop
for the afternoon hours as none of the models are resolving storm
initiation and the potential for storm development may be
isolated.

On Friday...a cold front will slide across the region with
additional rain and thunderstorm chances along the front. The
latest European model (ecmwf) is about 6 hours faster with the timing of the front
and significantly drier over the GFS. Due to the differences in
the models...will keep probability of precipitation on the lower end at 20-30 percent.
Saturday is expected to be dry but rain chances return Saturday
night through Monday. The upper level flow will transition back to
southwest flow aloft as another upper level trough develops over
the West Coast. The models quickly return moisture back to the
region but the moisture return may be too aggressive and too quick
in the wake of the cold front. Better rain chances are likely
Sunday night into Monday.

Jldunn

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1254 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/
concerns...MVFR ceilings returning overnight tonight at all of
the taf sites...with some IFR ceilings possible around 12z at
Waco.

A warm front has lifted northwest to just north of a Brownwood to
Granbury to Denton to McKinney line as of 17z. MVFR ceilings will
improve to VFR by 20-21z. South winds around 10 knots will prevail
through daybreak...with speeds increasing to around 15 knots by
18z Tuesday. MVFR ceilings will return tonight...with ovc020
expected in the metroplex 09-18z...and ovc015 at Waco 07-18z at
Waco. Ceilings may fall to around bkn008 at Waco between 11 and
14z.

58



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 64 81 64 75 66 / 10 10 20 30 10
Waco, Texas 62 80 64 77 65 / 10 10 20 30 10
Paris, Texas 60 75 61 73 62 / 10 10 20 40 20
Denton, Texas 63 80 63 75 65 / 10 10 20 30 10
McKinney, Texas 62 79 62 73 65 / 10 10 20 40 10
Dallas, Texas 64 80 64 74 66 / 10 10 20 30 10
Terrell, Texas 61 78 62 73 63 / 10 10 20 40 20
Corsicana, Texas 62 78 63 76 64 / 10 10 20 40 20
Temple, Texas 62 80 64 78 63 / 10 10 20 30 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 60 83 63 78 64 / 10 20 30 30 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

58/82

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