Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY...TAKING OLD MAN WINTER ALONG
WITH IT. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...A STOUT UPPER HIGH OVER CA/NV WILL
ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP READILY INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM READILY TO
BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES. 

A CUT OFF DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE STRONG WESTERN U.S UPPER HIGH
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY MODIFY SLOWLY DUE TO THE GULF CONTINENTAL
SHELF BEING SCOURED OUT BY THE RECENT ARCTIC INTRUSION THIS PAST
FEW DAYS. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY
SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING ELEVATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICIY ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

DUE TO MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS REALLY NOT RECOVERING MUCH...WE
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD WILL BE AT/OR JUST ABOVE AN
INCH ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
RELATIVELY RICHER. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR THE FURTHER NORTH YOU
GO TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STABLE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
LIGHT NORTHEAST. INSTABILITY ALOFT IS NEGLIBLE AS WELL DUE TO THE
LACK OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

A BROAD...BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER MID-LATE WEEK AND MAY
WOBBLE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG WHILE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH
A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
AREA WITH UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTH FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/
NORTH TEXAS CURRENTLY RESTS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTING RIDGE IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND VFR
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THIS FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM
KENTUCKY SOUTHWEST INTO EAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  31  58  40  53  40 /   5  10  10  50  40 
WACO, TX              29  61  39  50  41 /   5  10  40  60  60 
PARIS, TX             26  57  40  51  38 /   5  10  10  60  30 
DENTON, TX            29  58  38  53  38 /   5   5  10  50  40 
MCKINNEY, TX          26  56  40  52  37 /   5   5  10  50  40 
DALLAS, TX            33  59  40  53  41 /   5  10  10  50  40 
TERRELL, TX           27  60  40  51  38 /   5  10  20  60  50 
CORSICANA, TX         31  60  37  50  42 /   5  10  30  60  60 
TEMPLE, TX            29  61  40  51  41 /   5  10  40  60  60 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     27  59  38  58  41 /   5  10  10  40  40 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations