Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
320 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015
the main weather feature affecting the Continental U.S. This morning is a
strong shortwave trough currently dropping southeast out of
Saskatchewan into the northern and Central Plains. A 500 mb ridge
currently resides over North Texas and should keep the area dry
today. However...the ridge will weaken over the next 48 hours as
the trough progresses farther south and east through The Heart of
At the surface...a cold front will accompany the upper level
system...and make its way south towards the Red River region of
North Texas and Oklahoma Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient has
developed in advance of the front...which will lead to
unseasonably strong south winds today across the region. Area VAD
wind profiles are indicating a low level jet around 40 knots at 2000
feet. Solar heating will result in some of this energy mixing to
the surface...producing wind speeds sustained at 15-20 miles per hour later
this morning with gusts around 30 miles per hour periodically through the day.
It is a bit unusual to be approaching Wind Advisory criteria this
time of year...and we should become close at times today. Since
the most recent model guidance is keeping US just below
criteria...we will hold off issuing an advisory at this time.
Velocities will decrease around sunset...but it should still
remain breezy overnight.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will start as early as
tonight across the northwestern counties...as modest ascent
associated with the upper trough begins to affect the area. Better
chances will occur on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the front sags
down to the Red River area...and a second upper level system /a
southern stream shortwave/ approaches from the west.
There will be some potential for heavy rain for a few of our
counties Tuesday and Tuesday night. The front will provide focus
for training thunderstorms ... the location of the heavy rain
will depend on the location of the front. A few models shift the
front into the northwestern portions of the County Warning Area...but this is
difficult to swallow given the upper level pattern and time of
year. It is more likely that both the front and heaviest rain
will remain just to our northwest...but outflow from these storms
should push far enough southeast to bring the possibility of
scattered convection to the I-20 corridor. Similar to the previous
forecast sets...we will keep highest probability of precipitation over the northwestern
most locations and taper them to slight chance along a Sulphur
Springs...Dallas...Goldthwaite line Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Severe weather is unlikely...but a few strong storms with gusty
winds are possible.
Both the northern and southern stream systems will move east of
the region on Wednesday. We will keep some low probability of precipitation along the Red
River Wednesday to account for the possibility of lingering
mesoscale boundaries and isolated convection. Ridging will
intensify aloft during the second half of the week and persist
beyond the weekend. This should result in hot and dry weather for
North Texas Thursday through the early part of next week.
/issued 1126 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/
concerns...MVFR conditions Monday morning in Waco and the
With stronger southerly flow than we had 24 hours ago...expect
MVFR stratus to spread into the Waco area earlier than it did
Sunday morning. So have placed ovc015 in the kact taf starting at
08z... and indicating that ceilings will lift to bkn025 by 16z.
With deeper vertical mixing by midday Monday...the stratus should
break up giving them VFR conditions around 17z Monday.
The main area of stratus moved just east of the metroplex Sunday
morning...but expect it to move into the metroplex 10-11z Monday
with bkn015 indicated in the metroplex tafs. Have brought the
metroplex tafs to bkn025 by 16z and to VFR by 17z. MVFR ceilings
will spread back north into the metroplex taf sites by 09z
The surface pressure gradient will support stronger winds
tomorrow...so have gone with 18018g28kt starting at 17z for the
metroplex and Waco taf sites. The gusts should dampen toward
sunset Monday but sustained winds over 15 knots will prevail
through Monday night.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 93 78 92 78 91 / 5 10 20 20 20
Waco, Texas 93 75 91 76 92 / 5 5 10 5 5
Paris, Texas 90 75 90 74 88 / 5 10 30 30 20
Denton, Texas 92 76 91 74 89 / 5 10 30 30 20
McKinney, Texas 91 76 91 76 89 / 5 10 20 20 20
Dallas, Texas 93 79 94 78 91 / 5 10 20 20 20
Terrell, Texas 92 74 91 75 91 / 5 5 10 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 92 75 92 75 92 / 5 5 10 5 5
Temple, Texas 91 76 91 75 92 / 5 5 10 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 92 74 90 73 89 / 5 20 30 40 20