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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
255 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

water vapor imagery this morning shows that the upper low which brought
excessive rainfall to West Texas continues to retrograde and is
now located west of the Baja California peninsula. As this feature continues
drifting upper level ridge will amplify in its
wake...allowing warm and dry weather to persist across much of
the plains for the next several days.

Before we get into the anomalously warm conditions on Sunday and
Monday...we will have a slightly cooler and drier Saturday thanks
to the weak cold front that moved southward through the region
yesterday. Some patchy fog is possible early Saturday morning
roughly north of a Graham to Sherman line. This is due to slightly
moist surface conditions from yesterday/S rainfall coupled with
clear skies overnight yielding efficient radiational cooling
allowing a nearly saturated layer to develop near the surface. Any
patchy fog that does develop in this area should quickly mix out
after sunrise. Otherwise...skies today will be mostly clear to the
north with some scattered middle/high clouds to the south.

Return flow will ensue by late Saturday night/Sunday morning as
the surface high pushes east. This will cause strong warm
advection due to surface winds turning back to the south/southwest and
increasing to 10 to 20 miles per hour on Sunday. When combined with upper
ridging and large scale subsidence...Sunday will be sunny and very
warm...with highs in the middle 90s approaching record territory.

The same anomalously warm conditions can be expected on Monday
with breezy southwest winds and highs once again in the 90s.
However...a cold front is expected to move into North Texas on
Monday afternoon/evening. Depending on the exact timing of this
front...high temperatures could creep a couple degrees warmer in
the afternoon just ahead of the front. It appears this frontal passage will
be mostly dry...although moisture pooling along and ahead of the front
could result in sufficient instability to support isolated
thunderstorm chances for areas south of an Athens to Killeen line
on Monday night.

While Monday/S cold front will knock the temperatures down a few
degrees for Tuesday...the main story will be the much drier air
behind it. Dewpoints will decrease into the 30s and low 40s with
gusty northerly winds. This will likely cause increased fire
weather concerns next week with minimum afternoon humidities as
low as 15 to 20 percent. This dry air will also have a large
impact on overnight low temperatures. With clear skies and fairly
light winds expected overnight...very efficient radiational
cooling will allow temperatures to plummet. Have continued to
undercut guidance on low temperatures by a few degrees for the
middle portion of next week.

High temperatures will bounce back into the 80s and low 90s for
Wednesday and Thursday with the upper ridge holding strong to our
west. Friday/Saturday will be the next forecast challenge as
extended guidance disagrees on the amplification of the upper
ridge by Friday. The European model (ecmwf) is a bit more amplified and keeps the
ridge a bit further west...allowing a cold front to make its way
into North Texas on Friday...while the GFS maintains broader
ridging and less amplification which keeps this front in the
Central Plains. The European model (ecmwf) solution would support a temperature
drop of several degrees for Friday while the GFS would support
continued upper 80s and low 90s. For now...have split the
difference on temperatures for the extended forecast until a
clearer picture comes into focus. Regardless...rain chances
appear bleak for North Texas for the next several days.



/issued 1144 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015/

For the 06z tafs...VFR conditions are expected through the

The primary aviation weather concern over the next 24 hours is a
wind shift from north-northeasterly flow to southeasterly winds
late Saturday afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds will become
light and variable during the peak heating hours of the day
Saturday. Winds should become established out of the southeast
after sunset as high pressure moves east of the region.

With skies clearing out near the Red River will have to watch for
some early morning fog development near the dfw area. Winds are
expected to remain strong enough to prevent fog development...but
will watch for fog potential overnight and possibly amend the tafs
for early morning fog if winds become weaker than expected.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 85 66 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 5
Waco, Texas 88 63 95 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 10
Paris, Texas 81 55 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 10
Denton, Texas 83 61 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney, Texas 83 59 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dallas, Texas 84 66 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
Terrell, Texas 84 59 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
Corsicana, Texas 86 62 93 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
Temple, Texas 87 61 93 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 84 62 94 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...




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