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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1134 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Aviation...
southeast to southerly flow will prevail through this forecast
with VFR ceilings at or above 10kft most of the time. There is a potential for
MVFR ceilings 2-3 kft on Wednesday morning 12-16z...especially at kact.

With warm moist air in place and instability increasing on
Wednesday...showers and thunderstorms should develop south of kact
tomorrow morning and lift over the taf site during the afternoon
and evening hours. Will include vcsh for kact late Wednesday morning
and during the afternoon with -tsra possible late afternoon and
during the evening hours.

The metroplex sites will have a potential for vcsh on Wednesday
afternoon...but any terminal could see a brief rain showers or two during the
afternoon hours. Confidence is not high enough to include ts
across portions of the metroplex for Wednesday afternoon or
evening at the moment. This may change in later taf issuances. 75

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 350 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014/
a moist tropical air mass remains in place across north and
central Texas this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have been occurring south of the I-20 corridor...with isolated
convection to the north. Expect this activity to diminish in areal
coverage after sunset...thus have left some 30 percent probability of precipitation
through this evening south of an Eastland to Athens line with
teens and 20s farther to the north.

We will continue to have middle and upper level moisture spread
across the region from what is currently still Tropical Storm
Odile through the end of the week. This along with weak short
waves in the upper level flow and diurnal heating will drive the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the work week. Confidence in the model GFS and
NAM qpfs is low as they generate some 5 inch plus bombs of
precipitation across the southwestern zones Wednesday night
through Thursday.

Rain chances will continue into the weekend as an upper level
trough/remnants of Odile move across the Central Plains. A weak
cold front is expected to move into North Texas before daybreak
Sunday and move through the southeastern zones by sunset. The
European model (ecmwf) and GFS keep a large area of rain over the Southern Plains
through Tuesday...but this looks unrealistic...so have shown the
forecast area drying out after Sunday night. 58

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 76 91 75 90 73 / 20 30 20 40 20
Waco, Texas 73 89 74 84 71 / 40 40 40 50 30
Paris, Texas 71 89 72 88 68 / 20 20 20 30 20
Denton, Texas 72 91 72 90 70 / 20 20 20 30 20
McKinney, Texas 71 90 72 89 70 / 20 30 20 30 20
Dallas, Texas 75 91 75 90 73 / 20 30 20 40 20
Terrell, Texas 74 90 74 89 72 / 20 30 20 30 20
Corsicana, Texas 74 90 73 87 71 / 20 30 40 50 20
Temple, Texas 71 88 73 83 70 / 40 50 40 50 30
Mineral Wells, Texas 71 89 71 89 68 / 20 30 20 40 20

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

75/

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